No clear favorite. Both Sony and Nintendo expect PS5 and Switch 2 to sell 15 million units this FY. So it will basically mostly come down to Nintendo's production capabilities if they manage to sell more than their forecast, Sony won't have any answer to not having GTA 6 this FY..

This thread is not about which will ship more this FY though, it's about the calendar year and the PS5 has already shipped nearly 3m by the end of March with another couple months to go for it before the Switch 2 is even out. There would be good debate to be had about the FY with the initial forecasts being exactly the same for both. I expect Nintendo to have a better shot of beating their forecast but I'm not super confident in that expectation.

What a load of pessimism. You people telling me I’m too bold for my high projections: Nintendo has reportedly (by Bloomberg) ramped up production capabilities to 20mil for F’26. If NSW2 hit this figure, then that’d likely place NSW2 well above PS5 for C’25, and that would put NSW2 only 3mil below my original (albeit very optimistic lol) projection.

Rol was spot on for labelling the 15mil projection as a “floor.” Nintendo hasn’t changed their projection; they are being conservative in estimates.

@firebush03 I agree and I'm optimistic that they are just being conservative with their estimate, as they were in the first full FY for Switch 1.

This battle looks much closer than people realize. PS5 shipped 2.8 million between Jan 2025 to March 2025. 15 million has been forecasted for the fiscal year which could look like this (Q1/April 2025 to June 2025 of 2.5 million, Q2/July 2025 to September 2025 of 3 million, Q3/October 2025 to December 2025 of 7 million, and Q4/January 2026 to March 2026). Setting Q4 to the side, this means 2.8 + 2.5 + 3 + 7 would be calendar year 2025 shipments for PS5 for a total of 15.3 million.

Switch 2 launching in early June 2025 means it gets a Q1 shipment. Switch 1 launched early March with 2.74 million. Switch 2 seems to have a much bigger launch prepared so between 4 to 5 million for Q1 might be possible. That would compare well to PS5's ~5.3 million (2.8 million + 2.5 million prediction for PS5 Q1). Q2 for Switch 2 could be in the 4 million territory closing the gap further compared to PS5's ~3 million in Q2 and ofcourse I see no reason to expect Switch 2 not to outsell PS5 this holiday.

This should be a closer battle than people expect. 4 million Q1 (June 2025), 4 million Q2, and 8 million Q3 doesn't sound too bad for Switch 2 and could be just enough to top PS5.

@Phenomajp13 Instead of 4m for Q2 and 4m for Q3, I could see 5m or even 6m for Q2 and then something like 3m for Q3. But I do agree with at least 8m for Q4. Switch 1 in Q4 2017 shipped 7.23m, so I do anticipate Switch 2 will be higher than that this Q4.

Q3 is the holiday period, it's definitely selling better than 3m. Q1 is June 2025 (because Switch 2 launches in June), Q2 is July 2025 to September 2025, and Q3 is October 2025 to December 2025. This would be all of 2025 for Switch 2.

@Phenomajp13 You're right. I just got them mixed up, but ultimately we are both talking about the same thing (calendar year 2025).

It seems Nintendo might have an internal projection of 20 million for the fiscal year. Which puts them clearly in the advantage chair if this proves accurate.

https://www.techradar.com/gaming/nintendo-has-partnered-with-samsung-to-increase-switch-2-chip-production-which-could-see-the-console-selling-20-million-units-by-march-2026

Switch 2 day 1 shipments in Japan = 1,227,670

So, it looks like Switch 2, in Japan at least, has already caught up and well exceeded PS5 for 2025. PS5 has sold 359,329 in Japan, which means Switch shipments are about 3.4 times higher than PS5 sales in Japan for the year - 1 day for Switch 2 vs 5 months for PS5.