This battle looks much closer than people realize. PS5 shipped 2.8 million between Jan 2025 to March 2025. 15 million has been forecasted for the fiscal year which could look like this (Q1/April 2025 to June 2025 of 2.5 million, Q2/July 2025 to September 2025 of 3 million, Q3/October 2025 to December 2025 of 7 million, and Q4/January 2026 to March 2026). Setting Q4 to the side, this means 2.8 + 2.5 + 3 + 7 would be calendar year 2025 shipments for PS5 for a total of 15.3 million.
Switch 2 launching in early June 2025 means it gets a Q1 shipment. Switch 1 launched early March with 2.74 million. Switch 2 seems to have a much bigger launch prepared so between 4 to 5 million for Q1 might be possible. That would compare well to PS5's ~5.3 million (2.8 million + 2.5 million prediction for PS5 Q1). Q2 for Switch 2 could be in the 4 million territory closing the gap further compared to PS5's ~3 million in Q2 and ofcourse I see no reason to expect Switch 2 not to outsell PS5 this holiday.
This should be a closer battle than people expect. 4 million Q1 (June 2025), 4 million Q2, and 8 million Q3 doesn't sound too bad for Switch 2 and could be just enough to top PS5.
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