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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 126 84.56%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.44%
 
Total:149
peachbuggy on 04 October 2023
Norion said:
Slownenberg said:

Huh?? Close to 60m by end of this year?? It's not selling 18 million this quarter, or anywhere near that lol. It'll probably be a little over 50m, nowhere near 60m, by end of this year.

Wonder won't need years to outsell Spiderman, it'll outsell it by a large amount from day 1, so Switch 2 coming out probably a year after Wonder comes out isn't a big deal. There is no point at which Wonder will have sold less than Spiderman. Wonder has a good chance of outselling Spiderman's lifetime PS5 sales just in its opening quarter this holiday season, so it doesn't need to be selling big numbers in 2025 and beyond to do it.

The PS4 was at 53.5 million by the end of 2016 and the PS5 is about to overtake it so as long as it doesn't have a weaker holiday season than the PS4 did that year for whatever reason it will indeed be close to 60m by the end of this year.

I really think you're underestimating Spider-Man 2. It's easily the biggest PS5 exclusive yet and it's Spider-Man, people will be buying this game for the entire life cycle of the PS5 as long as it's good so it'd be shocking if it sold less than the first one which reached 20m in just a couple years.

Ps5 is at 42m on the front page of this site, as of August 26th. No way it sells anything like 18m from then until the end of this year.



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Norion on 04 October 2023
peachbuggy said:
Norion said:

The PS4 was at 53.5 million by the end of 2016 and the PS5 is about to overtake it so as long as it doesn't have a weaker holiday season than the PS4 did that year for whatever reason it will indeed be close to 60m by the end of this year.

I really think you're underestimating Spider-Man 2. It's easily the biggest PS5 exclusive yet and it's Spider-Man, people will be buying this game for the entire life cycle of the PS5 as long as it's good so it'd be shocking if it sold less than the first one which reached 20m in just a couple years.

Ps5 is at 42m on the front page of this site, as of August 26th. No way it sells anything like 18m from then until the end of this year.

"Close" to 60m isn't the same as 60m. If it continues its current trajectory the next few months it'll be somewhat ahead of the PS4 by the end of December at about 56m or so which is close to 60m.



PotentHerbs on 05 October 2023

Just for a point of reference, SpiderMan 2018 + Miles Morales sold 33M+ lifetime as of August 2022. That puts SpiderMan 2018 comfortably over 20M+ lifetime on PlayStation 4 before the PC release. IIRC, SpiderMan sold just under 2M on PC by the end of Sony's FY22, I think it could leg it out to 30M as well, if not finishing slightly under it. 

First week: 

SpiderMan 2: 6M - 7M 
Mario Wonder: 8M - 12M 

Lifetime: 

SpiderMan 2: 35M - 40M+ 
Mario Wonder: 45M - 50M+

Just to note, my prediction for SpiderMan 2's lifetime sales factors in a PC release.

Last edited by PotentHerbs - on 05 October 2023

Cassiel on 05 October 2023

Super Mario wonder will sell 2-3 times as much just on Switch




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kazuyamishima on 05 October 2023

Wonder will sell more than Spider-Man 2.

And the PS5 will sell more than the Switch in October.



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Squall_Leonhart on 05 October 2023

Super Mario Bros Wonder will sell more, and thats a given. Huge franchise with a history of selling well with almost every iteration, alongside an install base 3x that of the PS5.

Spider-Man 2 will still sell extremely well but not at the same pace as Wonder to start with!



peachbuggy on 05 October 2023
Norion said:
peachbuggy said:

Ps5 is at 42m on the front page of this site, as of August 26th. No way it sells anything like 18m from then until the end of this year.

"Close" to 60m isn't the same as 60m. If it continues its current trajectory the next few months it'll be somewhat ahead of the PS4 by the end of December at about 56m or so which is close to 60m.

56m would be the absolute maximum to expect, imo



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

fedfed on 05 October 2023

Exclusive aligned Super Mario Wonder it will sell more on Switch vs Spiderman PS5 and also all considered Super Mario Wonder will be much more profitable between the 2 in the long run.



Switch!!!

Norion on 05 October 2023
peachbuggy said:
Norion said:

"Close" to 60m isn't the same as 60m. If it continues its current trajectory the next few months it'll be somewhat ahead of the PS4 by the end of December at about 56m or so which is close to 60m.

56m would be the absolute maximum to expect, imo

It would mean the PS5 would sell over 25m this year though with how well it's sold so far combined with this being its first holiday season without limited stock I think it has a good shot at reaching that. It'll sell at least 23m this year so either way it won't be a big difference if it doesn't quite get there.



archbrix on 05 October 2023

I expect Spider-Man 2 basically being bundled for free eventually whereas Super Mario Bros Wonder probably won't. At some point, Sony would rather use their hit as a vessel to sell more consoles as opposed to Nintendo wanting to make as much as possible off of the full price of the game. But despite that, Spidey won't match Mario's sales.