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Forums - Sales Discussion - Official Big 3 Quarterly/Annual Results for shipments to date & projections

BKK2 said:
^ Quite possible.

They said inventory value was down 29.7% due to decreased PS3 hardware inventory, but the last production shipment they gave was through March 07, so we don't have the difference between production shipments and retail shipments for the Apr-Jun quarter last year.

PS3 hardware has had a 33% reduction in value since then, so a 29.7% is inline with decreased value of the PS3 inventory, but not decreased units. This makes sense as they should have been stockpiling 80Gb in the last quarter. David Reeves said a couple of weeks ago that they are already on their way to Europe.

Jul 19, 2008

GameSpot UK: Why have you decided to move up to the 80GB PlayStation 3 model?

David Reeves: Hard drives worldwide are a commodity just like memory sticks. I used to pay a fortune for memory sticks, even for a 64MB. Now I pay the same for a 2GB. Our strategy was very much based on the fact that we knew that the cost of a hard drive would come down. 80GB is probably cheaper now to buy than a 40GB.

Secondly, we know that people want more storage--that's a fact. Thirdly, we know that having higher capacity helps. If the Japanese say to us, "We'll give you the 80GB model at the same price as the 40GB model," are you going to say no? No, you're not, and we said "OK," and that's what we're going to do. They're already produced and they're on the boat to Australia, Europe, and to the UK. It was a no-brainer, and we thought that doubling the capacity with the same specs and the same price was probably a good way to go.


Link

Through March 31 2007 there was a 1.89m difference between produced and shipped. It was probably a similar ammount the following quarter, and this quarter seems to be inline with that quarter. 14.41m + 1.89m = 16.3m, coincidentally exactly 4m behind 360.

So, this does seem most likely the way he calculated it, but it's a pretty dubious method.



What in the world? How could one even come up with that silly explanation of what Tretton said. The fact of the matter is they shipped 14.41 million at the end of June. Are you trying to imply they have shipped another 1.89 million since the end of June or those produced consoles are just sitting there and should be counted as shipments(as Tretton said)? As ioi has already stated there is probably not even ~600k in channel right now. I mean how in the world could one justify what Tretton said in any fashion or form. By going by produced numbers as you say then one would certainly have to take into account all the newly produced 60GB 360s coming from China and hitting stores this week as well.

It's like saying we will take into account are produced numbers right now, but not yours.

That methodology is just silly to say the very least. Tretton knew what he was saying, and of course he could have been confused, but if he wasn't there is no way in the world to justify what he said. I said back then when he said it he was totally wrong and he is wrong today still.  6 million shipped difference is a whole lot more than 4.

 

As a side note if you look at the PS3 and 360 shipments from the time the PS3 hit the market they are almost the exact same. So that 1 year head start is still clearly there today.

Since the launch of the PS3, WW shipments:

PS3 14.41 Million
360 14.40 Million

 



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^ Firstly, it wasn't my explanation, someone else suggested it, so I did the math and it seems to fit. Why are you saying the explanation is silly? It's the method used by Tretton that's silly.

I'm certainly not trying to justify what he said, I said it was misleading and dubious.



TheSource said:

BKK2 you had PSP at 37.84m earlier in this thread so I just added the shipment figure for this quarter to it.

I think 37m shipped to retail makes more sense through June though

I'm basing it off the new year figure given by David Reeves, although the graph FishyJoe linked to seems to agree with it aswell. I don't really pay much attention to handheld sales, so if anyone has seen anything that contradicts or confirms the PSP figure please post.

 



Nintendo raised its projections for Wii & DS.

Through March 08', the totals were 24.45m and 70.6m.

From April 08' to March 09', Nintendo now expects to ship 26.5m Wiis, and 30.5m DSs, up from 25m Wiis and 28m DSs.

 

Through June 08' DS was at 77.54m, Wii was at 29.62m.

 

If Nintendo follows its projections, we'll see something like:

DS: ~84.5m shipped through Sept 30, 2008

Wii: ~ 35m shipped through Sept 30, 2008

 

Through December 31, something like:

DS ~ 95m shipped through Dec 31, 2008

Wii ~ 46m through Dec 31, 2008

 

Through Mar 31 2009

DS ~ 101m shipped (in line with Nintendo's projections)

Wii ~ 51m shipped (in line with Nintendo's projections)



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

^^ Did you mean Through June 08' DS was at 77.54m, Wii was at 29.62m ?



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Yup I did.

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

Seems like Wii after all have a very real chance of reaching 50% market share by 31st December 2008 if it sells 46million.

cuz
X360 will be around 24- 25 mil &
PS3 will be around 20 - 21 mil.. which will be very optimisitically equal to 46 mil of Wii..
Impressive



We don't really get shipment breakdown by region from Sony anymore, but at Leipzig David Reeves said they had shipped 14 million PS3s worldwide with 6 million of them being shipped in PAL region through last quarter. Both numbers are rounded off to 1 million (we already know worldwide it was 14.41m), so PAL shipments could have been anywhere from 5.5m - 6.5m.



46 million by 31 december? Wow... it seems Nintendo really upped the production of Wii's. Just last week I predicted Wii to sell 42 million, but I didn't know Nintendo really upped production yet.



TheSource said:
So this is just hours away then...

 

 I assume that Sony is going to announce the shipments w/ its earnings as it has previously, and this isn't a matter of hours away, in fact the announcement is coming at the end of Oct.

 

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/info/calendar/index.html