Yeah I also read that as "these games will release on Switch 1" rather than "these games will not have a Switch 2 version". They could still be cross-gen.

Besides which, even if they're not, Switch 2 will still be able to play them through backwards compatibility.

Thats true but that means the Switch 1 will still get first party exclusives. Yes they will be playable on Switch 2 as well via BC but the fact 150 million+ people can play MP4B and there will probably be no native Switch 2 version (at least not day 1) wich speaks volumes. But i can imagine an enhanced port in 2026.

Furukawa said: "We will continue developing Nintendo Switch titles, but launching exclusive games for Nintendo Switch 2 is essential for its sucess."

A Switch 2 exclusive game won't be running on Switch 1. Their important really big titles (MK9, 3D Mario, Zelda...) will be Switch 2 only amyway. MP4 will launch on Nintendo Switch. I think if they where to make it cross gen day 1, he would have said so. The Switch 2 is unveiled, no point in keeping it a secret now. Thats how i got it. But fact is: Switch 1 support will continue and not be axed right after Switch 2 launch.

At this point 160 million is no doubt happening.

The quote doesn't rule out MP4 being crossgen. Whether it is or not remains to be seen. Maybe, maybe not.

Nintendo is clearly choosing to keep Switch 2 software plans under wraps until the April 2nd Direct.

It's very much like how in 2015-16 when Breath of the Wild was still only known as 'Zelda Wii U' and we knew next to nothing about the game other than it was in development for Wii U and it was open-world.

By this point, the Switch was still only known as 'NX'. And everyone and their grandmother assumed they were going to pull another 'Twilight Princess' where they release 'Zelda Wii U' on both Wii U AND NX. I even recall the Nintendo Direct in Nov 2015 where Reggie kept repeating "New Zelda for Wii U... for Wii U... for Wii U," and it was pointed out by multiple people "You didn't say it WASN'T for NX, Reggie!"

Sure enough, look what happened.

Either Pokemon or Prime 4 is going to be cross-gen. I'm sure of it. They're just waiting until that Switch 2 Direct on April 2nd to officially announce it. I'm leaning towards Metroid Prime 4 because that game I think benefits the most of getting an enhanced Switch 2 version and to be the game that serves as the definitive tech demo/demonstration of Switch 2's leap over Switch 1.
Pokemon will likely remain Switch 1 exclusive just because of how Game Freak and Pokemon Co. are stubborn with moving on to next gen hardware. (Black/White 2 released on the DS in 2012; Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon released on the 3DS in 2017. And they likely want to give Switch 1 one last true major exclusive before moving on to Switch 2.

Which makes me think Pokémon Gen 10 will be cross gen when it launches (likley) in November 2026.

Not happening. Not with Gen 10 anyway.

Game Freak may take longer than most to move on to next gen, but when they DO jump in with the next generations, it's all in.

X/Y on the 3DS in 2013; Let's Go and Sw/Sh on the Switch in 2018 and 2019.

I do think a cross-gen Pokemon game is coming, but it's not gonna be either Legends Z-A or Gen 10.

Once we get to that Pokemon Presents at the end of the month, I think we get 3 major things:

1) Trailer and footage of Legends Z-A - Switch 1 exclusive, releasing in Q2/Q3 2025.

2) Announcement that Pokemon Gen 10 currently in development exclusively for Gen 2.

3) Pokemon Black/White remakes releasing cross-gen for Switch 1 and Switch 2, releasing in Holiday 2025.

As much as people are annoyed of Switch 1, history contradicts this: Like you said: Pokémon Black 2/ White 2 was coming exclusivley for Nintendo DS in late 2012 nearly 2 years Nintendo 3DS launch in march 2011. Ok, 3DS got Pokémon Ultra Sun/ Ultra Moon in late 2017 the year Switch launched, maybe you see a connection here, but in fact the Switch has a far more healthy decline than the Nintendo DS had and it will have better legs than the 3DS had 2018 onwards (except you believe the Switch will do ~2,5 million or less this year).

I don't know how big a influence Nintendo has over the Pokemon company, but Nintendo would probably want gen 10 to be Switch 2 exclusive, given the big console selling potential new mainline Pokemon games have in Japan and WW.