Truth is we dont know. It could be sub 30 million. In the far flung future when the truth comes out it will be interesting to see how close the estimates are.

Assuming it is at 34.1 million (it most likely is not) I dont see it getting to 36 million. Clearly Microsoft doesn't want it to sell. Between now and when the Asus Xbox Magnus launches in 2027 you should expect between 500k and 750k. I would love to be wrong here but as I pointed out Microsoft doesn't want to sell them so any positive momentum will trigger another price increase.

It could also be higher. Remember VGChartz and other analytes had the Xbox One at 51 million for years until Microsoft showed the real number being 58 million.

I understand what you are saying but just practically if it was higher I doubt Microsoft would be shipping on PlayStation and raising the price as much as they have.   Microsoft's actions and the actions of retailers like Costco tell us the sale are really horrible.  Every report we get has sales far lover than the Xbox One... except for Japan and that died quickly.   I dont ever remember the Xbox One being down 30-50% year over year for like 3 years and then down 70%.  Sales have never been this low for Xbox in November.  Also other folks like Kepler have stated that VGChartz has it overtracked.  

Yes VgChartz could be over tracking, but whatever number they and other analysts have it's all just a guess until we get the real numbers.

I think the reason Xbox is putting their games on all platforms is Satya Nadella after their ABK buyout. Their gaming division got so big that he wants their gaming division to be like their Office division of putting their products and services on as many devices as possible to reach more people. I think even if the Xbox Series sold better Satya would still push their Xbox division to put their games everywhere possible. He constantly talks about being everywhere. He cares more about selling their software and services than hardware. We're also seeing this with PlayStation to some degree with all their games going to PC, now we're seeing PlayStation license out their IPs and allowing them on Switch, and we saw Lego Horizon go to Switch and Helldivers 2 go to Xbox. I think the gaming landscape will be different in the next 5-10 years.

XBox isn't even bragging about MAU nor gamepass numbers this year and has cancelled the year's wrap-up...

https://www.eurogamer.net/new-report-claims-xbox-wrapped-2025-isnt-happening-this-year-due-to-marketing-budget-constraints

It all looks more like a general disinterest in the XBox platform, AI is where MS' head is at.

So... the latest rumor from inside gaming states that both Sony and Microsoft may be delaying their next console due to the Memory shortage and pricing issues plaguing the tech industry. Some crazy reports suggest 2030... which wouldn't make sense... but let's at least admit that there are too many potential caveats for us to know true end of life...

One would speculate that ia delays could help out with these numbers. At that point 36 million is not completely off the table. I think PS5 would be the greatest beneficiary of a delay boosting potential sales to 130 million (and more if we are talking about 2030 potential 140).

That is optimistic. 
With ram prices likely being crazy for all of 2026 and 2027..... launching a new console is gonna be pricey. 

Honestly I feel like most people are fine with PS5 graphics atm.... and not in a rush to go spend like 800$+ on a new console. 
I would rather devs target PS5 level's, and just sit back and ride things out, until this ram issue fixes itself, either due to demands being met (they can't keep building bigger and bigger data centers) and / or production kicking in overdrive (ei. more factories, or higher productions at factories due to changes made).

From the sound of things the next Xbox is gonna be an expensive premium device so it was probably already gonna be a pricey niche product. Cause of that I could see them launching in late 2027 anyway and just lowering the price once things settle. 

Yeah, and that goes back to Satya Nadella. He cares way more about AI and it's gonna backfire on Microsoft as a whole and other AI companies. He pretty much is undoing the work Phil Spencer did to try to make the Xbox brand relevant after the Kinect and Xbox One reveal. While I think the Xbox brand itself is still doing fine, it's their console that's not doing fine. It kinda reminds me about Sega in the 90's where the American and Japanese branches were clashing all the time. Sega Japan didn't care for Sega America's opinion even though they clearly knew better than Sega Japan. Their stupid prideful attitude and lack of knowing the industry ruined everything Sega America did with the Genesis, and I think that's what the high ups at Microsoft (Satya Nadella and Amy Hood) are doing to Xbox. Just let the people that know what they're doing make the decisions.

I still can't wrap my head around why MS is making a PSVR2 patch for FS2024. Putting FS2024 on PS5 fits their 'strategy', but porting it to PSVR2 as well makes no sense. Not that I'm complaining, looking forward to it actually making it.



But yeah it's obvious they don't give a crap about their own consoles anymore.