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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will the Switch's successor outsell the original Switch?

Going back to OP's comments. In order to figure this out we would need certain information, which we won't have until the NG is released and maybe even 6+ months into its lifespan.
#1. Pricing of the NG
The rumors have stated that the NG will have two versions out of the gate. A $400 digital only NG, and a $450 NG. This does seem rather steep of an entry level price for a Nintendo console. Nintendo usually sells their consoles at the $300 price range. Maybe the NG's components are pricey and will have some bang to their buck. If the price of the NG is $400 & $450, then I don't think it will sell as well as the Nintendo Switch (but I haven't seen the consoles nor talked about the other points). But just based on price, I think it should earn a minimum of 110 million surpassing the Wii. And a max of 118 million.

#2 Specs of the NG
Once again we will be looking at the rumors. According the Eurogamer and VGC, Nintendo held a demos for the NG at Gamescom.
-"Nintendo showcased Epic’s impressive The Matrix Awakens Unreal Engine 5 tech demo". Side note, that tech demo was released on Xbox Series X, and PS5 in 2021 in order to demonstrate the power of those two. This means the NG is gonna be a surprising upgrade.
-In this same showcase, the demo was also run using Nvidia's advanced DLSS upscaling technology, tech that uses AI to make images better. Nintendo had a patent back on March 2020 (that went to the public in 2021) where the device can be at a certain resolution while a secondary device boosts the resolution greatly. If Nintendo is using the DLSS, then we are about to see some amazing, stunning, and gorgeous games.
-Same rumors mention that the NG will be running on an LCD screen instead of an OLED in order to lower the cost of production and lower retail prices. Sounds like they'll release a NG OLED 3-4 years after the NG's release, just like the Switch.
-It has also been rumored to have ray tracing technology capability. The leading consoles have the ability to support ray tracing as well. This is bring the NG on par with PS5, Xbox Series X performance
-It will be portable, just like the Switch
With at just the specs in mind, the NG will sell a minimum of 120 million and a max of 129 million.

#3 Game Catalog
3rd Party
-Call of Duty (10 games minimum)
-Speculated GTA VI (we'll find out Dec 5th)
-EA Sports
Backwards Compatibility with Switch games (+4531 games)
1st Party
-3D Mario
-2D Mario
-Legend of Zelda (at least 2)
-Mario Kart 9 (dubbed Mario Kart X, and is the most expensive game Nintendo will have ever made)
-Splatoon
-Animal Crossing
-DK
-Mario-related RPG
-Kirby
-Mario Party, and sports games
Indie Games
-Hollow Knight 3?
Playing games on the go, and playing really acclaimed brands. This alone will sell it 110 million on the low end, and 130 on the high end.

#4 Life Cycle
If the last couple of Nintendo consoles, and handhelds have in common is that their life cycle last for 10 years. Wii lasted 10 years, 3DS lasted 10 years, and the DS lasted 11 years. Nintendo has stated with the Switch that, they are redefining what a console life cycle can look like, and have stated the Switch is at its halfway point in 2022 (which is about 6 years into the Switch's life cycle, meaning the Switch can be selling for about 12 years). I believe Nintendo will try to do the same with the NG, redefine what a console life cycle can look like. The NG will automatically be selling for 10 years based on Nintendo patterns, and may be selling for even longer nearing 12-15 years.
Given this alone, if the NG's lifecycle is 10 years it will be an easy 130 million, if it's life cycle is 12 or more then we should be expecting close to 150 million.


Now that we've seen some points, rumors, and data we can make an educated guesstimate. If we are being optimistic to say that all those rumors are true, its quality in 1st Part, 3rd Party and Indie games are sensational, its pricing is in the ballpark of affordable, backwards compatibility, and specs, then the NG can easily sell from a minimum to 139 million to the max of 168 million. If none are true then the NG will become like unto its grandfather the WiiU selling at least 20-30 million, for it will be a Switch with a new skin, hopefully Nintendo learned their lesson from the WiiU mistakes.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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zorg1000 said:


idk, I just don’t see how this

Is somehow more of a transformation than this

You keep bringing up that none of those things are new but I never once claimed that any of these technologies in Switch are new, I think Switch is like DS & Wii in the sense that DS wasn’t the first gaming device with a touch screen and Wii wasn’t the first gaming device with motion controls but the execution and emphasis on them made them stick out and seem like fresh, new products. Switch isn’t the first hybrid device by a long shot but the way that it’s executed in such a seamless way and it’s one of the main driving forces of the devices appeal is the difference between it and other devices that have the ability to connect to a TV, where it’s essentially an afterthought or one of hundreds of rarely used features.



