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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Consoles Showdown 2024: May 4th

 

How much will the PS5 sell in 2024?

22M+ 3 17.65%
 
20-22M 3 17.65%
 
18-20M 7 41.18%
 
15-18M 4 23.53%
 
Under 15M 0 0%
 
Total:17
firebush03 said:

10mil for Switch seems unrealistic: That would likely require at least 4mil during Q4 (2.2mil Q1, 2.1mil Q2, 1.4mil Q3). I’d predict around 8mil.

As far as PS5 and Xbox is concerned? Hard to say (since I admittedly don’t pay too much attention to their numbers). If I were to give an estimate, I’d say 21mil for PS5, 8mil for Xbox.

Why would it seem unrealistic?

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q1 (Apr-June): 3.43M vs 3.91M (+114%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q2 (July-Sept): 3.25M vs 2.93M (-10%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q3 (Oct-Dec): 8.22M vs 5.72M (-32%)

FY 2022 (2023) vs FY 2023 (2024) Q4 (Jan-Mar): 3.07M vs Hasn't happened yet but guestimate of -30%, 2.15M (195k in Japan as of Jan 21 2023)

We can see that Nintendo is starting to decline in the -30% range, and that -30% stays throughout the fiscal year (FY). Based on this assumption, we can make a prediction. I will use FY 2022 Q1 as my base for FY 2024 Q1 because FY 2023 Q1 had Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 4.00M
FY '24 Q4 (2025): 1.51M

This leads to a total of 9.96M for the fiscal year of 2024. This is also if there is no new console being released, and if there isn't any big AAA Nintendo published games (like Tears of the Kingdom). This will require Nintendo to make a change to reach 10M in shipments.
We will understand what will be happening once May starts, since that is when they release their Earnings Release which contains their FY '24 goal.

*I forget how the numbers work with FY. When I write FY '24 I am talking about Apr 2024- Mar 2025. If that means it is FY'25, please let me know. Thanks

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 02 February 2024

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Around the Network

There are rumors that Nintendo wants to sell 10M next generation hardware units by the end of March 31st 2025. If this is the case, we can do some simple math with the Earning Release in May. If Nintendo sets the goal of 20M then we will know that they Nintendo Switch goal is 10M (20-10=10).
If their goal is greater than 20 then we should expect something big to happen for the Switch.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 02 February 2024

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
firebush03 said:

10mil for Switch seems unrealistic: That would likely require at least 4mil during Q4 (2.2mil Q1, 2.1mil Q2, 1.4mil Q3). I’d predict around 8mil.

As far as PS5 and Xbox is concerned? Hard to say (since I admittedly don’t pay too much attention to their numbers). If I were to give an estimate, I’d say 21mil for PS5, 8mil for Xbox.

Why would it seem unrealistic?

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q1 (Apr-June): 3.43M vs 3.91M (+114%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q2 (July-Sept): 3.25M vs 2.93M (-10%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q3 (Oct-Dec): 8.22M vs 5.72M (-32%)

FY 2022 (2023) vs FY 2023 (2024) Q4 (Jan-Mar): 3.07M vs Hasn't happened yet but guestimate of -30%, 2.15M (195k in Japan as of Jan 21 2023)

We can see that Nintendo is starting to decline in the -30% range, and that -30% stays throughout the fiscal year (FY). Based on this assumption, we can make a prediction. I will use FY 2022 Q1 as my base for FY 2024 Q1 because FY 2023 Q1 had Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 4.00M
FY '24 Q4 (2025): 1.51M

This leads to a total of 9.96M for the fiscal year of 2024. This is also if there is no new console being released, and if there isn't any big AAA Nintendo published games (like Tears of the Kingdom). This will require Nintendo to make a change to reach 10M in shipments.
We will understand what will be happening once May starts, since that is when they release their Earnings Release which contains their FY '24 goal.

*I forget how the numbers work with FY. When I write FY '24 I am talking about Apr 2024- Mar 2025. If that means it is FY'25, please let me know. Thanks

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The part that I find hard to believe is the expectation that Switch will only see 30% decline YoY. Once the successor drops, that decline will certainly become a lot more steep. Plus the Switch (at least for the present moment) has no major titles planned for this year. And I know you specified in your post that you’re providing numbers under the assumption that the successor doesn’t release this year (at least I think this is what you were saying?), but I just can’t see Nintendo pushing their new hardware another year. There is certainly mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.



Shtinamin_ said:
firebush03 said:

10mil for Switch seems unrealistic: That would likely require at least 4mil during Q4 (2.2mil Q1, 2.1mil Q2, 1.4mil Q3). I’d predict around 8mil.

As far as PS5 and Xbox is concerned? Hard to say (since I admittedly don’t pay too much attention to their numbers). If I were to give an estimate, I’d say 21mil for PS5, 8mil for Xbox.

Why would it seem unrealistic?

