By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - Phil Spencer: "Nintendo future exists off their own hardware"

VAMatt said:
Soundwave said:

Sony is toast in that scenario too probably ... they're not going to win any kind streaming service war, not when they have to compete against companies not just 1 Microsoft, but Apple, Netflix and others. Their whole business model and success is rooted in basically the same physical Playstation hardware model from 1995. That won't work for them if you change the game entirely. 

Possibly. But, Sony is a more diversified technology and entertainment business. I think they have a leg up on Nintendo in that respect.  Also, because they are somewhat diversified, I think they make a less attractive acquisition target for many companies.  I don't think Microsoft wants to buy in to the audio and video equipment industry, for example.  They could of course spin that stuff out, but that complicates the deal.  

Definitely Sony is under threat from a takeover of the gaming business by tech megacorps. Something about their business is going to change substantially. Maybe it's being acquired, maybe it's doing some acquiring. I don't know. I just think they're in a different position than Nintendo, which could lead to a different end result for the company. 

Sony is not really under threat of a take over because no one would really want to spend to buy them. They're a bloated 80s/90s company that basically just rides the Playstation brand using tactics from 1995. Unlike Nintendo, where MS, Apple, and probably a half dozen other companies would be interested. That's why you don't really hear much chatter about a Sony merger or buy out. 

Sony are sort of a one trick pony at this point, they know how to play the game of winning the traditional stationary console race, but their streaming service attempts have gone no where, they haven't had any huge consumer electronics hit since the Playstation line and like the Walkman in the 80s? They know how to pay off 3rd party developers and take advantage of Nintendo/MS making mistakes with home consoles which is basically the same thing they've done since 1995 or so, but they don't really have any playbook for doing anything else. They're like the kid on the playground who beats everyone at basketball, but ask them to play football or some other sport and they get exposed fairly quickly. 

Even in the dedicated hardware field, what happened when they tried to take Nintendo on in the portable space and all the same things from the console space didn't translate 1:1? They lost, and then lost badly. 

Their gaming IPs are just not that valuable either. Compare what Super Mario Bros. did as a movie box office wise compared to the Uncharted and Gran Turismo movies. Not even close. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 22 September 2023

Around the Network
Soundwave said:

Sony is not really under threat of a take over because no one would really want to spend to buy them. They're a bloated 80s/90s company that basically just rides the Playstation brand using tactics from 1995. Unlike Nintendo, where MS, Apple, and probably a half dozen other companies would be interested. That's why you don't really hear much chatter about a Sony merger or buy out. 

Sony are sort of a one trick pony at this point, they know how to play the game of winning the traditional stationary console race, but their streaming service attempts have gone no where, they haven't had any huge consumer electronics hit since the Playstation line and like the Walkman in the 80s? They know how to pay off 3rd party developers and take advantage of Nintendo/MS making mistakes with home consoles which is basically the same thing they've done since 1995 or so, but they don't really have any playbook for doing anything else. They're like the kid on the playground who beats everyone at basketball, but ask them to play football or some other sport and they get exposed fairly quickly. 

Even in the dedicated hardware field, what happened when they tried to take Nintendo on in the portable space and all the same things from the console space didn't translate 1:1? They lost, and then lost badly. 

Their gaming IPs are just not that valuable either. Compare what Super Mario Bros. did as a movie box office wise compared to the Uncharted and Gran Turismo movies. Not even close. 

You hear more chatter about a Nintendo buyout than a Sony one because Nintendo is the easier company to acquire and integrate. If Sony was willing to sell their gaming unit, you can bet there would be a ton of interested suitors willing to pay the premium, and Super Mario Bros success at the box office would have no bearing on that. Your whole post is misguided because you still think of Sony as a major player in the consumer electronics space when they have pivoted into being an entertainment conglomerate more than a decade ago.

