SvennoJ said:
I fully agree on the threat Russia poses if not contained. However Biden's administration has giving assurances to Netanyahu to back him up in case an all out war with Lebanon happens, which Netanyahu is dead set on starting as soon as he's done destroying Rafah.
Groups in Iraq are supporting the Houthis while thousands of Iran backed fighters are headed to Lebanon to strengthen Hezbollah. Israel wants to drag the USA into Israel's 'end game' in the Middle East.
Iran doesn't want war but they're not going to let Israel decimate Hezbollah with backing from the US. And if Biden is dumb enough to actually support Israel in an all out war with Hezbollah, then Russia might seize the opportunity to get way with more crap.
Biden needs to show a firm stance to Israel, an actual red line to end the war and not broaden it any further into Lebanon.
I don't know what Trump will do, he seems more into cutting off support either way even though Netanyahu would like to see him win the elections. Trump will give political cover but not so sure about him sending more military aid for all out war like Biden. That's still a while away though, Netanyahu is ready to invade Lebanon now. Biden is running out of time.
Putin and Netanyahu need to be dealt with and Biden is not up to the task. Trump would likely only make things worse. It's up to Europe to contain Russia, while the Arab states will need to contain Israel. The USA is only making matters worse whether it's Biden or Trump.
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I'm not happy with Biden's ironclad support of Israel no matter what they do but I just do not see it developing into WWIII which is an extreme jump from a localised war which I see the argument for, a localised war between a couple of countries while still horrific is nothing like a world war and would be more equivalent to previous wars in the Middle-East.
The only possible scenario I see it developing into a world war is if China in the chaos decides now is the time to invade Taiwan but China simply isn't ready yet (from a military standpoint) to do an invasion of Taiwan and America helping Israel is hardly going to restrict their ability to send warships to Taiwan.
While most countries there dislike Israel, they also hate the terrorist groups of Hezbollah, Houthis, etc. Nearly all 22 members of the Arab League designate Hezbollah as a terrorist group aside from Lebanon, Syria, Algeria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia is currently in conflict with the Houthis. None of them are willing to protect Palestine. The last time Israel went to war with Arab countries, the Six-Day-War ended up with Israel completely dominating them and that was before Israel acquired nukes.
Iran has always tried to hurt Israel outside their country, the fact that they still use Iran backed fighters but not officially Iranian armed forces tells me that Iran still does not want a war with Israel as they hide behind their "totally not supporting them" fighters. Not to mention the last thing Iran needs right now is a war when most of the country hates Iranian leadership and would love to see them dead, if America can weaken the Iranian regime it won't be long before a uprising breaks out to overthrow the government.
Iran has no ability to wage a conventional war against Israel. Most Arab countries wouldn't openly pick a side, they'd likely just stay quiet and let things play out. Lebanese Armed Forces will likely stay out of it, this would be a war between Israel and Hezbollah, not Israel and Lebanon. This would be the third war between Israel and Hezbollah, the last time Israel invaded in the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War Lebanese Armed Forces *mostly* stayed out of it. Some countries in that region would (not publicly, but privately) be happy to see Iran's influence further weakened.
Trump absolutely will not cut off support to Israel, Republican support for Israel is a lot stronger than it is for Democrats, Trump has repeatedly claimed himself as the most pro-Israel President ever, he told his donors that he will "crush" pro-Palestine protesters and deport them. He said that Israel has to "finish the problem". He said they have to "let things play out" and the biggest criticism of Israel he can muster is that "they have a PR problem" He has complained that any Jewish person who votes Democrat "hates their religion and Israel" and complained that Biden has "dumped" Israel and that the Democrats are "very bad" for Israel.
The only time Trump has ever been mad at Israel is when Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his victory in the election and when Israel refused to helped him kill the Iranian general...Like even Israel refused to help him kill an Iranian general. Trump is a bigoted xenophobe who hates Muslims and is only concerned about Israel's PR reputation and Trump will absolutely continue to send military aid, especially if Israel is paying for it, Lol.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 25 June 2024