Welcome! With the release of teaser for the Switch 2, and with there being lots of plausible rumors. I think it’ll be good to discuss and keep tabs on Switch 2 production, total number of shipped and sold.

A very early prediction and it will change as time goes on for I believe in living information, thus this is a living prediction.

Switch 2 will produce, ship and sell +170M consoles.

No, the context of todays economics and the fact the Switch Hybrid nature isn't a novel thing anymore means, there's a part of the "curious" audience that will prolly not translate to customers for the next generation.

But I believe they've got another 100M+ base to sustain on the new platform quite easily nonetheless due to their software which will be the usual main drivers

I do agree that the economics as of right now seem dim. But I think things will start to get better soon.

And just a rumor but intriguing, Bloomberg says that Nintendo expects to sell 20M Switch 2 units in 2025. So considering that it seems that Bloomberg (and technically Nintendo) expect the Switch 2 to sell quickly.

There are rumors regarding what the new “joycons” may do for the Switch 2 which will be a huge leap to combine PC, Handheld and Home into one unit.

We don't know what the price will be, we don't know if it will have the same level of legendary games that drove Switch's success. Also the hybrid Switch concept is no longer the shiny new thing that got people so excited when Switch launched so that's gonna hurt sales in comparison to the Switch. Though on the upside there is the backwards compatibility which will help sales.

And of course Nintendo was not remotely aggressive in pushing the Switch (ie system discounts, Nintendo Selects dropping games to $30) so there are plenty of sales tactics Nintendo COULD do next gen if they want to sell more, though since they didn't bother doing that with the Switch it's pretty safe to assume they won't take advantage of those things with Switch 2 either.

I'd say 120m would be a huge success for Switch 2, given that it's no longer the exciting new innovation that Switch was.

100m will still be a solid success.

Anything close to what Switch ends up selling will be an extraordinary success for Nintendo as that would mean two gens of dominance, showing that they can possible maintain an extreme level of success longer term.

Rumors say the Switch 2 will go for $400 but I’m gonna take that with a grain of salt.
We do know that a new Mario Kart will release, thus we can safely assume Switch 2 will reach ~40M based on Mario Kart alone. And there are rumors of Star Fox (though that’s not a system seller given how niche it is).

And I do agree that Nintendo can take advantage of many tactics.

Though I don’t think 100M will be what Nintendo executives would call a success regarding that Switch is nearing 150M, I think 130M would be closer to “success”. And the hybrid gimmick will still be a huge factor. Kinda like how Apple keeps selling iPhone, same stuff but just new.

It will do fine. Nintendo are playing it safe, which is likely out of a necessity as they don't have more than 1 platform to "weather the storm" of a failed console. I.E. 3DS and WiiU.

It's just a Nintendo Switch. But better. - Don't see it outselling the original Switch because of that, but that's also not a bad thing.
All my games will translate over.

It will be a day 1 purchase for me either way. - Still on the fence if I sell my OLED console or hang onto it, will see how games look and play on the new device before I make that decision I guess.

I'll say between 120-140 million.

I do think that the pandemic played a role in Switch 1's huge success and added a considerable amount of sales and life to the system by just being in the right place at the right time. Hitting its peak right at the exact same period where everyone was stuck at home and needed something to do and it just so happened that Animal Crossing came out at that time: It was a perfect storm for that game and the Switch 1.

If there was no pandemic and it was always regular circumstances, I think Switch would have been in the 120-140 million range that I say Switch 2 will end up in. Just because I think it will have a more natural life cycle and I also think Switch benefitted from basically absorbing almost the Wii U's entire library (Give me Wind Waker and Twilight Princess!)

But now that Switch 2 is backwards compatible with pretty much all Switch 1 games, that means it will have to rely more on original software, and I think with this being the first real generational leap Nintendo has made since the jump from Wii to Wii U, they are going to struggle a little bit, and that Switch 2's first party release lineup will suffer because of it. (I say first party release lineup, because I fully expect third party support to be all-in right from the get-go and that will go a long way towards mitigating some gaps here and there.)

But as great as I'm sure a lot of the 3rd party offerings will be, the main draw of a Nintendo system is the Nintendo games, which I anticipate the quantity will be lower than what was on Switch 1, and the lifetime sales will reflect that. Hence, why I saw 120-140 million. Still absolutely fantastic, just not 'Switch 1' fantastic.

My advice is to pass it down to a son/daughter (if you have any), niece/nephew, or younger cousin/family member that wants to get into gaming and need a great place to start.

That's what I did with my 3DS. (Feliz Navidad Gabi, Ceci, y Esteban!)

Who the fuck knows. Switch was deemed a flop like Wii U. Then thought it would top 50-70 million then people thought PS4 numbers and now people are watching hoping it crosses PS2. Maybe not as mentioned it's no longer blue ocean but red ocean but this is a different environment than even 8 years ago let along when Wii to Wii U happened. Not just for Nintendo but the entire industry. We don't know what features Switch 2 has. The price. 3rd party support and outside of a MK game. What 1st party is lined up.

Way too early to tell as of now but it's giving me PS4 number vibes.