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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 125 84.46%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.54%
 
Total:148
zeldaring said:

 Wow Nice. if anyone wants an expertise opinion on predictions PM me.

What was your specific prediction and how does circana results make that prediction spot on?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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That spider man would beat mario wonder and mario won't do these insane numbers of 30-40 million. I predicted 20 million and it's looking pretty spot on.



zeldaring said:

That spider man would beat mario wonder and mario won't do these insane numbers of 30-40 million. I predicted 20 million and it's looking pretty spot on.

So you’re going to have to spell it out for me because I’m not understanding how revenue of games that cost different amounts in a single country during a single month where one includes digital and the other doesn’t points to you being “spot on” about global, lifetime unit sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/avatar-frontiers-of-pandora-debuts-at-no5-uk-boxed-charts

Clearly Mario Wonder will double global, lifetime Spider-Man 2 sales based on this single week of boxed sales in the UK!



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/avatar-frontiers-of-pandora-debuts-at-no5-uk-boxed-charts

Clearly Mario Wonder will double global, lifetime Spider-Man 2 sales based on this single week of boxed sales in the UK!

Don't forget Japan!

03./02. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) - 61.794 / 1.150.511 <80-100%> (-2%)

30./25. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man 2 # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2023.10.20} (¥8.164) - 2.221 / 107.617 <60-80%> (-23%)

10x sales, guess Super Mario Wonder only does 22m tops while Spiderman is 2.2m.



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Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/avatar-frontiers-of-pandora-debuts-at-no5-uk-boxed-charts

Clearly Mario Wonder will double global, lifetime Spider-Man 2 sales based on this single week of boxed sales in the UK!

Don't forget Japan!

03./02. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) - 61.794 / 1.150.511 <80-100%> (-2%)

30./25. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man 2 # (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2023.10.20} (¥8.164) - 2.221 / 107.617 <60-80%> (-23%)

10x sales, guess Super Mario Wonder only does 22m tops while Spiderman is 2.2m.

You guys do realize that spiderman 2 was beating mario wonder even with the huge launch in Japan. And with spider man 2 winning easily in npd and not even counting bundles the separation will only get bigger this holiday.

Last edited by zeldaring - on 14 December 2023

I think we are over complicating zeldaring's point. Many thought wonder would dominate spider 2. He disagreed and was mocked. At the end of the day he was right. Spider is holding its own.



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Chrkeller said:

I think we are over complicating zeldaring's point. Many thought wonder would dominate spider 2. He disagreed and was mocked. At the end of the day he was right. Spider is holding its own.

Many people thought Spiderman would put up a fight, some even saying Spiderman would win at first and then Super Mario Wonder would win in the end, some even advocating for it to be a super close race. This guy has posted many times declaring victory and calling himself a genius as if one or 2 months of NPD tracked sales is all that matters. The only thing that really matters is shipment data Spiderman vs Super Mario Wonder, each and every quarter.



Chrkeller said:

I think we are over complicating zeldaring's point. Many thought wonder would dominate spider 2. He disagreed and was mocked. At the end of the day he was right. Spider is holding its own.

There were even claims of Super Mario doing in the first month or at least until the end of the year more than SM2 could do lifetime.

So yes extremes from both side were very off.

I still hold that SM2 will do better in the short term but will lose the long run even if for a small amount as I don't see it crossing 30M but can see Mario doing it.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Chrkeller said:

I think we are over complicating zeldaring's point. Many thought wonder would dominate spider 2. He disagreed and was mocked. At the end of the day he was right. Spider is holding its own.

No, it’s more like Zeldaring is once again using flawed logic, hyperbole and jumping to conclusions.

There is nothing about Circana results that point to either game winning or what either game will sell lifetime. Its revenue of games that cost different amounts in a single country in a single month where one game has digital included and the other doesn’t, it literally gives no useful data for this thread so in no way, shape or form does this make him “spot on”. 

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 14 December 2023

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.