The Sony-Zee merger is valued around 10B for instance and puts Sony in position to dominate a massive market like India. Sony Television has Netflix, Amazon, Disney and Paramount bidding against each other for their content, which includes Breaking Bad, Better Call Saul, The Boys, The Last of Us, Twisted Metal, The Wheel of Time, Seinfield, Cobra Kai, among many other popular shows. Sony Music is one of the largest publishers in their industry, and they also own Aniplex, the leading anime subscription in an untapped market, who also published one of the most popular mobile games of all time, Fate Grand Order. 



PotentHerbs said:
Soundwave said:

Sony is not really under threat of a take over because no one would really want to spend to buy them. They're a bloated 80s/90s company that basically just rides the Playstation brand using tactics from 1995. Unlike Nintendo, where MS, Apple, and probably a half dozen other companies would be interested. That's why you don't really hear much chatter about a Sony merger or buy out. 

Sony are sort of a one trick pony at this point, they know how to play the game of winning the traditional stationary console race, but their streaming service attempts have gone no where, they haven't had any huge consumer electronics hit since the Playstation line and like the Walkman in the 80s? They know how to pay off 3rd party developers and take advantage of Nintendo/MS making mistakes with home consoles which is basically the same thing they've done since 1995 or so, but they don't really have any playbook for doing anything else. They're like the kid on the playground who beats everyone at basketball, but ask them to play football or some other sport and they get exposed fairly quickly. 

Even in the dedicated hardware field, what happened when they tried to take Nintendo on in the portable space and all the same things from the console space didn't translate 1:1? They lost, and then lost badly. 

Their gaming IPs are just not that valuable either. Compare what Super Mario Bros. did as a movie box office wise compared to the Uncharted and Gran Turismo movies. Not even close. 

You hear more chatter about a Nintendo buyout than a Sony one because Nintendo is the easier company to acquire and integrate. If Sony was willing to sell their gaming unit, you can bet there would be a ton of interested suitors willing to pay the premium, and Super Mario Bros success at the box office would have no bearing on that. Your whole post is misguided because you still think of Sony as a major player in the consumer electronics space when they have pivoted into being an entertainment conglomerate more than a decade ago.

The Sony-Zee merger is valued around 10B for instance and puts Sony in position to dominate a massive market like India. Sony Television has Netflix, Amazon, Disney and Paramount bidding against each other for their content, which includes Breaking Bad, Better Call Saul, The Boys, The Last of Us, Twisted Metal, The Wheel of Time, Seinfield, Cobra Kai, among many other popular shows. Sony Music is one of the largest publishers in their industry, and they also own Aniplex, the leading anime subscription in an untapped market, who also published one of the most popular mobile games of all time, Fate Grand Order. 

By integrate you mean they have a bunch of crap baggage that other companies wouldn't care for. 

I think potential suitors like an Apple also know they're a bit of a mirage with their gaming division because it basically really is driven by 3rd party content and that doesn't come with the Playstation brand per se. If you were to get into a war with like Microsoft or Amazon, that 3rd party support can crumble and fall apart because those developers can be acquired as Microsoft just did with Activision-Blizzard. 

How much value does the Playstation brand really have when its divorced from the traditional gaming market and we're into a new kind of streaming war business? Can't really money hat a publisher that's owned by your competition. 

The interesting thing is, Sony might actually have an "in" with a partner one wouldn't expect. That being Nintendo. The reason why is two-fold basically, one if we are headed towards some kind of industry "consolidation" of some kind, it's pretty clear Microsoft is going to be on one side of it, and probably another massive conglomerate on the other side (Apple?). So where does that leave Sony and Nintendo? Well in that scenario if they were to team up, as unthinkable as it seems in a traditional gaming market, they are also the two companies that most benefit from the industry staying (well) traditional. Microsoft is not as successful so they have no qualms about just burning the whole thing down and making it something else. 

The other reasons is Nintendo is a bit of a diva and is likely going to be very hard for anyone to court into a relationship. Sony is the only one of these companies that is Japanese, and I think for Nintendo that is important. And maybe more than that, Sony isn't big enough to buy Nintendo. If Nintendo were to get into a relationship with a Microsoft or Apple, they could eventually just turn around and try to buy them. But Sony can't really do that, they are barely 2x the market cap that Nintendo is. And past that Sony has experience working in partnerships like this before, the Blu-Ray format, DVD format, etc. etc. 

