Now that the FTC has lost their hopes of stopping the deal from closing while waiting for their appeal to be heard, I just don't see that how this deal doesn't close in the next few days. So, I predict that either they settle with the UK in the next couple of days, or Microsoft just goes ahead and closes the deal anyway and deals with the legal wranglings in the UK afterward.

I also think that the CMA knows this, so they're going to settle so as to avoid looking powerless.

I have no particular information on which to base this. It's just based on common sense and my observations of how things have been going with respect to the Microsoft purchase of Activision Blizzard King.

What does everyone think? Am I way off base?

Possibly sure. It seems like the deal is going to pass one way or another whether it's the 18th or gets delayed a bit past that.

What would be funny is if the 18th passes without the deal closing and then Activision demands more money for the sale in a new agreement.

I do wonder when are we going to start getting solid game announcements tied to the buyout...

There's a few more hurdles left.

- There's still a TRO on Microsoft acquiring Activision-Blizzard in America which lasts until today, at midnight PST.

- The FTC is appealing their PI loss (very unlikely to succeed) but they're also appealing for an emergency stay to extend the TRO beyond today.

- It's unlikely that the FTC will get their emergency stay but the courts could give them a temporary one which lasts until next week, before deciding on the full emergency stay. The reason that may happen is because the FTC has left things so late that they only requested an emergency stay last night and the appeals court has until tonight to decide if Microsoft is intending on closing on Monday.

However, the appeals court doesn't have to respond tonight if they don't want to, it's FTCs fault that they've left it this late but courts sometimes go with caution on these things, if they don't know the details of the case, they may just issue a short emergency stay while they investigate it some more.

- The CMA still has a block on Microsoft acquiring ABK as far as we know, despite the CMA and Microsoft coming back together to work on a deal and the CMA's final issue has been delayed to late August until of July 18th but they aim to get it done ASAP.

Your scenario isn't entirely unlikely, if the FTC loses their emergency stay and if the CMA allows Microsoft to ignore their block then Microsoft could close on Monday, that is a possibility if the CMA and Microsoft are close to a deal anyway and it's just signing the documents now. Microsoft could also choose to ignore CMA's block if FTC loses their emergency stay (which would come with consequences) and may be a risky move now that they're back at the negotiation table with the CMA.

First things first, we need to see if the FTC gets their emergency stay, which is unlikely, but a shorter one is possible while they investigate handing out a longer one. The FTC will almost certainly lose their appeal to the PI but if they win their emergency stay it could delay things by weeks, if not months.

Well, the 18th date isn't a "drop dead" date but just a date wherein Activision can beyond that point, pull out of the deal, for any reason they want to, whenever they want to, and still pocket the $3bn.

Not really in ABK's interest to do that right now, they'd lose more value from the stock plummeting from the current $91 a share than they'd gain from Microsoft's $3bn. They can come to a sort of "gentleman's agreement" to just keep going for the next few weeks without re-negotiating a new acquisition fee and breakup fee.

If it goes beyond that though, like months, then yeah, they'll likely re-negotiate new fees.

I think it's more likely that a new deal would value Activision lower than the existing proposed purchase price, rather than higher.  Tech stocks have bounced back a good bit over the last few months. But, the general environment around tech is much less favorable than it was at the time this deal was made. Also, any proposed purchaser, such as Microsoft or another big tech player, can now see that the deal will be difficult to get across the finish line. So that would likely be reflected in any offer that another buyer might make.

So, yeah , that would be funny. It ain't going to happen though, at least not in the near term. 

I think it would take a small miracle to close next week.

I'm leaning more towards September/October.

Want to bet? $10 to the digital game store of The winners choice. I get the next 30 days, you get the rest of August, September, and October. If it hasn't closed by then, it's a push.  

September/October only seems likely if the Court of Appeals grants the Emergency Stay.

CMA will be wrapped up August 29th at the latest, CMA says it will come sooner than that and are working for "ASAP"