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killer7 on 19 January 2025
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Shtinamin_ said:
JRPGfan said:

This.... if you have like almost a 100 switch 1 games... getting a Switch 2 makes alot of sense.
Also I'm sure, it will have lots of JRPGs and RPGs just like the first Switch did :)

I also voted big.
I don't see why a switch 2, cant match what the first switch does, as long as its priced reasonably.

And honestly, for all the flack it's gotten for using old 8nm samsung nodes for chips.
That sh*t is probably cheap as f***, compared to the chip's Xbox and Playstation make use of.
I think Nintendo get that price of entry matters.

Also I think Square will bend the knee.
If their big Final Fantasy games, can't be ported because of design to the Switch 2 (too demanding ei).
You can bet your arse, future Final Fantasy games, will be different by design, so they can.
Its selling too many consoles for people to ignore it.

I appreciate the positivity, and optimism. There are many “haters” or critics that the Switch 2 can’t even sell above 130M.

Nintendo knows what they have and they will make sure families can afford it, just like the Switch I’m sure they want multiple Switch 2 units in the home. Rumors have it priced around $400 (I think $300 is the sweet spot, so there must be some added tech and “gimmicks” for them to increase the entry price).

If Square enters the Switch 2 it’s over for PlayStation in Japan. PlayStation would be selling like how Xbox does there.

killer7 said:

I am sure the Switch 2 will be sucessfull. I think nobody seriously doubts this. But 20 million for year 1 is quite a tall order! I think 15- 16 million is more likley. They said the same about the Switch 1 that they wanted to shift 20 million year 1. It did very well but did not hit 20 million. But i am in for a surprise. What makes you so sure 20 million is in the cards?

Yeah I agree it is a tall order but that’s what the rumors say. We will have to wait for the Annual Report for confirmation. But I didn’t say year 1, the rumor has it to be only for 2025 so if the Switch 2 releases in June (as the rumors say) then they’d be selling 20M units in 6 months.

Switch in its year 1 sold 17.79M units. And in 2017 it sold 14.86M. (in these two sentence sold = shipped according to Nintendo)

I think Switch 2 can sell 20M in 2025 alone due to the high activity of Switch users. There are around 128M active users. I guarantee all them will purchase a Switch 2, the floor is 130M at the minimum. With those 128M active users you only need a 1/6th of them to be interested in the first ~6months (at the most) to have a backwards compatible and new performing console that will last them another 8+ years. Then there are the new generation of gamers and their parents who want their kids to have the brand new (something to keep the kids busy and happy). In USA alone there are around ~20M kids who most likely don’t have a gaming system for them. And of course not all of those kids are solo in the home, and not all the parents of the 20M will purchase the Switch 2 for Christmas or their birthday. So let’s take a low number of 4M kids will get a Switch 2 (some will get their own if they have multiple siblings). Now going back to the Switch user base that only requires 1/10th of the users to be interested in the first 6 months.

We only took kid data from the USA, if we include the rest of the world, it won’t be difficult.

And we haven’t even talked about the potential games of Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Star Fox, Metroid 4, Pokémon all releasing in 2025. That is a solid rumored lineup for only 6 months. Mario Kart and Pokémon alone will push the sales to 20M by Dec 31 2025.

Yes you made some good points here. The Switch has a massive install base of 150 million+ users in less than 8 years (i have a hard time believing the Switch will sell less than 4 million in Q3). The Switch should be 151- 155 million by the time Switch 2 releases. The DS (154,02 million) is cooked! I'd bet my dig on that! For the PS2 we have to wait. 159 million (like i said i don't believe in 160 million but thats a different topic) won't be so hard but we have to wait. What is dead sure is the fact that Switch 1 will be produced till April 2027 minimum.                Another thing: Why are you always mentioning this "kids" fairy tale when 43%+ of all Switch users are 25- 35 according to Nintendo themselfes?!