Also past that pretty much everyone that was involved in the 90s Playstation-SNES fall out is retired from both companies outside of Miyamoto, so it becomes a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" type of thing. 



PotentHerbs said:
Soundwave said:

Sony is not really under threat of a take over because no one would really want to spend to buy them. They're a bloated 80s/90s company that basically just rides the Playstation brand using tactics from 1995. Unlike Nintendo, where MS, Apple, and probably a half dozen other companies would be interested. That's why you don't really hear much chatter about a Sony merger or buy out. 

Sony are sort of a one trick pony at this point, they know how to play the game of winning the traditional stationary console race, but their streaming service attempts have gone no where, they haven't had any huge consumer electronics hit since the Playstation line and like the Walkman in the 80s? They know how to pay off 3rd party developers and take advantage of Nintendo/MS making mistakes with home consoles which is basically the same thing they've done since 1995 or so, but they don't really have any playbook for doing anything else. They're like the kid on the playground who beats everyone at basketball, but ask them to play football or some other sport and they get exposed fairly quickly. 

Even in the dedicated hardware field, what happened when they tried to take Nintendo on in the portable space and all the same things from the console space didn't translate 1:1? They lost, and then lost badly. 

Their gaming IPs are just not that valuable either. Compare what Super Mario Bros. did as a movie box office wise compared to the Uncharted and Gran Turismo movies. Not even close. 

You hear more chatter about a Nintendo buyout than a Sony one because Nintendo is the easier company to acquire and integrate. If Sony was willing to sell their gaming unit, you can bet there would be a ton of interested suitors willing to pay the premium, and Super Mario Bros success at the box office would have no bearing on that. Your whole post is misguided because you still think of Sony as a major player in the consumer electronics space when they have pivoted into being an entertainment conglomerate more than a decade ago.

The Sony-Zee merger is valued around 10B for instance and puts Sony in position to dominate a massive market like India. Sony Television has Netflix, Amazon, Disney and Paramount bidding against each other for their content, which includes Breaking Bad, Better Call Saul, The Boys, The Last of Us, Twisted Metal, The Wheel of Time, Seinfield, Cobra Kai, among many other popular shows. Sony Music is one of the largest publishers in their industry, and they also own Aniplex, the leading anime subscription in an untapped market, who also published one of the most popular mobile games of all time, Fate Grand Order. 

Sony's gaming division without a doubt is extremely valuable.  Last, God, uncharted, Spiderman, etc.  HBO's show of last was very popular.



i7-13700k

Vengeance 32 gb

RTX 4090 Ventus 3x E OC

Switch OLED

Soundwave said:

By integrate you mean they have a bunch of crap baggage that other companies wouldn't care for. 

I think potential suitors like an Apple also know they're a bit of a mirage with their gaming division because it basically really is driven by 3rd party content and that doesn't come with the Playstation brand per se. If you were to get into a war with like Microsoft or Amazon, that 3rd party support can crumble and fall apart because those developers can be acquired as Microsoft just did with Activision-Blizzard. 

How much value does the Playstation brand really have when its divorced from the traditional gaming market and we're into a new kind of streaming war business? Can't really money hat a publisher that's owned by your competition. 

The interesting thing is, Sony might actually have an "in" with a partner one wouldn't expect. That being Nintendo. The reason why is two-fold basically, one if we are headed towards some kind of industry "consolidation" of some kind, it's pretty clear Microsoft is going to be on one side of it, and probably another massive conglomerate on the other side (Apple?). So where does that leave Sony and Nintendo? Well in that scenario if they were to team up, as unthinkable as it seems in a traditional gaming market, they are also the two companies that most benefit from the industry staying (well) traditional. Microsoft is not as successful so they have no qualms about just burning the whole thing down and making it something else. 

