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firebush03 on 01 February 2024
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Shtinamin_ said:
firebush03 said:

10mil for Switch seems unrealistic: That would likely require at least 4mil during Q4 (2.2mil Q1, 2.1mil Q2, 1.4mil Q3). I’d predict around 8mil.

As far as PS5 and Xbox is concerned? Hard to say (since I admittedly don’t pay too much attention to their numbers). If I were to give an estimate, I’d say 21mil for PS5, 8mil for Xbox.

Why would it seem unrealistic?

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q1 (Apr-June): 3.43M vs 3.91M (+114%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q2 (July-Sept): 3.25M vs 2.93M (-10%)

FY 2022 vs FY 2023 Q3 (Oct-Dec): 8.22M vs 5.72M (-32%)

FY 2022 (2023) vs FY 2023 (2024) Q4 (Jan-Mar): 3.07M vs Hasn't happened yet but guestimate of -30%, 2.15M (195k in Japan as of Jan 21 2023)

We can see that Nintendo is starting to decline in the -30% range, and that -30% stays throughout the fiscal year (FY). Based on this assumption, we can make a prediction. I will use FY 2022 Q1 as my base for FY 2024 Q1 because FY 2023 Q1 had Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 4.00M
FY '24 Q4 (2025): 1.51M

This leads to a total of 9.96M for the fiscal year of 2024. This is also if there is no new console being released, and if there isn't any big AAA Nintendo published games (like Tears of the Kingdom). This will require Nintendo to make a change to reach 10M in shipments.
We will understand what will be happening once May starts, since that is when they release their Earnings Release which contains their FY '24 goal.

*I forget how the numbers work with FY. When I write FY '24 I am talking about Apr 2024- Mar 2025. If that means it is FY'25, please let me know. Thanks

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The part that I find hard to believe is the expectation that Switch will only see 30% decline YoY. Once the successor drops, that decline will certainly become a lot more steep. Plus the Switch (at least for the present moment) has no major titles planned for this year. And I know you specified in your post that you’re providing numbers under the assumption that the successor doesn’t release this year (at least I think this is what you were saying?), but I just can’t see Nintendo pushing their new hardware another year. There is certainly mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.