Maybe open myself up for mocking if Atlas ends up being right but I'm convinced at this stage that Atlas is just flooding the zone with garbage polls and they got lucky in 2020 because since then they've been trash in multiple elections across multiple countries including their very own Brazil. Their crosstabs are horrifically suspicious and they spit out polls like a fucking machine gun, Lmao. And then fucking Nate Silver gives them an A rating because they got lucky in one election, I'm sorry but one election is too early to put someone that high. Atlas isn't breaking this hopium train!

If even my home state has given up on Trump, he is doomed. So far in my family, it is definitely Trump dominated, but some usual republican voters flipped. Not because of abortion but because he is old and crazy.

Keep thinking that.

The more stressed he is the more tanning spray he uses. Tomorrow he'll probably be looking like an Oompa-Loompa.

It's a little funny that Polymarket's swing state odds favour Harris in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which would be the only 3 states she needs to win the entire thing even if Trump won all the rest, but Trump is still ahead in the overall odds by a decent bit. It's all nonsense of course but it was fun to notice, that and watching Trump's lead significantly reduce so quickly after the drama about them. In the last 4 hours Trump is down 5% in overall betting markets (51% - 48%), Harris leads on PredictIt, Kalshi. Trump's lead has dropped 5% on Polymarket in 6 hours and Harris leads there in the swing states she needs. Once again, I put little stock in these, but worth noting due to the past panic about them.

Trump winning women in AZ by over 7 percent. Kari Lake winning. Women practically even in GA. Asians for some reason voting mostly for Trump but 17% for Jill Stein. Trump wins 40% of the black vote. Trump wins 47% of women in PA. Trump wins 64% of the black vote in Wisconsin.

If they wind up being accurate it will be by dumb luck. 

Oh, it's starting to get a little nervous. If you believe one side we're getting world war 3. If you believe the other we're getting an America that's an authoritarian socialist state.... and world war 3. Nothing will change, the US currently doesn't have a president and it's running the same as it ever has, slowly into the ground.