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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch 2 Sales Predictions: Next PS2 or Wii U Disaster?

 

How Many Units Will the Switch 2 Sell Worldwide in its Lifetime?

Under 20 million (Wii U 2.0 disaster?) 1 1.37%
 
20–50 million (Destined for an early death) 0 0%
 
50–75 million (Bit of a disappointment) 1 1.37%
 
75–100 million (Solid, but not legendary) 10 13.70%
 
100–150 million (Switch 2.0 confirmed) 49 67.12%
 
150 million+ (IT PRINTS MONEY!) 12 16.44%
 
Total:73
Norion 1 day ago
curl-6 said:
Norion said:

They could potentially become less niche in the coming years. Perhaps a Steam Deck 2 two or three years from now is pushed more by Valve with more advertising and it showing up in shops for example. Though the impact on the Switch 2 would still unlikely to be major due to Nintendo's IPs.

Even with more of a push, a handheld gaming PC is still just a relatively niche offering compared to a hybrid console from Nintendo. Hardly anyone is going to be dissuaded from a Switch 2 purchase by the existence of Steam Deck 2.

Still relatively niche is right though I do think depending on how popular they become in the coming years that something like 5-10 million Switch owners could decide to not bother getting a Switch 2 due to them. The Switch 2 isn't gonna be outright threatened by them though of course, Mario, Pokemon, Zelda and so on are just too way strong for that. It's just interesting to think about what the potential impact could be now that Nintendo no longer has a complete monopoly in the handheld gaming space.

Hardstuck-Platinum said:
Norion said:

Yeah and the Switch was totally doomed to fail due to being as expensive as a PS4 or Xbox One. Do you have any arguments other than the price being higher and the lack of innovation? Cause the success of the PS5 despite being more expensive than the PS4 and not being that different from the PS4 other than being more powerful shows how absurd your reasoning is. Consoles very clearly don't need to innovate much to follow up a big success with another big success.

When you have a powerful console, you don't need innovation or a low price. When you don't though, you have to make up for the deficit with innovations or a low price. I can't see why anyone would disagree with that.

The Switch 2 is gonna be a decently powerful handheld console but putting that aside what evidence is there that power matters so much for this?



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curl-6 1 day ago
Norion said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

When you have a powerful console, you don't need innovation or a low price. When you don't though, you have to make up for the deficit with innovations or a low price. I can't see why anyone would disagree with that.

The Switch 2 is gonna be a decently powerful handheld console but putting that aside what evidence is there that power matters so much for this?

Don't worry about Platinum, he's pretty much here solely to troll Nintendo.

Last edited by curl-6 - 1 day ago

Norion 1 day ago
curl-6 said:
Norion said:

The Switch 2 is gonna be a decently powerful handheld console but putting that aside what evidence is there that power matters so much for this?

Don't worry about Platinum, he's pretty much here solely to troll Nintendo.

Oh I know that he has very clear biases. I can enjoy getting into debates like that as long as there's at least some attempt at making an argument.



Mr.GameCrazy 1 day ago
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

I think it will do 3DS numbers at most. 3DS was a much bigger success than people give it credit for, so even saying that is very generous towards switch 2. The Switch 1 had no competition, but the Switch 2 has so much that it's a really hard sell. 3DS was discounted to 180$ shortly after it's launch due to poor sales, so how is a minimum 399$ system going to out sell a 180$ one?

Are you referring to devices like the Steam Deck and the ROG Ally? I ask because I don't think they're gonna affect the Switch 2 that much.



Wman1996 12 hours ago
firebush03 said:

i’ll be bold and say >150mil. Much stronger start than NSW, might lose some ground midgen, but it’ll prolly hold similar leg strength. I expect NSW2 to do about as good — if not, a slight bit better (or possibly worse) — than NSW. (Not to mention: The competition is currently self-imploding…)

If PS6 is a big step down in sales from PS5 (and somehow a good chunk goes to Switch 2) and Switch 2 isn't replaced until about 9 years or more in, I could see Switch 2 selling 160 million or more.

But all very early speculation with what little we know. I pretty much expect Switch 2 to have a mid-gen refresh like DS and 3DS did. And shoot, even Game Boy Color if you consider that a "Pro" version of Game Boy. DS was a massive success and Nintendo still bothered with DSi and DSi XL instead of being satisfied with DS Lite. It's all but confirmed Switch Pro was going to be a thing and was replaced with Switch OLED instead because of the global supply chain crisis. Why bother with a Switch Pro when Switch is selling like crazy, and parts are expensive?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 40 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Kyuu 8 hours ago
firebush03 said:

i’ll be bold and say >150mil. Much stronger start than NSW, might lose some ground midgen, but it’ll prolly hold similar leg strength. I expect NSW2 to do about as good — if not, a slight bit better (or possibly worse) — than NSW. (Not to mention: The competition is currently self-imploding…)

The competition is not self-imploding...

People always exaggerate Playstation's missteps and failures (part of the reason why Xbox gets massively overestimated) and often exaggerate Nintendo's. PS5 is in some ways superior to the PS4, which btw was heavily criticized and mislabeled as "indie station" for the first 2 or 3 years. PS5 was excessively trolled since its specs were revealed and until launch. Both consoles crushed their direct competition.

Are there flaws, misdirections, and maybe a couple of outrageous mistakes? Of course! But to depict this as "self-implosion" is hyperbole. If you consider Playstation as Switch 2 competition, then you may as well consider PC (desktops, laptops, and handhelds) as competition too. PC and to a less extent Playstation are both in fact growing. I do suspect that if Sony continues to make major mistakes and doesn't pricedrop their consoles when necessary (the immediate threat is PC), the brand could be damaged, but it shouldn't be anything they can't address.



Xxain 7 hours ago

The Switch is not a new concept anymore. It will not flop, BUT I do think that the non core gamer will be slow to transition if they ever do.



curl-6 7 hours ago
Xxain said:

The Switch is not a new concept anymore. It will not flop, BUT I do think that the non core gamer will be slow to transition if they ever do.

PS2/PS4/PS5/Xbox 360/GBA weren't new concepts but they still sold really well and motivated people to upgrade.