The other reasons is Nintendo is a bit of a diva and is likely going to be very hard for anyone to court into a relationship. Sony is the only one of these companies that is Japanese, and I think for Nintendo that is important. And maybe more than that, Sony isn't big enough to buy Nintendo. If Nintendo were to get into a relationship with a Microsoft or Apple, they could eventually just turn around and try to buy them. But Sony can't really do that, they are barely 2x the market cap that Nintendo is. And past that Sony has experience working in partnerships like this before, the Blu-Ray format, DVD format, etc. etc. 

Also past that pretty much everyone that was involved in the 90s Playstation-SNES fall out is retired from both companies outside of Miyamoto, so it becomes a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" type of thing. 

Like I said, there would be a lot of suitors if Sony were to sell, despite being a "bloated" company as you put it.

Hearing no rumors about a potential Sony buyout doesn't mean anything. If anything, based on past sentiment, its a good thing for the state of Sony's business that we hear no rumblings about them needing to sell. MGM went for 8.5B and you think Sony Pictures would fetch no interest in the open market? Sony is considering spinning off their financial arm, in order to make larger M&A moves, but that shouldn't be possible according to you. 

And I'm sorry, thinking PlayStation has no value outside of the traditional console model is quite deluded lol. Sony had over 8M+ subscribers for PlayStation Plus Premium, with Ghost of Tsushima and SpiderMan Miles Morales leading the way for engagement metrics, while God of War and The Last of Us were the most played legacy franchises. Their IP's are still growing, in terms of units sold and mindshare, as we've seen with God of War Ragnarok selling over 10M units in a little over 2 months, on top of moving millions of units of hardware during the holiday season. Sony's first party unit sales account for 10 - 15% of overall game sales yearly, which is significant when you consider the amount of third party releases, since their first party output represents literally 1% of the platform releases for the year. Their PC approach has been successful, despite delayed releases capping unit sales potential, with Sony projecting their revenue from PC doubling/tripling in a few years. Not to mention live service stuff like MLB, a yearly sports game with MTX, and Destiny 2, with another expansion next year, plus other promising projects from Bungie. 

When it comes to the future of the industry, I think Sony and Nintendo will have a lot of time to prepare for their business models shifting, that when it comes time to pivot, they'll be ready. People already overestimated the impact GamePass will have coming into the generation. Sony and Nintendo will have their walled garden business model in tact for Switch 2/PlayStation 6. That means they'll further grow their IP's, further entrench their audience into their digital ecosystem, while making billions every year in profit, for at least another decade. Depending on what they do, that just may be too much time for other giants, including Microsoft, to really shift market share away from both of them. Its similar to the impact Zenimax would of had if Microsoft bought them during the start of last generation, compared to buying them at the eve of this generation, with the variance being the tremendous growth of Sony's first party strength, as well as Nintendo further cultivating their IP to be the Disney of gaming. 



Around the Network
PotentHerbs said:
Soundwave said:

By integrate you mean they have a bunch of crap baggage that other companies wouldn't care for. 

I think potential suitors like an Apple also know they're a bit of a mirage with their gaming division because it basically really is driven by 3rd party content and that doesn't come with the Playstation brand per se. If you were to get into a war with like Microsoft or Amazon, that 3rd party support can crumble and fall apart because those developers can be acquired as Microsoft just did with Activision-Blizzard. 

How much value does the Playstation brand really have when its divorced from the traditional gaming market and we're into a new kind of streaming war business? Can't really money hat a publisher that's owned by your competition. 

The interesting thing is, Sony might actually have an "in" with a partner one wouldn't expect. That being Nintendo. The reason why is two-fold basically, one if we are headed towards some kind of industry "consolidation" of some kind, it's pretty clear Microsoft is going to be on one side of it, and probably another massive conglomerate on the other side (Apple?). So where does that leave Sony and Nintendo? Well in that scenario if they were to team up, as unthinkable as it seems in a traditional gaming market, they are also the two companies that most benefit from the industry staying (well) traditional. Microsoft is not as successful so they have no qualms about just burning the whole thing down and making it something else. 