Even if Switch is a “shit”fixed device (I don’t think it is but this is getting into personal preference) because of controller size or low specs, doesn’t change the fact that it can be used 100% of the time as a fixed device. I can put my Switch in its dock, connected to a power source and connected to the TV with my joy-cons plugged into the joy-con grip and literally never have to switch it back to portable mode or have to buy anything extra to make it work as a console.


You haven't answered my question though.

Because the device is the same, you are just pulling it out of a dock. It physically doesn't change.

However, I digress. My point is that the Switch is not a Hybrid, but my argument also was... That other devices like phones, tablets and laptops are also not a Hybrid, the 2 in 1 laptops are a Laptop with extra "features". - But they are arguably "more" of a Hybrid than the Switch as they can physically alter their usage.
The fact they go from a Tablet to a Laptop doesn't really change the fact it is primarily a mobile device.

And yes... As a fixed Home Console the Switch is a poor device.
It lacks performance and features of fixed home consoles, that's not personal opinion, that's objective fact.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:


Because the device is the same, you are just pulling it out of a dock. It physically doesn't change.

My point is that the Switch is not a Hybrid, but my argument also was... That other devices like phones, tablets and laptops are also not a Hybrid, the 2 in 1 laptops are a Laptop with extra "features". - But they are arguably "more" of a Hybrid than the Switch as they can physically alter their usage.
The fact they go from a Tablet to a Laptop doesn't really change the fact it is primarily a mobile device.

Hmmm, sorry to butt in but this looks like an interesting conversation.
So Permalite you say the Switch, phones, tablets, and laptops aren't hybrid devices. And zorg1000 says that the Switch is a hybrid? 
Permalite, I think that your definition of a hybrid isn't clear concise and direct. This is how I would describe a hybrid device: "Hybrid technology systems combine two or more technologies with the aim to achieve efficient systems."
Can we all agree that this is a solid definition to use for hybrid devices?

Now we can ask if the Nintendo switch combine two or more technologies to become a more efficient device?
-Switch is a tablet that has a form of bluetooth to connect with controllers, plays games, and connects to an external device to bring it to a bigger screen (usually a TV).
-Switch allows gaming at home, and gaming-on-the-go.
Given this, we can make the deduction that, yes Nintendo Switch is a Hybrid for it has multiple ways to use it, handheld tv tabletop, and uses multiple technologies to allow gaming to be efficient.

Does the switch have a physical change when their usage changes? No, at least to me and the definition I provided, that isn't what makes a hybrid and hybrid.

May I ask what your definition of a hybrid device is?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The line between "handheld" and "home console" is getting blurred. This really is all what "hybrid" conveys to me. Hybrid is an inevitability to all mobile devices, but the Switch was the first mainstream system to adopt the concept. The Switch gives you the tools and type of games that almost make you forget that it's a mobile device at its core.

Before the Switch, handheld and home consoles delivered different experiences. Some PSP and Vita games were fairly "home console like", but generally they weren't, and neither system was feature complete. PSP had much better visuals than PS1, and yet its games didn't feel as full or as home-consoley! Handheld game prices were also about 30% lower than home console games, which hints a much lower average of game development costs/times.

So while the hardware technology of the Switch is mobile, it is a hybrid by function. In a few years, the word "hybrid" will disappear, because all mobile devices will provide a home-console-like experience.

PSP was something of a pseudo-hybrid, but the Switch was the first device to truly make you feel like you're using a complete home console.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 02 December 2023

Shtinamin_ said:
Pemalite said:


Because the device is the same, you are just pulling it out of a dock. It physically doesn't change.

My point is that the Switch is not a Hybrid, but my argument also was... That other devices like phones, tablets and laptops are also not a Hybrid, the 2 in 1 laptops are a Laptop with extra "features". - But they are arguably "more" of a Hybrid than the Switch as they can physically alter their usage.
The fact they go from a Tablet to a Laptop doesn't really change the fact it is primarily a mobile device.

Hmmm, sorry to butt in but this looks like an interesting conversation.
So Permalite you say the Switch, phones, tablets, and laptops aren't hybrid devices. And zorg1000 says that the Switch is a hybrid? 
Permalite, I think that your definition of a hybrid isn't clear concise and direct. This is how I would describe a hybrid device: "Hybrid technology systems combine two or more technologies with the aim to achieve efficient systems."
Can we all agree that this is a solid definition to use for hybrid devices?

