Dude is tripling down

Back in 2020 though...

There is always a tweet or something by Trump that contradicts Trump.

With Kamala Harris having another day of reasonably strong polling, we're now officially in the zone where we can call the race a toss-up. She has a 54 percent chance of winning Michigan, a 50 percent chance of winning Wisconsin, a 47 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania, and a 45 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

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Harris!!! What a turnaround, from Biden's cratering numbers to completely reversing it in a matter of weeks, she hasn't even announced her VP or had the DNC yet, she isn't even the official nominee yet and Trump's numbers barely moved after almost being assassinated. Still! We have months to go! Don't get too arrogant, keep focused, don't let up, Trump could still win but all momentum is with Harris.

I'll note again that polls typically use existing known voters which leaves all a lot of the new energy from the left but these poll trends are interesting.

Rasmussen Reports.  This pollster has a known lean to the right.  If it moves into a consistent +Harris, it's over.

Fox - No explanation needed. But it will be interesting to see their next poll as both of these were conducted prior to Biden's withdrawal.

Just FYI, Fox News polls tend to be quite good. They are done by Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, who have an A rating by Nate Silver and a 2.8/3 on 538. They may even be a little more Dem leaning than the average poll. 

Harris VP mystery: Signs point to Shapiro

Details how Josh Shapiro is canceling a lot of important appointments in the lead up to Harris’s VP announcement and the strategic position of PA.

In another world, I would have gladly backed Kelly as VP. I think he’s phenomenal, I proudly voted for him and will do so again in 2028. But we need all hands in the Senate. Kyrsten Sinema is stepping down, and the race between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake is too close for comfort, despite the fact that Lake is an embarrassment to Arizona and is nothing more than another TV personality whose wheels came off of her bus. Kelly is right where we need him, even though I like Gallego and would definitely support him as Kelly’s interim replacement (and hopefully permanent replacement in 2026) if things go sour with Lake. 

JD Vance is such a piece of shit.

Anyway, Harris is officially the Democratic nominee.

“I am so proud to confirm that Vice President Harris has earned more than a majority of votes from all convention delegates and will be the nominee of the Democratic Party following the close of voting on Monday,” Harrison said on the call.

FWIW Pete also cancelled events, it's cause the final interviews are this weekend.