As long as the consoles have some add-on or built-in way to play physical games it won't end until said console no longer gets games. PS6 and Xbox 5 have a good chance of a disc drive add-on to play older games and potentially support a handful of native games. Physical games will mostly die out in the 2030s, though.
For movies? Mainstream physical media (DVD, Blu-ray, UHD Blu-ray) will probably die out in wide releases in the 2030s, maybe the early 2040s. There will be so many leftover DVDs in particular for people to use that we'll still see DVD releases (even limited ones) for decades. There are still blank VHS tapes out there that people use to make very limited quantities of small films.

If physical is gone completely, the only way I'd still game is through something like Gamepass, be it Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft. I just can't fork over more than a few bucks on a digital title. I just can't. Renting is about all I could get behind.

Agreed. Game Pass and other services are worth it as long as you play enough of the games, and you already know going in you have limited access to the license. 

When I buy a digital game, I hope I will have the license forever, but I don't know. With a subscription, I know I'm on borrowed time if I unsubscribe, change tiers, or it leaves the service. 

Something that I'd really like to see happen are digital game rentals for new releases, recent games, and legacy titles. Sometimes you want to try a game longer than a demo or would gladly rent it for a few days to a week for cheaper than the asking price. VOD added rental options long ago, which makes the loss of brick-and-mortar video rentals less of a blow. I think losing game rentals with those stores shutting down is worse. Admittedly, GameFly still exists even when Netflix killed their disc rentals. 

VHS copies even if sealed will be blank by 2030s and 2040s. VHS does have a much shorter shelf life than a disc.

Whenever the console makers get sick of money.