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q1 (Apr-June): 3.43M vs 3.91M (+114%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q2 (July-Sept): 3.25M vs 2.93M (-10%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q3 (Oct-Dec): 8.22M vs 5.72M (-32%)

FY 2022 (2023) vs FY 2023 (2024) Q4 (Jan-Mar): 3.07M vs Hasn't happened yet but guestimate of -30%, 2.15M (195k in Japan as of Jan 21 2023)

We can see that Nintendo is starting to decline in the -30% range, and that -30% stays throughout the fiscal year (FY). Based on this assumption, we can make a prediction. I will use FY 2022 Q1 as my base for FY 2024 Q1 because FY 2023 Q1 had Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 4.00M
FY '24 Q4 (2025): 1.51M

This leads to a total of 9.96M for the fiscal year of 2024. This is also if there is no new console being released, and if there isn't any big AAA Nintendo published games (like Tears of the Kingdom). This will require Nintendo to make a change to reach 10M in shipments.
We will understand what will be happening once May starts, since that is when they release their Earnings Release which contains their FY '24 goal.

*I forget how the numbers work with FY. When I write FY '24 I am talking about Apr 2024- Mar 2025. If that means it is FY'25, please let me know. Thanks

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

After the slowing phase start it usually drops more every year, but let's see if Switch will manage a fantastic 30% drop for the 8th year (not impossible of course, and well bigger than any year of X1 and series I think).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

firebush03 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Why would it seem unrealistic?

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q1 (Apr-June): 3.43M vs 3.91M (+114%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q2 (July-Sept): 3.25M vs 2.93M (-10%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q3 (Oct-Dec): 8.22M vs 5.72M (-32%)

FY 2022 (2023) vs FY 2023 (2024) Q4 (Jan-Mar): 3.07M vs Hasn't happened yet but guestimate of -30%, 2.15M (195k in Japan as of Jan 21 2023)

We can see that Nintendo is starting to decline in the -30% range, and that -30% stays throughout the fiscal year (FY). Based on this assumption, we can make a prediction. I will use FY 2022 Q1 as my base for FY 2024 Q1 because FY 2023 Q1 had Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 4.00M
FY '24 Q4 (2025): 1.51M

This leads to a total of 9.96M for the fiscal year of 2024. This is also if there is no new console being released, and if there isn't any big AAA Nintendo published games (like Tears of the Kingdom). This will require Nintendo to make a change to reach 10M in shipments.
We will understand what will be happening once May starts, since that is when they release their Earnings Release which contains their FY '24 goal.

*I forget how the numbers work with FY. When I write FY '24 I am talking about Apr 2024- Mar 2025. If that means it is FY'25, please let me know. Thanks

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The part that I find hard to believe is the expectation that Switch will only see 30% decline YoY. Once the successor drops, that decline will certainly become a lot more steep. Plus the Switch (at least for the present moment) has no major titles planned for this year. And I know you specified in your post that you’re providing numbers under the assumption that the successor doesn’t release this year (at least I think this is what you were saying?), but I just can’t see Nintendo pushing their new hardware another year. There is certainly mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.

I see the Switch at least keeping the -30% decline in the quarter reports until the next gen console is released. Rumors have it releasing in Sept - Nov 2024, for simplicity lets say it releases in Oct, so the Q2 is pure Switch. Once a new console drops it will drop to -50% so it should look like this if the new console releases in the specified month.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 2.86M
FY '24 Q4: 1.08M
Bringing the March 31 2025 total to 8.39M, a -45% drop compared to the 15M goal Nintendo wants to reach by March 31 2024.

We will have a better understanding once the Yearly Earnings Release is available. Because rumors have Nintendo wanting to sell 10M units of their new console by March 31 2025. So we should be able to do some simple math. I predict to see 20M units as their goal.

(I think the FY for 2024-2025 is supposed to be FY '25)

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 02 February 2024

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Around the Network
Shtinamin_ said:
firebush03 said:

The part that I find hard to believe is the expectation that Switch will only see 30% decline YoY. Once the successor drops, that decline will certainly become a lot more steep. Plus the Switch (at least for the present moment) has no major titles planned for this year. And I know you specified in your post that you’re providing numbers under the assumption that the successor doesn’t release this year (at least I think this is what you were saying?), but I just can’t see Nintendo pushing their new hardware another year. There is certainly mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.

I see the Switch at least keeping the -30% decline in the quarter reports until the next gen console is released. Rumors have it releasing in Sept - Nov 2024, for simplicity lets say it releases in Oct, so the Q2 is pure Switch. Once a new console drops it will drop to -50% so it should look like this if the new console releases in the specified month.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 2.86M
FY '24 Q4: 1.08M
Bringing the March 31 2025 total to 8.39M, a -45% drop compared to the 15M goal Nintendo wants to reach by March 31 2024.

