I'd argue that its only propitious to invest in the gaming industry now because its the only industry left to be massively consolidated. That would mean Microsoft was the first to capitalize on this propitious time, and ultimately, the inception point of massive consolidation. Granted, you could argue that it was always going to happen regardless of what Microsoft did, but in reality they are the ones responsible for triggering the arms race. 

Comparing consolidation back then to the present is not an apt comparison. The fact that two major platform holders have made some of their biggest transactions ever, as well as the many billion dollar acquisitions on top of that, significantly separates the level of M&A activity now compared to the 1970's or 1990's, making any comparison or discussion about market impact null and void. 

I only like that it's the possibility of getting rid of Activision CEO Bobby Kotick. It was either that or hope that he gets exposed as being somehow even worse than we thought he was and get a life sentence.

" but in reality they are the ones responsible for triggering the arms race. "

But you have no proof of this effect, only a strong will that it is. Embracer and Tencent were gobbling up smaller players in large numbers prior to MS making their first new round of acquisition in 2018. There never was a point where no transactions were occurring either. 

The market has doubled in the last 5 years and MS output has very little to do whit this, it's not like the market is silly to the point where MS needs to be the one signaling to everyone else it is ready for acquisition. 

The ABK transaction is only the biggest to happen in a time where more of it happens, simple as that.

Also, there are much comparisons to be drawn from prior periods of mass consolidations, while no transactions were made on a scale of this one there were no actors with this kind of valuation either very far from it and there were also far fewer of them. Meaning individual transactions while not as impressive would have been much more impactful than their equivalent today.

The thing is even if we are in a mass consolidation, attaching the certainty of bad outcomes to this is still only based, like I said before, on just feelings and beliefs. 

All the growth is in mobile. Hence I believe this deal is to get an inroad into mobile gaming, using popular IPs and Gamepass to gain traction there. xCloud quality is plenty for mobile streaming but games will also be geared to be more mobile friendly to make it happen.

Yes, that's very the main component of the deal IMO, people view $70B and I think they unconsciously associate it with the console market due to AB's history before they added K.

During the FTC trial, it was stated by an analyst (not in the actual case but one following it if I recall correctly ) that King was bought for $10B and that ABK has grown the value of K like 5x since. This might have been an exaggeration but, the way I understand things King makes more than half of the $70B valuation. Also of the rest of the valuation, another 50% or so of CoD's actual value is also tied to Mobile which I believe is separate from kings value. That means the overwhelming majority of that $70B is tied to mobile. Someone can do the math and proper research, and this is only a wild guess, the nonmobile value part of the transaction might only be in the teens.

MS have barely any presence in the mobile space making all the valuation tied to mobile at 0 risk of creating an SLC, moreover, they want to challenge an established duopoly in this space which means competition and clear benefits for consumers.

That said the graph I have shown mentions Digital so I don't know if it excludes physical copy and create a skewed representation for mobile since mobile is by default 100% digital. Yet, it does not really matter since we know video game companies non-mobile included made records profits due to covid and it looks to have a lingering effect on the market still creating a propitious context for investment which was the point of the prior post.

And who do you think runs those courts...

Yeah, we're never going to agree. You sound like the type of person that wouldn't be opposed to slavery making a come back. Don't know whether it's because you're rich and happily exploit people, or because you're used to bending over for your corporate overlords, but plenty of us like actually having rights even if you don't.

Consolidation typically happens in a stagnant / shrinking market though. Profits in console gaming revenue aren't soaring, hence game studios and publishers are up for sale...

ABK was losing revenue when they started the deal https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ATVI/activision-blizzard/gross-profit Yes, the pandemic infused extra money into the entertainment sector, but that effect is done.


XBox Mau has been growing a lot but that's muddled with needing a XBox account for things like Minecraft on other devices. MS gaming revenue fell a bit as well but it's all hard to tell with the way stuff is reported.

I don't know if MS challenging the mobile players has any clear benefits for us, by which I mean gamers playing on TV / monitor. All those lovely franchises ABK is sitting on are more likely to get mobile spin offs instead of a revival for PC/console. Just like Sony is suddenly heavily investing in GAAS at the detriment of their regular release cycle, so I can see MS shifting focus to the more profitable mobile space, taking popular IPs there.

Are you slow or something?

You made a long ass post on how great the corporatr culture is at MS and how it will run off on AB. 

I pointers out that there will be no change in corporate culture because there will be layoffs at AB. MS is not interested in the people at AB, they are only after the brand names owned by AB. 

Oh boy, you are the definition of naive

~User Warned -Ryuu96

Report: Microsoft Considering Selling UK Cloud Gaming Rights to Allow Activision Deal to Close - News

Microsoft and Activision Blizzard are considering giving up some control over cloud-gaming in the UK to appease the the UK regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with Bloomberg.

It is reported Microsoft might be willing to sell its cloud gaming rights in the UK to a telecommunications, gaming or internet-based computing company. One person said a private equity company might be interested.

The sources said Microsoft and Activision Blizzard think it is possible to close the deal before the July 18 deadline.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) in the UK in April blocked Microsoft's Activision Blizzard acquisition, however, Microsoft and Activision Blizzard has appealed the decision. The hearings for the appeal were set to start on July 24, however, the CMA and Microsoft have decided to pause litigation to work out a new deal.

CMA media officer Billy Proudlock yesterday said discussions with Microsoft and Activision Blizzard are "at an early stage" and the two companies are considering how the transaction could be modified. 

The reason the CMA blocked the deal in April was due to concerns with cloud gaming. The CMA is concerned the "deal would alter the future of the fast-growing cloud gaming market, leading to reduced innovation and less choice for UK gamers over the years to come."

The CMA states at the time "Microsoft has a strong position in cloud gaming services and the evidence available to the CMA showed that Microsoft would find it commercially beneficial to make Activision’s games exclusive to its own cloud gaming service."

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/457835/report-microsoft-considering-selling-uk-cloud-gaming-rights-to-allow-activision-deal-to-close/

Yeah.... not sure why the CMA is entertaining this now at this stage, I'd say the lobbied politicians pressure must have played a big role, this is definitely not an offer the CMA can't refuse. 

Most gamers only think about how they will get even more "free" games on Game Pass. That's it. Very shortsighted.