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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will the Switch 2 be revealed this month?

super_etecoon said:

A question for those claiming that revealing the Switch 2 this year won’t affect Switch sales: what upside is there for Nintendo to announce before the end of the year?

To stifle PS5/Series sales? Not likely.

To give Nintendo fans a treat? Doesn’t seem like good motivation for a company.

I just can’t see what the purpose of announcing now would be unless you absolutely think Nintendo is launching on March 3rd to replicate the Switch 1 timeline.

I don't think there's any point doing it this year now since we're already into mid November but I gave some reasons for why it could benefit Nintendo in the first half of the thread.



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Norion said:
super_etecoon said:

A question for those claiming that revealing the Switch 2 this year won’t affect Switch sales: what upside is there for Nintendo to announce before the end of the year?

To stifle PS5/Series sales? Not likely.

To give Nintendo fans a treat? Doesn’t seem like good motivation for a company.

I just can’t see what the purpose of announcing now would be unless you absolutely think Nintendo is launching on March 3rd to replicate the Switch 1 timeline.

I don't think there's any point doing it this year now since we're already into mid November but I gave some reasons for why it could benefit Nintendo in the first half of the thread.

I don't think so either, but Furukawa is the one that keeps answering that a unveil this year wouldn't impact Switch 1, so that's for whatever reason something he keeps on repeating. I don't get why they just don't say it will be next year before the end of the fiscal year. 

On the manufacturing side though, it does look like something is starting. 



Soundwave said:
Norion said:

I don't think there's any point doing it this year now since we're already into mid November but I gave some reasons for why it could benefit Nintendo in the first half of the thread.

I don't think so either, but Furukawa is the one that keeps answering that a unveil this year wouldn't impact Switch 1, so that's for whatever reason something he keeps on repeating. I don't get why they just don't say it will be next year before the end of the fiscal year. 

On the manufacturing side though, it does look like something is starting. 

If something is indeed starting manufacturing wise then that's promising since that would mean it shouldn't be any later than January and I'll get genuinely annoyed if it takes longer than that.



Norion said:
Soundwave said:

I don't think so either, but Furukawa is the one that keeps answering that a unveil this year wouldn't impact Switch 1, so that's for whatever reason something he keeps on repeating. I don't get why they just don't say it will be next year before the end of the fiscal year. 

On the manufacturing side though, it does look like something is starting. 

If something is indeed starting manufacturing wise then that's promising since that would mean it shouldn't be any later than January and I'll get genuinely annoyed if it takes longer than that.

It's hard to know what their internal marketing time line might be, as much as people say Switch was XYZ weeks, the fact is Nintendo did very little marketing for it prior to January 2017 and that was a completely new hardware concept for them too which in theory should have required more time to explain. 

Switch 2 is probably just ... well a beefed up Switch, it's not even going to require much explanation as such they could probably have a shorter marketing window and not be affected so long as the product is attractive. 

But on the manufacturing side, they definitely seem to be massing for production to begin in some capacity soon. Actual Switch 2 components are being sent out to their production factories (well at least one of them in Vietnam, we don't get data from the Chinese side manufacturers) in sizable quantities starting last August, so who knows what's happening now. The shipping/customs reports trail by 1+ month I believe. 



Soundwave said:

The leaks (I don't even know if "leak" is the correct word since it's basically just hard data) are coming from the Vietnam based factory Nintendo brought on board to help with Switch 1 production around 2020 I believe. HVBG. 

HVBG whilst a Nintendo partner also cater to other customers.

Soundwave said:

Because components have to ship there, it's possible to get shipment/customs data, that's how people have gotten the Switch 2's internal memory type, flash storage, etc. a few months ago. 

Correct. Again, I am not disputing any of this.

But you cannot take NAND/Ram shipments and correspond those to capacities... Because you need many of those chips in a device.
And this is where the issue lays... People are taking things further than the evidence implies.

People are taking rumors and running with it.

Have you not learned anything over the decades where leading up to a launch we had over 9,000 different "leaks" some even from "credible" sources which turned out to be blatantly false? There are reasons for that... And partly that is because people interpret things incorrectly.

Soundwave said:

We're seeing a huge surge of Switch 2 components to a factory that produces/assembles Switch units beginning in August 2024. Tegra T239 SoCs went from 3000-4000/month to a nearly 50,000 unit order in August, LCD screens for the Switch 2 went from a 1100 unit order in June 2024 to 68,000 in August. And there's been more information since, lets just say this trend line is continuing. 

It's more that Nintendo can't control public records in this case. 

You don't know if those components are legitimately being used for the Switch 2.0.

Conversely, shipments of the T239 SoC's doesn't tell us clockspeeds, number of CPU cores, GPU cores, caches or other technical capabilities.
It just tells us, that manufacturing has begun, which is as obvious as claiming that water is wet.

We can however make very logical deductions on what is currently available in the technology space... Hence why myself and other PC-tech heads argued that the Series X/Playstation 5 would have 16GB of Ram and not 64GB or more due to the price of those commodity components.