We will have a better understanding once the Yearly Earnings Release is available. Because rumors have Nintendo wanting to sell 10M units of their new console by March 31 2025. So we should be able to do some simple math. I predict to see 20M units as their goal.

(I think the FY for 2024-2025 is supposed to be FY '25)

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

I saw somewhere (and may be fake) that Nintendo said in a earning call that they don't plan to manufacture enough Switch to outsell PS2.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I see the Switch at least keeping the -30% decline in the quarter reports until the next gen console is released. Rumors have it releasing in Sept - Nov 2024, for simplicity lets say it releases in Oct, so the Q2 is pure Switch. Once a new console drops it will drop to -50% so it should look like this if the new console releases in the specified month.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 2.86M
FY '24 Q4: 1.08M
Bringing the March 31 2025 total to 8.39M, a -45% drop compared to the 15M goal Nintendo wants to reach by March 31 2024.

We will have a better understanding once the Yearly Earnings Release is available. Because rumors have Nintendo wanting to sell 10M units of their new console by March 31 2025. So we should be able to do some simple math. I predict to see 20M units as their goal.

(I think the FY for 2024-2025 is supposed to be FY '25)

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

I saw somewhere (and may be fake) that Nintendo said in a earning call that they don't plan to manufacture enough Switch to outsell PS2.

I haven't seen anything yet.
If you can find it, then we can have closure.
Until then, we will continue to make assumptions, and logical assessments.

Honestly, that would be rather sad if that earning call is true.

If you find it, please let us know.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 02 February 2024

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
firebush03 said:

The part that I find hard to believe is the expectation that Switch will only see 30% decline YoY. Once the successor drops, that decline will certainly become a lot more steep. Plus the Switch (at least for the present moment) has no major titles planned for this year. And I know you specified in your post that you’re providing numbers under the assumption that the successor doesn’t release this year (at least I think this is what you were saying?), but I just can’t see Nintendo pushing their new hardware another year. There is certainly mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.

I see the Switch at least keeping the -30% decline in the quarter reports until the next gen console is released. Rumors have it releasing in Sept - Nov 2024, for simplicity lets say it releases in Oct, so the Q2 is pure Switch. Once a new console drops it will drop to -50% so it should look like this if the new console releases in the specified month.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 2.86M
FY '24 Q4: 1.08M
Bringing the March 31 2025 total to 8.39M, a -45% drop compared to the 15M goal Nintendo wants to reach by March 31 2024.

We will have a better understanding once the Yearly Earnings Release is available. Because rumors have Nintendo wanting to sell 10M units of their new console by March 31 2025. So we should be able to do some simple math. I predict to see 20M units as their goal.

(I think the FY for 2024-2025 is supposed to be FY '25)

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

(p.s. Your bottom thing with all the LTD predictions is doubled on all your posts. In case you weren’t aware, thought I’d point it out.) This is a very agreeable prediction btw. Seems very in-line with what we should anticipate, unless Switch 2 flops hard.



firebush03 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I see the Switch at least keeping the -30% decline in the quarter reports until the next gen console is released. Rumors have it releasing in Sept - Nov 2024, for simplicity lets say it releases in Oct, so the Q2 is pure Switch. Once a new console drops it will drop to -50% so it should look like this if the new console releases in the specified month.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 2.86M
FY '24 Q4: 1.08M
Bringing the March 31 2025 total to 8.39M, a -45% drop compared to the 15M goal Nintendo wants to reach by March 31 2024.

We will have a better understanding once the Yearly Earnings Release is available. Because rumors have Nintendo wanting to sell 10M units of their new console by March 31 2025. So we should be able to do some simple math. I predict to see 20M units as their goal.

(I think the FY for 2024-2025 is supposed to be FY '25)

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

(p.s. Your bottom thing with all the LTD predictions is doubled on all your posts. In case you weren’t aware, thought I’d point it out.) This is a very agreeable prediction btw. Seems very in-line with what we should anticipate, unless Switch 2 flops hard.

Sorry, I was having a hard time figuring out how to do a signature, luckily I had some help and should be fixed now. 

Thanks, I made this prediction to match rumors, and logical percentage drops we've seen in the past.

I personally think that Nintendo will be able to sell near 10M Switch units from Apr 1 2024-Mar 31 2025.

I also think that Nintendo would want to have a March release for hardware, that way they have a huge sale on the hardcore fans in March, and a huge sale for more casual in the December. I think the Switch proved that was a good plan.
Let's see what the Yearly Earnings Release will say. If it is 20M, then the NG releases in 2024. If it says 10M, then expect the NG in 2025.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

PS5 ~ 20-22m
Switch ~8-12m
Xbox S X/S ~ 6-7m

I can see all 3 being towards the lower ends of those estimates.
Like I wouldn't be shocked if xbox only sells 6m consoles this year, or if Switch only does like 8m (since Switch 2 is comeing).