2024 US Presidential Election

[Chrkeller]

Ryuu96 said:

Chrkeller said:

Betting firms in the US have given Trump a 70% chance of winning the election with him taking WI, GA, PA and NC. Almost like liberals don't connect with the average person, but that can't be true, because when I mentioned it a hundred pages ago I was told I was wrong. :)

I swear a lot of the time it comes across like you're just looking for a fight despite being a Trump hater, Lol. Since when were betting odds the absolute definitive thing? Do you trust those betting odds more than the pollsters? None of the poll aggregators are anywhere near 70% to Trump. Betting can and does tend to change in an instant and can be gamed as well.

According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets—bookmakers now give Trump a 53.2% chance of winning in November, compared to Harris’ 45.8%. The biggest boost for Trump’s odds has come from bookmakers on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, who now predict Trump has a 55.8% chance of winning compared to Harris’ 43.5%.

In his blog post about the betting markets’ swing in favor of Trump, polling analyst Nate Silver wrote: “Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they’re in the doldrums...Someone (say Elon Musk) tweets about Trump gaining ground at Polymarket...People assume there must be something there, that somebody knows something, but usually it’s just a Rich Guy With Opinions.”

Forbes

RealClearPolitics Betting Average - 54.0 Trump / 44.7 Harris

Betting Odds - 2024 U.S. President

Where are you getting 70% chance of winning from?

Predictit (another betting firm) recently had Trump and Harris at both a 52% chance of winning, Lmao. Cause often the betting market is just made up nonsense that can be easily manipulated by rich idiots or a simple tweet from Musk. Betting firms don't connect with the average person, they take money from the average person with their made up shit.

Betting firms are not in the business of losing money.  And they have senate 51 to 49 in favor of GOP.  I can look for the article, I read it this morning.  

edit

And I do hate Trump and worry liberals are going to blow it yet again, because they do not connect with the average person (like I said a hundred pages ago).

Feels like the honeymoon boost is dying hard.  

Last edited by Chrkeller - on 11 October 2024