The other reasons is Nintendo is a bit of a diva and is likely going to be very hard for anyone to court into a relationship. Sony is the only one of these companies that is Japanese, and I think for Nintendo that is important. And maybe more than that, Sony isn't big enough to buy Nintendo. If Nintendo were to get into a relationship with a Microsoft or Apple, they could eventually just turn around and try to buy them. But Sony can't really do that, they are barely 2x the market cap that Nintendo is. And past that Sony has experience working in partnerships like this before, the Blu-Ray format, DVD format, etc. etc. 

Also past that pretty much everyone that was involved in the 90s Playstation-SNES fall out is retired from both companies outside of Miyamoto, so it becomes a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" type of thing. 

Like I said, there would be a lot of suitors if Sony were to sell, despite being a "bloated" company as you put it.

Hearing no rumors about a potential Sony buyout doesn't mean anything. If anything, based on past sentiment, its a good thing for the state of Sony's business that we hear no rumblings about them needing to sell. MGM went for 8.5B and you think Sony Pictures would fetch no interest in the open market? Sony is considering spinning off their financial arm, in order to make larger M&A moves, but that shouldn't be possible according to you. 

And I'm sorry, thinking PlayStation has no value outside of the traditional console model is quite deluded lol. Sony had over 8M+ subscribers for PlayStation Plus Premium, with Ghost of Tsushima and SpiderMan Miles Morales leading the way for engagement metrics, while God of War and The Last of Us were the most played legacy franchises. Their IP's are still growing, in terms of units sold and mindshare, as we've seen with God of War Ragnarok selling over 10M units in a little over 2 months, on top of moving millions of units of hardware during the holiday season. Sony's first party unit sales account for 10 - 15% of overall game sales yearly, which is significant when you consider the amount of third party releases, since their first party output represents literally 1% of the platform releases for the year. Their PC approach has been successful, despite delayed releases capping unit sales potential, with Sony projecting their revenue from PC doubling/tripling in a few years. Not to mention live service stuff like MLB, a yearly sports game with MTX, and Destiny 2, with another expansion next year, plus other promising projects from Bungie. 

When it comes to the future of the industry, I think Sony and Nintendo will have a lot of time to prepare for their business models shifting, that when it comes time to pivot, they'll be ready. People already overestimated the impact GamePass will have coming into the generation. Sony and Nintendo will have their walled garden business model in tact for Switch 2/PlayStation 6. That means they'll further grow their IP's, further entrench their audience into their digital ecosystem, while making billions every year in profit, for at least another decade. Depending on what they do, that just may be too much time for other giants, including Microsoft, to really shift market share away from both of them. Its similar to the impact Zenimax would of had if Microsoft bought them during the start of last generation, compared to buying them at the eve of this generation, with the variance being the tremendous growth of Sony's first party strength, as well as Nintendo further cultivating their IP to be the Disney of gaming. 

There's a ton of value in Sony's gaming business.  And there is a 100% chance that many of the tech megacorps would be interested in buying it, if Sony decided to sell it.  Some of them would likely be interested in the other entertainment businesses as well. What the tech megacorps (probably) don't want to buy is the consumer electronics, finance, and the rest of the non-entertainment businesses.  And, because the company is in those businesses, they are of less interest as a takeover target.  

Regardless of any of that, the gaming industry is likely going to be dominated by those tech megacorps within a decade or so.  It is going to be very difficult for Sony and Nintendo to continue to exist in their current forms against that backdrop.  So, consolidation seems fairly likely in both cases over the next decade. 



VAMatt said:

There's a ton of value in Sony's gaming business.  And there is a 100% chance that many of the tech megacorps would be interested in buying it, if Sony decided to sell it.  Some of them would likely be interested in the other entertainment businesses as well. What the tech megacorps (probably) don't want to buy is the consumer electronics, finance, and the rest of the non-entertainment businesses.  And, because the company is in those businesses, they are of less interest as a takeover target.  

Regardless of any of that, the gaming industry is likely going to be dominated by those tech megacorps within a decade or so.  It is going to be very difficult for Sony and Nintendo to continue to exist in their current forms against that backdrop.  So, consolidation seems fairly likely in both cases over the next decade. 

