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Shtinamin_ said:
firebush03 said:

The part that I find hard to believe is the expectation that Switch will only see 30% decline YoY. Once the successor drops, that decline will certainly become a lot more steep. Plus the Switch (at least for the present moment) has no major titles planned for this year. And I know you specified in your post that you’re providing numbers under the assumption that the successor doesn’t release this year (at least I think this is what you were saying?), but I just can’t see Nintendo pushing their new hardware another year. There is certainly mounting evidence to suggest otherwise.

I see the Switch at least keeping the -30% decline in the quarter reports until the next gen console is released. Rumors have it releasing in Sept - Nov 2024, for simplicity lets say it releases in Oct, so the Q2 is pure Switch. Once a new console drops it will drop to -50% so it should look like this if the new console releases in the specified month.
FY '24 Q1: 2.40M
FY '24 Q2: 2.05M
FY '24 Q3: 2.86M
FY '24 Q4: 1.08M
Bringing the March 31 2025 total to 8.39M, a -45% drop compared to the 15M goal Nintendo wants to reach by March 31 2024.

We will have a better understanding once the Yearly Earnings Release is available. Because rumors have Nintendo wanting to sell 10M units of their new console by March 31 2025. So we should be able to do some simple math. I predict to see 20M units as their goal.

(I think the FY for 2024-2025 is supposed to be FY '25)

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

(p.s. Your bottom thing with all the LTD predictions is doubled on all your posts. In case you weren’t aware, thought I’d point it out.) This is a very agreeable prediction btw. Seems very in-line with what we should anticipate, unless Switch 2 flops hard.