Digital includes everything including games that are digital only. For Sonys first party stuff I think I recall from the insomniac leak that a few years ago it was more or less 50/50. So physical isn't going away anytime soon if its still central to Sonys biggest releases. Its safe for another generation at least.

It depends on when the PS6 launches and how much it costs at launch, but I am going with the 115M to 125M range with lifetime sales similar to PS4. If PS6 is $600 or higher and launches in 2028 or later it has a good shot of topping 125M.

To be fair, data from Sony shows the digital % hovered in the low 60s for most quarters around the time corresponding to those Insomniac leaks.

It's now around the high 70s in just 3 years.

Well according to the leaks from Tom Henderson, Sony is firm on the stance that they are doing a PS6 disc drive add on much like the PS5 currently has. This is done because of the success sales thus far of the add on drive. They seem very happy with the results. So if PS6 launches in 2027 or even if it's delayed a year or so to 2028 and we all know they support their home consoles for 10 years or more then physical media will still be an option on Playstation until 2037 or 2038 at least. So you can put your fake worries away. 

I've moved up to 125m-135m. I feel like 2026 sales will be mostly the same as 2025 sales due to GTA 6 and I now believe we won't see the PS6 until 2028, so that's why I  see it selling more than what I initially thought. I could see it passing 130m.

GTA 6 is (almost) Playstation exclusive for 1~2 year + PS6 delayed to 2028~2029.

It can reach 130M, imho.... at least 120M sold.

Hard to say with everything that's been going on. But I predict (sell through):

2026: 16.5 million
2027: 14 million
2028: 8 million
2029: 3 million
2030+: 1 million

Total: 132 million.

But it really depends on prices, production, and when PS6 is launching. COVID, wars, tariffs, NAND and RAM crisis... this generation can't catch a break and it makes you wonder what's next...

Tracking just behind PS4 but won't be replaced for a couple years longer than it took the PS4 to be replaced, as there is no real need to keep replacing systems for minor upgrades.

So yeah should definitely hit 130m. Hardware sales will probably be pretty slow by the time it is replaced, but it's all about selling that software with well over 100m user base.

SONY's target for fiscal year 2025 was 15 million units.

Q1 : 2.5

Q2 : 3.9

Q3 : 8.0

Q4 : ?

But now they will exceed their forecast, likely reaching 16.5 to 17 million by 31 March.

We can say it's a very good results desepite the natural decline.

It’s a 125-130 million selling console or maybe even more.

My breakdown and prediction;

2020 - 4.4m. Launch and Covid

2021 - 12.7m. Mostly unable to meet demand

2022 - 13.9m. Similar conditions to 2021

2023 - 21.4m. Recovery, demand being meet

2024 - 19.6m. Price increase

2025 - 17.4m. Stabilized demand and pricing

2026 - 14.5m. GTA6 maintains momentum for PS5

2027 - 11.5m. Price drops. GTA6 1st full year

2028 - 7.5m. PS6 announced. 1st party begin to drop bombs to send off PS5 and build confidence for PS6

2029 - 3.5m. PS6 launch, folks begin to move on

10 year/lifetime tally - 125m-132m.

With this prediction, and due to unique circumstances in this gen, Sony takes full advantage of the 10 year life cycle and the PS5 gets pushed to the absolute end of life with no next gen option on the market to disrupt it. A first for the brand.