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Pemalite said:
Soundwave said:

The leaks (I don't even know if "leak" is the correct word since it's basically just hard data) are coming from the Vietnam based factory Nintendo brought on board to help with Switch 1 production around 2020 I believe. HVBG. 

HVBG whilst a Nintendo partner also cater to other customers.

Soundwave said:

Because components have to ship there, it's possible to get shipment/customs data, that's how people have gotten the Switch 2's internal memory type, flash storage, etc. a few months ago. 

Correct. Again, I am not disputing any of this.

But you cannot take NAND/Ram shipments and correspond those to capacities... Because you need many of those chips in a device.
And this is where the issue lays... People are taking things further than the evidence implies.

People are taking rumors and running with it.

Have you not learned anything over the decades where leading up to a launch we had over 9,000 different "leaks" some even from "credible" sources which turned out to be blatantly false? There are reasons for that... And partly that is because people interpret things incorrectly.

Soundwave said:

We're seeing a huge surge of Switch 2 components to a factory that produces/assembles Switch units beginning in August 2024. Tegra T239 SoCs went from 3000-4000/month to a nearly 50,000 unit order in August, LCD screens for the Switch 2 went from a 1100 unit order in June 2024 to 68,000 in August. And there's been more information since, lets just say this trend line is continuing. 

It's more that Nintendo can't control public records in this case. 

You don't know if those components are legitimately being used for the Switch 2.0.

Conversely, shipments of the T239 SoC's doesn't tell us clockspeeds, number of CPU cores, GPU cores, caches or other technical capabilities.
It just tells us, that manufacturing has begun, which is as obvious as claiming that water is wet.

We can however make very logical deductions on what is currently available in the technology space... Hence why myself and other PC-tech heads argued that the Series X/Playstation 5 would have 16GB of Ram and not 64GB or more due to the price of those commodity components.

The bolded part is exactly right, IMHO.  The switch was significantly underclocked.  We really don't know what the S2 will be based on broad generic leaks, assuming the leaks are even true.  



The Tegra T239 is the processor the Switch 2 and all the Switch 2 components have their own product code prefix distinct from the Switch 1 at the production level. You think a manufacturing facility that has millions of different components doesn't meticulously label what each component is and for what product it's for? lol. They track every component right down to literally every screw because we can even see a huge surge in the screws and tape for Switch 2, lol. The clock speed is irrelevant to this discussion.

We also see Nintendo's Vietnam facility is taking delivery of tens of thousands (well even more than that) of Switch 2 LCD displays and other major Switch 2 components you would need. In June 2024 they were only receiving about 1100 of the screen, it has increased by 60x+ for August and has gone up even further afterwards.

I dunno, but that looks to me like a ramp up for production.

People also need to understand the difference between "rumor", as in a story ran on a gaming site or forum and "leak". These are two different things, a rumor anyone can make up, leaks like the Nvidia hack and shipping/customs manifests are things that not just made up, they are things perhaps that are not supposed to be shared with the public that end up leaking out. Rumors and "leaks" are not necessarily the same thing.

Mass production has likely not begun as of August 2024 because we don't see shipments out from HVBG, but it looks like mass production is about to begin. Which is significant, if they are beginning mass production or even trial production this year, then the release date is probably not as far off as some people have been speculating. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 11 November 2024

I don't buy the idea that Switch 2 being announced will have much impact on late adopters of the original Nintendo Switch. Everyone who does even the most basic amount of research already knows the Switch 2 is coming out next year. Announcing it now or in January isn't going to make any difference. It's the release of the next console that will have some impact... that, or if Nintendo suddenly stops supporting Switch like they did with the SNES and Wii.

Aside from the rare third party... like Rare... Nintendo's releases are the reason why Nintendo consoles sell. The third party software is mainly additional purchases.



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Soundwave said:

The Tegra T239 is the processor the Switch 2 and all the Switch 2 components have their own product code prefix distinct from the Switch 1 at the production level. You think a manufacturing facility that has millions of different components doesn't meticulously label what each component is and for what product it's for? lol. They track every component right down to literally every screw because we can even see a huge surge in the screws and tape for Switch 2, lol. The clock speed is irrelevant to this discussion.

We also see Nintendo's Vietnam facility is taking delivery of tens of thousands (well even more than that) of Switch 2 LCD displays and other major Switch 2 components you would need. In June 2024 they were only receiving about 1100 of the screen, it has increased by 60x+ for August and has gone up even further afterwards.

I dunno, but that looks to me like a ramp up for production.

People also need to understand the difference between "rumor", as in a story ran on a gaming site or forum and "leak". These are two different things, a rumor anyone can make up, leaks like the Nvidia hack and shipping/customs manifests are things that not just made up, they are things perhaps that are not supposed to be shared with the public that end up leaking out. Rumors and "leaks" are not necessarily the same thing.

Mass production has likely not begun as of August 2024 because we don't see shipments out from HVBG, but it looks like mass production is about to begin. Which is significant, if they are beginning mass production or even trial production this year, then the release date is probably not as far off as some people have been speculating. 

Just like all those switch pro leaks...  oh wait, nevermind.