I feel you are jumping the gun quite spectacularly.

Very interesting Europe is the region I would have thought that spiderman would dominate the most in. It'll be very difficult for spiderman to keep it's lead worldwide if it falls behind in europe.

Avtually, Spider-Man games do much better in America than Europe. 

you have to remember a huge amount of sales from spiderman 2 will come from bundles which are not counted in this chart and in the NPD charts as well. Mario wonder already had a 800k lead in japan when both spiderman 2 and mario wonder sales were announced and spiderman 2 was will ahead by 700-800k

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/247891/spanish-sw-amp-hw-sales-week-49-2023/1/

Mario Wonder-20,000
Spider Man-under 7,000

Proof that Mario will sell ~3x as much as Spider Man!

Bundle sales were included in Europe and the rest of the world. 

Please take a look at the leg below

Mario Wonder without launch week sales in Japan: 595k vs Spider-man 2: 30k. In Europe, even without digital sales and bundles, Mario Wonder is destroying Spider-man 2 effortlessly and has a much better leg than Spidey 2. NPD sales were definitely not painting the real picture of Wonder, with a higher ASP for Spider-man 2 and a digital sales exclusion for Mario Wonder.

You will be shocked when, at the end of 2023, Mario Wonder is going to sell around 15 million units and Spider-man 2 around 10 million units. Mario Wonder is going to sell around 3 million units in Japan alone this quarter.

Yeah, Circana is revenue based and the fact that Nintendo doesn't release digital sales makes it more difficult to gauge. Anecdotally, Wonder has been ahead of Spider-Man 2 on Amazon here in the US pretty much consistently regarding the individual games, and only recently, fell behind the PS5 bundle. Which puts things into perspective: Spider-Man will benefit heavily from bundles - Mario most likely will not - and Spidey's price will come down far quicker than Wonder's as well.

And even with all of that in mind, Wonder will still sell more in the end.

Source that spiderman bundles were included and lol.

Ok, you need to cool it a bit and stop with the hyperbole. It's probably going to be pretty close by the end of the year. Although who even knows when we'll get an update on spider man again.