Now we can ask if the Nintendo switch combine two or more technologies to become a more efficient device?
-Switch is a tablet that has a form of bluetooth to connect with controllers, plays games, and connects to an external device to bring it to a bigger screen (usually a TV).
-Switch allows gaming at home, and gaming-on-the-go.
Given this, we can make the deduction that, yes Nintendo Switch is a Hybrid for it has multiple ways to use it, handheld tv tabletop, and uses multiple technologies to allow gaming to be efficient.

Does the switch have a physical change when their usage changes? No, at least to me and the definition I provided, that isn't what makes a hybrid and hybrid.

May I ask what your definition of a hybrid device is?

It's a portable/handheld first and foremost.
It has a display, battery, wifi in a convenient portable form factor.

It just has "features" that allows it to do a few extra tricks/gimmicks. - Doesn't make it a Hybrid.

Is the Steamdeck a Hybrid?
Is the Aya Neo a Hybrid?
Is the ROG ally a Hybrid?
Is the PSP a Hybrid?
Is the Sega Nomad a Hybrid?
Is the iPhone 15 a Hybrid?
Is the Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra Hybrid?
Is the iPad a Hybrid?
Is the Samsung Galaxy Tab a Hybrid?

I could go on. - They could all "Output" to an external display just like the Switch, most even have docks, some could also do it wirelessly.

So what feature specifically do -you- think makes the Switch a Hybrid?
Because it's certainly not the capability to output to a display or dock.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

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Pemalite said:

It's a portable/handheld first and foremost.
It has a display, battery, wifi in a convenient portable form factor.


Is the Steamdeck a Hybrid?
Is the Aya Neo a Hybrid?
Is the ROG ally a Hybrid?
Is the PSP a Hybrid?
Is the Sega Nomad a Hybrid?
Is the iPhone 15 a Hybrid?
Is the Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra Hybrid?
Is the iPad a Hybrid?
Is the Samsung Galaxy Tab a Hybrid?

I could go on. - They could all "Output" to an external display just like the Switch, most even have docks, some could also do it wirelessly.

So what feature specifically do -you- think makes the Switch a Hybrid?
Because it's certainly not the capability to output to a display or dock.

Exclusive controllers and local multiplayer support on the same device 

Last edited by 160rmf - on 03 December 2023

 

 

We reap what we sow

I can’t believe that this is what this thread has turned into. Take this hybrid vs non-hybrid debate to its own thread. It has literally nothing to do with the thread title. I know we’re hard up for conversation here…and topics, but can’t we keep some of the decency of forum etiquette?



160rmf said:
Pemalite said:

It's a portable/handheld first and foremost.
It has a display, battery, wifi in a convenient portable form factor.


Is the Steamdeck a Hybrid?
Is the Aya Neo a Hybrid?
Is the ROG ally a Hybrid?
Is the PSP a Hybrid?
Is the Sega Nomad a Hybrid?
Is the iPhone 15 a Hybrid?
Is the Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra Hybrid?
Is the iPad a Hybrid?
Is the Samsung Galaxy Tab a Hybrid?

I could go on. - They could all "Output" to an external display just like the Switch, most even have docks, some could also do it wirelessly.

So what feature specifically do -you- think makes the Switch a Hybrid?
Because it's certainly not the capability to output to a display or dock.

Exclusive controllers and local multiplayer support on the same device 

...You mean like a Nintendo 64? Xbox 360?



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:
160rmf said:

Exclusive controllers and local multiplayer support on the same device 

...You mean like a Nintendo 64? Xbox 360?

Uh... yeah? Wasn't the whole point of a Hybrid is having a full experience of a home console and a handheld on the same device? So, there you have it. Two features that you won't find in any of these devices that you listed or any handheld. Making the Switch a different product

Hasn't this conversation derailed enough this thread already?



 

 

We reap what we sow

Calling a phone and a tablet just as much as a hybrid as a Switch is stupid. Just cause you technically could connect them to a TV doesn't make it valid to say its a hybrid equivalent to the Switch. The Switch is far more seemless in connecting to a TV and comes with a dock and remotes that make playing on the TV still the definitive experience of the Switch. Nobody views a phone connecting to the TV a definitive experience to the slightest, or as seemless to really consider it being close to the Switch at all. It's far less seemless, doesn't include controls that make using a phone on a TV as a primary focused feature.

Calling a phone just as much of a hybrid as a Switch is equivalent to calling a phone just as much of a console as a PS5 just cause a phone could play games, it isnt comparable.