Until there is a Switch 2 Lite that is actually affordable for the kids part of the market, I don't see Switch 1 Lite in particular going anywhere.

There's nothing else a parent can buy other than that crappy NeX thing or get them into smartphone/tablet gaming, which I doubt Nintendo wants, they want to still get kids from a young age as they've always done.

2035. Calling it now.

I think people underestimate when Nintendo truly discontinues a system even well after the successor is released. The DS came out in 2004 and the GBA didn't get discontinued til 2009, despite the DS at that point barely being more expensive and being backwards compatible, just like the Switch 2's case. A long 5 years after the successor for it to finally be discontinued. The DS was discontinued in 2014, a little more than 3 years after the 3DS.

I have a feeling Nintendo will keep the Switch 1 in production til 2028. I believe the Switch 2 will eventually get a price hike so Nintendo will want to still provide a cheaper option, especially for something like the Switch Lite for those who still want a cheaper handheld experience.

However, I dont think it'll be enough to reach 160 Million tho. Im thinking around 158 Million.

TBF GBA is certainly an outlier, having only been given 3 years before the DS arrived. It really foes just depend on how well the system is selling and/or whether Nintendo has an interest to move on (e.g. Wii U was discontinued more than a month prior to NS1’s launch; 3DS was still selling quite well in 2017/2018 yet was discontinued shortly later).