This.... if you have like almost a 100 switch 1 games... getting a Switch 2 makes alot of sense.
Also I'm sure, it will have lots of JRPGs and RPGs just like the first Switch did :)

I also voted big.
I don't see why a switch 2, cant match what the first switch does, as long as its priced reasonably.

And honestly, for all the flack it's gotten for using old 8nm samsung nodes for chips.
That sh*t is probably cheap as f***, compared to the chip's Xbox and Playstation make use of.
I think Nintendo get that price of entry matters.

Also I think Square will bend the knee.
If their big Final Fantasy games, can't be ported because of design to the Switch 2 (too demanding ei).
You can bet your arse, future Final Fantasy games, will be different by design, so they can.
Its selling too many consoles for people to ignore it.

I am sure the Switch 2 will be sucessfull. I think nobody seriously doubts this. But 20 million for year 1 is quite a tall order! I think 15- 16 million is more likley. They said the same about the Switch 1 that they wanted to shift 20 million year 1. It did very well but did not hit 20 million. But i am in for a surprise. What makes you so sure 20 million is in the cards?

Switch 2 will need at least two genuine phenomenon games (40mil+) for it to be remotely possible it outsells Switch. Probably 3 of those tbh. Or id say the best case software scenario for Switch 2 maybe being able to do it would be if GameFreak really gets their shit together, takes their time, and delivers a Gen 10 that blows everyone away and attracts a ton of the young gamers to Pokémon as well. An ongoing/live service style, but in a more Nintendo model, would likely be the best bet too for making it as big as possible. Could be like an 80m+ seller in that scenario tbh, which would mean Switch 2 would  have a definite shot of beating Switch. 

I see a lot of people talking about the Switch like it was just a novelty concept. Stop thinking about the Switch in the same way as the Wii.

The reason Switch was successful is not because it was the first to fully implement the hybrid concept, but because they actually did it well, providing a consistent output of high quality games which made the Switch as a product not just convenient but also incredibly well supported with variety of software.

Switch 2 being a successor to that doesn't lower it's potential, but instead creates a chance to build on everything Nintendo learned, since the foundation of this product isn't built on any short-lived gimmicks but rather an incredibly practical service that only Nintendo have perfected so far.

I appreciate the positivity, and optimism. There are many “haters” or critics that the Switch 2 can’t even sell above 130M.

Nintendo knows what they have and they will make sure families can afford it, just like the Switch I’m sure they want multiple Switch 2 units in the home. Rumors have it priced around $400 (I think $300 is the sweet spot, so there must be some added tech and “gimmicks” for them to increase the entry price).

If Square enters the Switch 2 it’s over for PlayStation in Japan. PlayStation would be selling like how Xbox does there.

Yeah I agree it is a tall order but that’s what the rumors say. We will have to wait for the Annual Report for confirmation. But I didn’t say year 1, the rumor has it to be only for 2025 so if the Switch 2 releases in June (as the rumors say) then they’d be selling 20M units in 6 months.

Switch in its year 1 sold 17.79M units. And in 2017 it sold 14.86M. (in these two sentence sold = shipped according to Nintendo)

I think Switch 2 can sell 20M in 2025 alone due to the high activity of Switch users. There are around 128M active users. I guarantee all them will purchase a Switch 2, the floor is 130M at the minimum. With those 128M active users you only need a 1/6th of them to be interested in the first ~6months (at the most) to have a backwards compatible and new performing console that will last them another 8+ years. Then there are the new generation of gamers and their parents who want their kids to have the brand new (something to keep the kids busy and happy). In USA alone there are around ~20M kids who most likely don’t have a gaming system for them. And of course not all of those kids are solo in the home, and not all the parents of the 20M will purchase the Switch 2 for Christmas or their birthday. So let’s take a low number of 4M kids will get a Switch 2 (some will get their own if they have multiple siblings). Now going back to the Switch user base that only requires 1/10th of the users to be interested in the first 6 months.

We only took kid data from the USA, if we include the rest of the world, it won’t be difficult.

And we haven’t even talked about the potential games of Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid 4, Pokémon all releasing in 2025. That is a solid rumored lineup for only 6 months. Mario Kart and Pokémon alone will push the sales to 20M by Dec 31 2025.

Do you really think Switch 2 will be Nintendo's main platform for 10 years? Even 8 is a stretch.

Switch 2 has taken 8 years and change to replace Switch not only because of Switch's success but supply chain issues from COVID-19 and other factors. Without the supply chain crisis, we probably would've gotten Switch 2 as early as March 2023 or as late as March 2024. 

Even if Switch 2 sells identically well to Switch, I'm skeptical of it taking more than 7 years to get a successor. 

Yes you made some good points here. The Switch has a massive install base of 150 million+ users in less than 8 years (i have a hard time believing the Switch will sell less than 4 million in Q3). The Switch should be 151- 155 million by the time Switch 2 releases. The DS (154,02 million) is cooked! I'd bet my dig on that! For the PS2 we have to wait. 159 million (like i said i don't believe in 160 million but thats a different topic) won't be so hard but we have to wait. What is dead sure is the fact that Switch 1 will be produced till April 2027 minimum.                Another thing: Why are you always mentioning this "kids" fairy tale when 43%+ of all Switch users are 25- 35 according to Nintendo themselfes?!

Nintendo is a family console meaning that a range from child to adult to elderly can own and use them to have fun. 43% are 25-35, that doesn’t discount children from using a Switch. Children are the future. Parents want kids to have fun. I think it’s rather simple.

The install base is actually over 330 million as of 2023.

Yes, it is. And what happened? It took the SNES three years and Sega shifting their focus and resources to the Saturn to overtake the Genesis in the US. For a time, Sonic was more popular than Mario, more recognizable to kids than the president, and their market share went from NES-level 90% to below 50%, all the while having a stellar lineup of amazing exclusives that are still unrivaled to this day.

There's such a thing as playing it too safe to the vest. And while I don't see the Switch 2 flopping by any stretch, I just think it's going to be too much of the same thing for it to do what the original Switch did. That thing was the first of its kind. It was fresh. It was new. It was interesting and different. This is none of that. It's just a Switch... only more powerful and refined. So I just don't see it matching its predecessor.

But hey, it's Nintendo. When it comes to them, it's like flipping a coin. Anything could happen. We'll see.

Still waiting for someone to make a surprisingly well-informed post about how Switch 2 could be Nintendo's PS2 moment, any takers lol?