Betting firms in the US have given Trump a 70% chance of winning the election with him taking WI, GA, PA and NC. Almost like liberals don't connect with the average person, but that can't be true, because when I mentioned it a hundred pages ago I was told I was wrong. :)

I swear a lot of the time it comes across like you're just looking for a fight despite being a Trump hater, Lol. Since when were betting odds the absolute definitive thing? Do you trust those betting odds more than the pollsters? None of the poll aggregators are anywhere near 70% to Trump. Betting can and does tend to change in an instant and can be gamed as well.

According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets—bookmakers now give Trump a 53.2% chance of winning in November, compared to Harris’ 45.8%. The biggest boost for Trump’s odds has come from bookmakers on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, who now predict Trump has a 55.8% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 43.5%.

In his blog post about the betting markets’ swing in favor of Trump, polling analyst Nate Silver wrote: “Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they’re in the doldrums...Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket...People assume there must be something there, that somebody knows something, but usually it’s just a Rich Guy With Opinions.”

Forbes

RealClearPolitics Betting Average - 54.0 Trump / 44.7 Harris

Betting Odds - 2024 U.S. President

Where are you getting 70% chance of winning from?

Predictit (another betting firm) recently had Trump and Harris at both a 52% chance of winning, Lmao. Cause often the betting market is just made up nonsense that can be easily manipulated by rich idiots or a simple tweet from Musk. Betting firms don't connect with the average person, they take money from the average person with their made up shit.

Betting firms are not in the business of losing money.  And they have senate 51 to 49 in favor of GOP.  I can look for the article, I read it this morning.  

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And I do hate Trump and worry liberals are going to blow it yet again, because they do not connect with the average person (like I said a hundred pages ago).

Feels like the honeymoon boost is dying hard.  

Yeah, but I don't think Harris campaign is being complacent, I don't think many here are being complacent, I've repeatedly said that the election will be a toss-up and very close, the pollsters averages put Harris as the slight favourite (and I trust them way more than betting firms) but it's within tossup territory so I'm still nervous but the thing is as well, pollsters and especially betting firms, can be wrong (in both directions) and betting firms especially can wildly change day to day.

Harris has been, Imo, connecting with the average person on issues that they care about, such as inflation, abortion/women's rights, democracy, the border, etc. You suggested earlier in the year that Biden bang on about the stock market...That's definitely not what the average person cares about, Lol. Harris has however, been gaining on Trump in voter issues based on recent polling, such as the economy, when polled about who you trust more with what issue.

A recent NBC News poll found that Trump led Harris by 9 points on handling the economy — down from the 22-point lead he held over Biden earlier this year. A Cook Political Report swing state survey in late September found Harris pulling even with Trump on “getting inflation under control,” although Trump still led by 5 points on whom voters would rather see “deal with the economy.” A New York Times/Siena College national poll released Tuesday found that the economy is the No. 1 issue influencing likely voters, with abortion a distant second and immigration just behind that.

She's not going to erode this by talking about the stock market, she's in the administration of an incumbent during inflation and voters have short term memories, Trump inherited Obama's economy and trashed it all but got to blame it on COVID. Harris by all accounts is doing well in decreasing that gap, far better than Biden ever did, who banged on about the stock market to an annoying degree.

I think my point is, given the competition and craziness, it shouldn't be a tossup.  Liberals need to ask themselves why it is a tossup against easy targets...  there is something off.  If you can't beat "eating cats and dogs" and "weather control" there is a big problem with the platform.

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and 56% of Americans own stock, 30+% have their retirement in the stock market....  the conclusion isn't "nobody cares about the stock market."

The other scenario is that there is simply a problem with Americans, or rather people.

You're underestimating how well hate sells to a lot of people and how many bigoted Americans exist, how many people are still firmly MAGA and love Trump cause he "tells it how it is" and how many people simply don't give a fuck about anything or anyone else except themselves (like their grocery prices coming down). It happens a lot in elections around the world, a far right nutjob gains millions of voters simply by banging on about, for example, immigrants being to blame for every issue in the world and they make lovely promises about how they're going to fix everyone's issues, so they vote against the current government and for the guy currently promising them the world.

There's going to be millions voting for Trump simply because they're bigoted, there's going to be millions voting for Trump because their grocery prices are high and they stupidly think Trump will fix it for them and Harris is part of the administration that they're blaming for it and there's sometimes no getting through to these people. There's millions sucked in by stupid propaganda spread by the likes of Twitter and TikTok.

If someone votes for Trump "Drill Baby Drill" and "Tariffs for Everyone" while Harris gives actual detailed economic policies, if someone votes for Trump after his disgusting attacks on migrants, if someone votes Trump after his insane ramblings, if someone votes Trump after he says Russia can kill America's allies. After he rips away women's rights, then that says a lot more about them and who they are than it does "Liberals" Imo.

Correct.  Most people are concerned about themselves and if one side has messaging all about helping others....  exactly my point.  It ain't working folks.  

And then when Harris loses Democrat voters because she says "Russia can kill our allies" "Deport all immigrants!" "They're eating our cats and dogs!" Etc, then what? Lol. Trump is in a better position to make promises about economic stuff even if they're utter bullshit because he's currently not the incumbent. Harris's policies are sound, and they do help Americans. But she's still the incumbent and people still blame her administration for things like grocery prices even if it's unfair criticism. Trump can promise them the world, Harris is expected to have already given them the world if she promises it; "Why didn't you do that before?! It's your administration!"

I'm not sure where you're getting the idea from that Harris isn't messaging about helping others, Biden almost shy'd away from talking about inflation and instead banged on about how amazing the stock market was doing, that came across as out of touch and didn't help him at all, Harris by comparison was immediately using a careful messaging on inflation and trying to come across as understanding, Biden by comparison was more "Nah we're all doing amazing bro" if you ask the average American if they care more about grocery prices or the stock market, what do you think they'll say? That's why Harris is doing a lot better than Biden on the economy.

I know Americans with stock, I don't doubt a lot of people have stock, what I do doubt is that it's a significant amount to help them in their daily lives.

Well running Biden was stupid and Harris was the only pick given timeliness.  The entire strategy for this election was stupid.  

And liberals are going to vote liberal.  Whomever gets the middle aisle is going to win and we shall see, but Trump is winning again.  

And GOP takes the senate 

Clearly there is a problem but problems can't be fixed until they are acknowledged.  And we will have to agree to disagree.  Liberals have a problem they refuse to acknowledge, IMHO.... and the polls and betting firms are showing it.  

It's still a toss-up though with Harris in the slight lead, no need to doom just yet, it was always going to be close.

I don't think polls are going to change at this point, Trump's ceiling seems to be 46%, I can't predict an event which would have a major affect on polling day to day, Trump's assassination attempts did nothing for him, the economy is improving, as long as Israel doesn't start a war with Iran and drive up oil prices, I think the polling is set in stone and we'll see what happens on election day.

Personally I think it's going to come down to enthusiasm turnout. There's some promising signs that enthusiasm remains high for Democrats though. I still think women are going to come out in force and with Harris eroding Trump's lead on issues that Republicans tend to lead on it could hurt some traditional Republican support. Could still go either way though. I'm not being complacent. There's a lot of bigoted people.