KManX89 said:
Oh, and as a shock to nobody (of sound mind), the swing state early voting doesn’t look good for Trump at all so far: It’s almost like feeding your base with dangerous delusions about Covid and getting them killed in the process was a bad idea (he literally called it a hoax and scoffed at wearing masks and social distancing and they naturally followed suit, hence all the superspreader rallies in 2020). As was nominating (and allowing to once again be nominated) a x34 convicted felon and adjudicated rapist who literally tried to stage a coup. |
I have watched a lot of videos about early voting, some of which are saying it's good for Harris, and others saying it is favoring Trump. I am convinced that analyzing the early voting is about as useful as a horoscope.
The problem is that for early voting to provide useful data, we would need to know what the election day numbers will look like. So, the electorate being mostly women is a good sign........ unless men vote a lot more on election day.
Meanwhile republicans are claiming early voting is favoring them because the margin of democrats vs republicans voting is closer than it was in early voting in 2020. But, that is predicting the election day vote will be close to what it was in 2020, and there is no way to guarantee that's the case. It could be, or it could be that more democrats will vote on election day.
I'm not sure anyone can really use the early vote data to make a good prediction. I know that I can't at least.