Aside from Apple, who could utilize many of Sony's entertainment arms as well as their IS&S division, I do agree that big tech wouldn't be interested in Sony as a whole because of all the non entertainment parts that would need to be integrated/spun off. 

I feel like Nintendo will be the least impacted in terms of consolidation, since they have the strongest IP's with lots of utility, and are at the point they could survive solely on first party, but technology may be their biggest hurdle. Sony is the opposite, they will need to be more defensive/proactive when it comes to larger M&A activity, but they are much more forward thinking than Nintendo when it comes to technology. 



Traditional console/PC gaming will continue to dominate subscription services and cloud gaming for at least 15 years (truth be told, I don't know if those ever will replace traditional gaming). Sony and especially Nintendo will both be fine and won't find the need to merge or be acquired by anyone.

The only corporation that poses a threat to Sony is Microsoft, which after ABK's acquisition probably won't be able to acquire any major publisher, let alone a platform holder like Nintendo or Valve. If other giants like Apple and Amazon start acquiring publishers, the odds are they'd continue supporting Playstation, Nintendo, and Steam for a while.

I do feel that Apple is more than capable of making a successful "console/PC ecosystem" that can beat Playstation within a few years (if acquisitions + exclusivity is their game), but idk if they're willing to take the risks and initial losses which could be massive and cause the closures of multiple studios. On the other hand, if they keep supporting the established players, their new system won't take off, and they will exist primarily as a 3rd party software giant, which Sony would be very happy about. Actually, I can see Apple skipping the Xbox ecosystem, because Microsoft would be their direct rival who -after this leak- is very clearly planning to monopolize highend gaming. Apple can get Take Two and EA and skip Xbox/GamePass to promote their own subscription service, while supporting Playstation for those traditional software sales (as well as hurting Xbox console sales). And just like this, Sony wins without even trying.

If the other giants join this game, Microsoft may stand to lose more than Sony.

Last edited by Kyuu - on 23 September 2023

VAMatt said:
Soundwave said:

Sony is toast in that scenario too probably ... they're not going to win any kind streaming service war, not when they have to compete against companies not just 1 Microsoft, but Apple, Netflix and others. Their whole business model and success is rooted in basically the same physical Playstation hardware model from 1995. That won't work for them if you change the game entirely. 

Possibly. But, Sony is a more diversified technology and entertainment business. I think they have a leg up on Nintendo in that respect.  Also, because they are somewhat diversified, I think they make a less attractive acquisition target for many companies.  I don't think Microsoft wants to buy in to the audio and video equipment industry, for example.  They could of course spin that stuff out, but that complicates the deal.  

Definitely Sony is under threat from a takeover of the gaming business by tech megacorps. Something about their business is going to change substantially. Maybe it's being acquired, maybe it's doing some acquiring. I don't know. I just think they're in a different position than Nintendo, which could lead to a different end result for the company. 

What both Sony and Nintendo have is content that people want to play, streaming is only a delivery service, ask  google how easy it is even when you have a large streaming network, in Sony's case they have a streaming service plus even Phil has stated recently that streaming hasn't evolved to where they thought it would be.  



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot

KLXVER said:
PotentHerbs said:

Why would Sony do less AAA if they merged with Nintendo? 

Because why spend millions upon millions of dollars on games when games like Super Mario, Mario Kart, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Zelda, Smash Bros. etc. basically outsell all Sony games. Would not make sense business wise. Im sure they would still make some at first, but they would probably bank more on the cheaper games that sell more for the same price as their AAA games.

By your logic Nintendo should never make Metroid, Fire Emblem, Donkey Kong, Pickmin, Paper Mario, Splatoon or any of their "mid tier" ips. They should focus only in 30M sellers games. Many Playstation IPs are Very successful and able to reach close, or surpass, the 20M line, like GoW, Last of Us or Horizon, they are all much bigger than mid tier Nintendo IPs.

Last edited by Manlytears - on 24 September 2023