Going back to OP's comments. In order to figure this out we would need certain information, which we won't have until the NG is released and maybe even 6+ months into its lifespan.
#1. Pricing of the NG
The rumors have stated that the NG will have two versions out of the gate. A $400 digital only NG, and a $450 NG. This does seem rather steep of an entry level price for a Nintendo console. Nintendo usually sells their consoles at the $300 price range. Maybe the NG's components are pricey and will have some bang to their buck. If the price of the NG is $400 & $450, then I don't think it will sell as well as the Nintendo Switch (but I haven't seen the consoles nor talked about the other points). But just based on price, I think it should earn a minimum of 110 million surpassing the Wii. And a max of 118 million.
#2 Specs of the NG
Once again we will be looking at the rumors. According the Eurogamer and VGC, Nintendo held a demos for the NG at Gamescom.
-"Nintendo showcased Epic’s impressive The Matrix Awakens Unreal Engine 5 tech demo". Side note, that tech demo was released on Xbox Series X, and PS5 in 2021 in order to demonstrate the power of those two. This means the NG is gonna be a surprising upgrade.
-In this same showcase, the demo was also run using Nvidia's advanced DLSS upscaling technology, tech that uses AI to make images better. Nintendo had a patent back on March 2020 (that went to the public in 2021) where the device can be at a certain resolution while a secondary device boosts the resolution greatly. If Nintendo is using the DLSS, then we are about to see some amazing, stunning, and gorgeous games.
-Same rumors mention that the NG will be running on an LCD screen instead of an OLED in order to lower the cost of production and lower retail prices. Sounds like they'll release a NG OLED 3-4 years after the NG's release, just like the Switch.
-It has also been rumored to have ray tracing technology capability. The leading consoles have the ability to support ray tracing as well. This is bring the NG on par with PS5, Xbox Series X performance
-It will be portable, just like the Switch
With at just the specs in mind, the NG will sell a minimum of 120 million and a max of 129 million.
#3 Game Catalog
•3rd Party
-Call of Duty (10 games minimum)
-Speculated GTA VI (we'll find out Dec 5th)
-EA Sports
•Backwards Compatibility with Switch games (+4531 games)
•1st Party
-3D Mario
-2D Mario
-Legend of Zelda (at least 2)
-Mario Kart 9 (dubbed Mario Kart X, and is the most expensive game Nintendo will have ever made)
-Splatoon
-Animal Crossing
-DK
-Mario-related RPG
-Kirby
-Mario Party, and sports games
•Indie Games
-Hollow Knight 3?
Playing games on the go, and playing really acclaimed brands. This alone will sell it 110 million on the low end, and 130 on the high end.
#4 Life Cycle
If the last couple of Nintendo consoles, and handhelds have in common is that their life cycle last for 10 years. Wii lasted 10 years, 3DS lasted 10 years, and the DS lasted 11 years. Nintendo has stated with the Switch that, they are redefining what a console life cycle can look like, and have stated the Switch is at its halfway point in 2022 (which is about 6 years into the Switch's life cycle, meaning the Switch can be selling for about 12 years). I believe Nintendo will try to do the same with the NG, redefine what a console life cycle can look like. The NG will automatically be selling for 10 years based on Nintendo patterns, and may be selling for even longer nearing 12-15 years.
Given this alone, if the NG's lifecycle is 10 years it will be an easy 130 million, if it's life cycle is 12 or more then we should be expecting close to 150 million.
Now that we've seen some points, rumors, and data we can make an educated guesstimate. If we are being optimistic to say that all those rumors are true, its quality in 1st Part, 3rd Party and Indie games are sensational, its pricing is in the ballpark of affordable, backwards compatibility, and specs, then the NG can easily sell from a minimum to 139 million to the max of 168 million. If none are true then the NG will become like unto its grandfather the WiiU selling at least 20-30 million, for it will be a Switch with a new skin, hopefully Nintendo learned their lesson from the WiiU mistakes.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.