It wont be a WiiU like disaster. Mainline Pokemon alone will get it to 20-25 million.

My current feeling is it'll perform like a more front-loaded Switch, comfortably outdoing its predecessor for the first 3 years but with this being offset by a lower peak and slightly less longevity.

Impossible for it to reach Wii U sales numbers for several reasons.

Unlike Wii U that co existed with the 3DS, Switch 2 will be a unified system and the only platform that gets the newest Nintendo games. It also means that mainline Pokemon, Zelda, 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash etc comes only to Switch 2, these are all popular franchises that can drive console sales.

I expect the Switch 2 to be priced to be fairly competitive and not too steep.

Nintendo now has a stronger position in the Japanese market than almost ever before, with tons of franchises that are particularly popular in Japan. So the Japanese market alone will be enough to see Switch 2 sell far more than Wii U WW total sales.

Third party support for the Switch 2 will probably be at a higher level year 1 than third party support was for the Switch back in 2017, and the better third party support a platform has, the more appealing the platform becomes for wider demographics of players.

I think all things considered, the Switch 2 has fairly good chance to reach 100 million sales, but hard to say how close it can get to Switch 1 sales in the end.

i’ll be bold and say >150mil. Much stronger start than NSW, might lose some ground midgen, but it’ll prolly hold similar leg strength. I expect NSW2 to do about as good — if not, a slight bit better (or possibly worse) — than NSW. (Not to mention: The competition is currently self-imploding…)

This is definitely possible since the Switch 3 or whatever probably won't be released till late 2033 and 8.5 years is a very long time to build up sales. Though for the competition part something to keep in mind is there's gonna be more competition in the handheld space than the Switch got which could matter some.

that’s fair. My comment on competition was more directed toward Sony’s current live service situation (likely meaning there could be a bit of a drought for a little while…not to mention their aggressive pricing behavior as of lately) and Microsoft’s gradual shift to 3rd party, though the handheld space has become a whole lot more competitive than since 2017. Steam Deck, ROG Ally, etc. certainly fill a void in the industry.

Why wouldn't it be able to do what the switch did?

@JRPGfan Because some people are going to be satisfied with their Switch and not see a reason to upgrade, especially those who bought it during the initial lockdowns. But then again, a decent chunk of that can be offset by the next generation of kids being old enough to have a game system and buying a NS2. Ultimately, I'd put NS2 at around 120m (compared to NS12 possibly ending around 160m).

Neither. It will be the Super Nintendo. Great sales, but not Switch 1, demi-God tier.

Why does that mean it's probably gonna sell less than the 3DS? The GBA was basically a GB but much better and it flew of the shelves until the DS came out cause the brand was really strong so a much better version of what someone already had was fine. There's no reason to assume it'll be much different with the Switch 2 cause the mass appeal will be a system you can play like a handheld or connect to a TV that has good third party support and has Nintendo games. The Switch brand is very strong and Switch owners are extremely hungry for a better Switch so it's gonna have a way better launch than the 3DS.

I think the PS5 is gonna be just fine but yeah Xbox seemingly going hard on supporting the Switch 2 will definitely help it. I guess the question is how many people with a Switch and Steam Deck or other handheld PC will not bother getting a Switch 2 vs Xbox players that'll pick the Switch 2 when changing platforms. I expect most of them to go to PC but some will pick Nintendo though the upcoming Xbox handheld could have a bit of an impact.