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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

 

Will it reach 40 million?

Yes it will 84 55.26%
 
No, it will fall short 68 44.74%
 
Total:152
Wman1996 on 15 January 2025
Kyuu said:

If Microsoft hadn't already confirmed that they're working on a next gen console, I might have assumed that they're done with traditional console hardware after this generation.

Still... I'm asking myself if they really are making a new "console" or just starting a series of Xbox-branded closed PC's, and maybe converting Xbox store to a Steam-like service. Wouldn't surprise me if Sony too launches a Steam-like store of their own in a decade or so, but obviously they'll tread more carefully.

I think it's ego at this point. They want at least one more shot at a console.

Realistically, Xbox PCs will probably start happening during or after Xbox 5's lifespan.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 40 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Esparadrapo on 15 January 2025

So Series closed 2024 with -48% units in Europe.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/european-pc-and-console-game-sales-rose-1-in-2024/



curl-6 on 15 January 2025

Falling 48% YOY in year 4 is pretty disastrous.

Considering how cheap the Series S can be got for, people really seem to be over Xbox.

Over a decade of mismanagement has gutted their reputation.



Kyuu on 15 January 2025
curl-6 said:

Falling 48% YOY in year 4 is pretty disastrous.

Considering how cheap the Series S can be got for, people really seem to be over Xbox.

Over a decade of mismanagement has gutted their reputation.

And the fact that PS5 too is declining is concerning for traditional home consoles and promising for PC and maybe Switch 2.

Series S never mattered all that much. And the PS5 has gone from an incredible value (hardware wise) to an overpriced system. We're potentially looking at a repeat to DS/PSP vs 3DS/Vita in that Xbox's collapse will not necessarily translate to higher PS5 or PS6 sales, and instead PS6 sales could go down by at least 25%.

Sony is probably calculating all of that and will find ways to remain strong, like launching the rumored portable SKU's. They will still need to slow down their PC support, consider selling hardware at a loss and returning to slightly or moderately weaker specs. AAA 1st party games like Spider-Man 2 going to PC in just 15 months probably devalues their consoles.



Esparadrapo 3 days ago

-38% in dollar sales in December in USA. Without taking in mind the fire sales last year lowering the units:

https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3lgg2dpa7sw2n



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only777 3 days ago
CosmicSex said:

This is actually really in doubt. The thing is, I would automatically assume it would reach 40 due simply to GTA... but there is now even doubt that Microsoft will even provide the stock. I have heard rumors of Microsoft removing stock across Europe and other regions. So before we can even begin to have this conversation, we have to know if Microsoft will even provide that many units period.

This is actually a really good point.  I too have read the pieces about low stock in Europe.

Esparadrapo said:

https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/microsoftxboxseriesx/
https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox/the-uk-and-other-regions-are-running-suspiciously-low-on-xbox-series-x-console
https://metro.co.uk/2024/12/18/xbox-denies-quitting-europe-report-claims-no-xbox-series-x-stock-poland-22212111/
https://metro.co.uk/2024/10/11/microsoft-responds-reports-xbox-pulling-saudi-arabia-21778746/
https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/xbox/forum/all/no-availability-of-xbox-series-x-in-india/4ef7b090-894b-42a4-9ffc-4e9ad6cc6212

Stock seems to be under minimums everywhere.

Spoiler: It's not because they are setting up XCloud blades or the demand is overwhelming.

I think it's worth keeping an eye on this because if this situation isn't solved by the summer, then it shows Microsoft have given up on the Series hardware.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

JRPGfan 3 days ago
only777 said:
CosmicSex said:

This is actually really in doubt. The thing is, I would automatically assume it would reach 40 due simply to GTA... but there is now even doubt that Microsoft will even provide the stock. I have heard rumors of Microsoft removing stock across Europe and other regions. So before we can even begin to have this conversation, we have to know if Microsoft will even provide that many units period.

This is actually a really good point.  I too have read the pieces about low stock in Europe.

Esparadrapo said:

https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/microsoftxboxseriesx/
https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox/the-uk-and-other-regions-are-running-suspiciously-low-on-xbox-series-x-console
https://metro.co.uk/2024/12/18/xbox-denies-quitting-europe-report-claims-no-xbox-series-x-stock-poland-22212111/
https://metro.co.uk/2024/10/11/microsoft-responds-reports-xbox-pulling-saudi-arabia-21778746/
https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/xbox/forum/all/no-availability-of-xbox-series-x-in-india/4ef7b090-894b-42a4-9ffc-4e9ad6cc6212

Stock seems to be under minimums everywhere.

Spoiler: It's not because they are setting up XCloud blades or the demand is overwhelming.

I think it's worth keeping an eye on this because if this situation isn't solved by the summer, then it shows Microsoft have given up on the Series hardware.

Some places its been this way since before October... just almost impossible to find a series x, and even the series S is hard to find.
Stuff like that effects sales. Like you can't sell something to consumers, if they cant figure out how to get one, or find one. The fact that many major retailers, don't have them, is going to effect overall sales.



Knitemare 3 days ago

At this point I can make a somehow educated guess and say it will be unable to reach 40 M. With the new MS strategies as putting their flagship games on other platforms, theres little to no chance to achieve those numbers. If it manages, it will be after the next gen is already started.



                          

"We all make choices, but in the end, our choices make us" - Andrew Ryan, Bioshock.

curl-6 3 days ago

VGChartz numbers have Xbox down 48% in the Americas for December:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463758/ps5-best-seller-xs-sales-drop-48-yoy-americas-hardware-estimates-for-december-2024/



Kyuu 3 days ago
curl-6 said:

VGChartz numbers have Xbox down 48% in the Americas for December:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/463758/ps5-best-seller-xs-sales-drop-48-yoy-americas-hardware-estimates-for-december-2024/

The "Xbox will beat and may double PS5 sales in the US" predictions aged like fine wine! It's bizarre how the consistent 3rd placer is always the one that gets majorly overestimated. X360's success is to blame I guess.