2028 is the right time to launch it, but Sony might panic at the thought of the next Xbox having a headstart (X360 flashbacks).

Knowing that Microsoft is going wide and doesn't want to sell consoles at huge losses, Sony's got nothing to worry about, but you never know how the decision maker will react.

For years now I had been consistent in my belief that the PS5 would not manage to outsell the PS4, but with the current condition of Xbox, now I want to change my vote: 115 - 130m. I still don't think it will beat the PS4 in Japan, but it doesn't need to in that region for the victory over its predecessor worldwide.

My guess is 120M +/-

Sony panic reacting about a new Xbox seems very hard to happen nowdays.

130-135m with rockstar magic

The most likley launchtime for PS6 is late 2027.
1.) Sony THEMSELFES said, that the PS5 already is past its first half of its lifecycle. That was about a year ago in february 2024.

https://www.ign.com/articles/ps5-entering-the-latter-stage-of-its-life-cycle-sony-says

2.) Sony in fact said that PS6 will also release when PS5 is still doing fine- what could be a notice of a PS3/PS4 like lifecycle at least for hardware production.

3.) If MS really launches a new Xbox next year, they have no other choice. Also Switch 2 releases this year.
2028 is suicide anything later than that ain't gonna happen. Mark my words!

Sony could be like Nintendo and just not care.
Honestly, I think you over estimate the amount of people that would jump ship for a faster console.

Developers would still choose to prioritise makeing sure games look great and run great on the PS5, as thats where the majority of consumers are at.
Theoritcally the xbox series x, is like ~16% faster than the PS5 (in practis (real world), its much less) ... and it does not matter to consumers.
Oftentimes games run better on the PS5, simply because its easier to program or optimise for (or because devs, spend more time doing so for it).

Lets say Xbox has a new console, thats 1,000$ and twice as fast as the base PS5.
You would get slightly more games running at 4k, and more heavy use of Raytraceing.

You would see them try to push graphics and raytraceing as "the reason" to upgrade.
Meanwhile, devs on PS5 would show the same game, running slightly less resolution, without raytraceing... and looking almost the same.
At that point all Playstation needs to do is give the PS5 a price cut. 

You would watch digital foundry videos of a Xbox Series X2 vs PS5pro... and the differnce would minimal.

Its too early to start a new gen, you need the tech to be ready and make a new gen worthwhile.
Trust me, consumers won't go for more powerfull hardware if the majority of its use, will just be for raytracing stuff.

Explain why 2028 would be suicide and how the next Xbox launching in 2026 poses a threat. This brings back memories.

Quite easy. MS would get a headstart of 2 years (Xbox 360 anyone?) Nintendo will have 3 years. Remember what happened with PS3? This is a risc Sony will not want! Also if  Switch really runs as good as many people predicting it could be a record breaking launch! Add in the fact that the MS/ Activision contract includes all Activision games for Nintendo systems for 10 years but only COD for Playstation, does bring some riscs. Nintendo is basically guaranteed to get all Activision games for 10 years. It could be that Sony gets more but the contract only saves COD for them. If the Switch 2 becomes THE mobile device for 3rd parties AND the Nintendo games (MK, Smash, Zelda, Pokémon, Metroid, Kirby...)+ former Xbox exclusives like Halo, Forza, Gears... AND has physical games (PS6 will likley be digital only) that won't be nothing and it must be taken into account by Sony. Just saying "Nintendo is no competition" like some vgchartz users shout is no solution! The industry sees them in competition. Also consider the fact that Sony ports their games to PC and Nintendo does not. Xbox is a lot smaller than it used to be but its far from a nobody! Sony cannot just do what they like and get an easy win! We saw this in gen 7, we somehow see it in Gen 9 (vs Switch) and YES i am comparing Switch directly with PS5 and Xbox! See what i mean?

@Kyuu

A full next gen system (PS or Xbox) will be a good chunk more powerfull than last gen. If Sony/ MS decides to make a next gen only experience, this gens graphics will be a childs birthday. You cannot rely on that everything gets cross gen releases.

PS5pro is basically that.... its a recently launched hardware... and it shows how much more powerfull and the price of such a unit, its currently able to be.

Is that what you want?
A Series X2 (new gen xbox) , thats basically just xbox version of a PS5pro ?
Comeing in around 700$?

Do you want it much more powerfull? are you willing to take on a 1000$ price point or something?
Just imagine it.

Here is this 1,000$ xbox, that only plays 3rd party and xbox games.... and mostly its extra power is used for raytracing.
Here is a 400$ PS5 digital, that runs slightly lower resolution, no raytracing but games look almost the same. It plays Playstation games, xbox games, and 3rd party.

Which do you think will do better in the market?

Be honest.
Its a stupid idea... you need the new tech to be ready first.

I think you wait, until you can do this:

You would want atleast a AMD cpu with 3D vcache, and atleast RDNA 4 (9000 series amd cards tech) inside.
You would want to secure GDDR7 for it.... and maybe aim higher than 16gb total, so like maybe 24gb (with a 384bit bus)?
(cost saveing wise, maybe its smarter to do another gen, with 16gb and 256bit bus... they *need* to add like 4gb of ram for OS ect then though imo)

You would want to make use of FSR4..... so it becomes a default, requirement for any game on the console.
(just like nintendo hopefully make DLSS mandatory for all Switch2 games)


And get it under 700$.

If your team of engineers, think its not feasiable to do so.... its just a no go, to do a new console.
If you kickstart thing early, blow your load on the wrong things.... you just set yourself behinde, when the other party launches with the right parts.