RFK was pulling about equal from Trump and Biden but now it seems like some of RFK support has gone to Kamala. That would assume the remaining support he has would go to Trump. It is obvious RFK dropping out helps Trump but the question is how much. 

I think if Trump actually promises RFK a cabinet seat then I think a good chunk of RFK supporters go to Trump. If he just drops out and endorses, I think many of the RFK supporters just stay home. Anecdotal but the ones that I know do no like Trump and it would take a bit of convincing to vote for him.

Right now he is pulling more from Trump than Harris but they'll still be some that go to Harris, they'll be some that will instead go to the other grifter Chase Oliver, they'll be some that hate both Trump and Harris and that's exactly why they're going with RFK Jr and so they'll sit out the election, either way, like every election before it, RFK JRs numbers would have decreased more and more until the date of the election.

I've seen a number of pollsters say it won't have any major impact so Idk. It's hard to say right now, but one bad thing is this election will be disgustingly close and therefore even a small impact could win the election for someone, as it stands right now, I wouldn't expect Trump to start leading in most polls again based only on RFK JR endorsing him. 

I did see something funny though, apparently RFK Jr's wife hates Trump and also, RFK Jr said this...

So maybe the grifting little prick has a divorce coming his way, hopefully.

Trump ain't beating the weird allegations though when he brings onboard Captain Brainworm's into his cabinet, the antivaxxer who carried a dead bear cub around with him to drop it into Central Park as a "prank" and is hated by most his extended family, Lmao. I'm glad Harris ignored his desperate attempts to get a cabinet position from her, him and Trump though are a perfect match, two fucking weirdos.

The Project 2025 architect wants Trump to bring Bobby Junior on board as HHS Secretary, which would put him in charge of the CDC and FDA.

That's not just letting the fox guard the henhouse. That's letting the fox have free run of the henhouse.

He would have a really tough time getting confirmed but I guess it's possible depending if the Senate flips. 

Also, in that last stretch, it makes me wonder how people take Fox News seriously. I thought the Simpsons was parodying it with Birch Barlow, but it's an accurate portrayal.

Just to follow up on the "RFK Dropping Out" conversation, Silver Bullet (by Nate Silver, formerly of 538) has updated his models. In his national model, Harris gained 0.8pts and Trump gained 1.1pts, for an overall change of 0.3pts in favor of Trump. That is a very small change. Harris recently had some great polling leading to her biggest single day improvement and this doesn't even reset things to before that polling.

The model in swing states shows roughly the same polling change, so overall, this does hurt Harris, but she currently has a lot of paths to victory and this doesn't change that. For example, Harris recently took the polling lead in North Carolina (though it is still well within the margin of error). This means that, say, North Carolina + Nevada could make up for losing PA.

Polls in general will be in an interesting spot for a bit as they pivot to removing RFK from their 5-way matchups (now 4-way I guess). It'll also be interesting to see if another candidate like Stein can cement themselves as the third place finisher.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Here are the new aggregates, Harris down by about 0.5%, but more a speed bump than a change. RFK is so weird and unlikable that he may harm Trump more in the long run. Democratic Party subtracts an old man, the Republicans add one with brain worms.

My hope (not prediction) is that Trump campaigns with him and then watch him get bad press over it. Unlike JD Vance, Trump would just drop him or denounce his endorsement.

Ultimately RFK is so crazy that not even the guy who wants to be a dictator wants to be associated with him.