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Forums - Politics Discussion - 2024 US Presidential Election

Ryuu96 2 days ago

+50% for Trump among Black voters on polls /s.



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Ryuu96 2 days ago

I've seen enough, I'm calling Michigan for Harris /s.



JWeinCom 2 days ago
Ryuu96 said:

I've seen enough, I'm calling Michigan for Harris /s.

Rasmussen did this in 2020. Towards the end their polls take a sharp turn towards Dems so they get to craft the narrative all cycle but then still be somewhat accurate at the end.

The polls are kind of like quantum mechanics. Once we began observing them, it changed the results.



SvennoJ 2 days ago

/facepalm

Why many Arab voters in Michigan are flocking to Trump ahead of US election

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/2/why-many-arab-voters-in-michigan-are-flocking-to-trump-ahead-of-us-election

Dearborn, Michigan – Samraa Luqman wants Arab Americans to be blamed if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris loses to her Republican rival Donald Trump in the United States election.

For too long, Democrats have taken the Arab vote for granted, and it is time for them to pay the price for the United States-backed Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, Luqman said.

“I will show up the next day if Harris loses, I will say: It’s because of this community, it is because of Gaza and because of the genocide, that you lost,” Luqman told Al Jazeera in her office in the Detroit suburb of Dearborn. “Take the credit for your power. I’m all for it.”

The Yemeni American activist is part of a growing electoral bloc that would have been unthinkable a few years ago: Arab Americans for Trump.



Yes the Democrats, Biden and Harris need to charged with aiding and abetting genocide. But that's not going to happen by voting a fascist Islamophobic bigot into power.



Mnementh 2 days ago
JWeinCom said:

The polls are kind of like quantum mechanics. Once we began observing them, it changed the results.

This is a well know phenomenom called Goodhearts law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law



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TallSilhouette 2 days ago

Only a few days, now. I think I'll put my final projection at:

40% chance of a narrow Harris victory
30% chance of a narrow Trump victory
20% chance of a decisive Harris victory
10% chance of a successful Trump coup (via corrupt courts, faithless electors, etc)

My gut says Harris, but my head is tempered by the (sometimes questionable) data we've received this year. Hoping the polls have been way too conservative and we have a relative Harris blowout that retakes the House and maybe even holds onto the Senate. The alternative would be life changing. Fingers crossed.

Last edited by TallSilhouette - 2 days ago

Ryuu96 2 days ago



Ryuu96 2 days ago

Endorsements - Keegan Michael Key, Victoria Monet, Glo, Kerry Washington, Mark Becker, Spike Lee, Khalid, Jon Bon Jovi, Harrison Ford

Spoiler!

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 2 days ago

Ryuu96 2 days ago



Ryuu96 2 days ago