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Jimbo1337 said:

The shooter donated $15 dollars to the Progressive Turnout Project on January 20, 2021. He made this donation fourteen days after January 6th, which was a danger to democracy. The timing of this donation indicates how this person felt about January 6th.

Means very little without more information. 

Jimbo1337 said:

He is part of an age group that is statistically more ideologically progressive. I am pointing out his age because we aren't talking about a 60 year old person where, statistically speaking, is more conservative. 

Not really. 
The age group is statistically more progressive because of young women. Young men on the other hand are as conservative as ever.

Young Women become more liberal, men are stable

Young men more conservative than boomers

Jimbo1337 said:

When you add up his age, his donation to the Progressive Turnout Project, didn't like Trump (tried to assassinate him), and the fact that this was a closed primary, indicates that the shooter was likely a radical progressive democrat. Radical because he shot at a former president. Progressive because he didn't donate to a republican anti-trump group, but rather a progressive project.

You're wrong about the demographics.

The donation might very well be meaningless. People can change politics over a few years. Donald Trump was supposedly a Democrat for a long time. And he switched when he was an older person, which is a lot less common than it is for a 17 year old.  

Jimbo1337 said:

People make donations to things they support. They don't just blindly make a donation because they feel like it. If that were the case, that would destroy Bernie Sanders entire campaign message, which I would point out was run very well. Bernie would constantly point out that the average campaign contribution was $27, which suggested the large base of support from your average every-day American citizen. 

This all started because of what Ryuu suggested:
Non political - WRONG. He shot at a former president

Mass shooting - WRONG. Media says this was an assassination attempt. 

My narrative is created based on indicators that I previously laid out. Ryuu's narrative is based on manufactured information and then attempts to tie this back to previous mass shootings. 

People also overwhelmingly register to vote in the party they support. Yet that doesn't seem to matter to you.

Shooting at a president can have non political motivations. Hinckley was reportedly seeking fame to impress actress Jodie Foster, with whom he had a fixation after watching her in Martin Scorsese's 1976 film Taxi Driver. He was found not guilty by reason of insanity and remained under institutional psychiatric care for over three decades

This guy for instance had a bunch of different ideas, attacking two different political people on opposite sides of the aisle, also had the idea of hijacking a plane; because he wanted attention. 

I feel like arguing the difference between a mass shooting and an assassination attempt that hit a few other people, is splitting hairs over the dumbest things. 

Your narrative is based on picking and choosing how to interpret the 3 facts that we have about this person. 

Last edited by the-pi-guy - on 14 July 2024

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Jimbo1337 said:
Ryuu96 said:

The shooter donated $15 dollars to the Progressive Turnout Project on January 20, 2021. He made this donation fourteen days after January 6th, which was a danger to democracy. The timing of this donation indicates how this person felt about January 6th.

Many Republicans were unhappy about January 6th. 

The shooter was a registered republican in the state of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is 1 out of 10 states that is a closed primary. That means only voters who are registered to a major party may participate in its primary election. (Registering as a Republican to vote against the MAGA movement).

Or...He could be a Republican voting against the MAGA movement, like thousands of Nikki Haley's voters, or Republicans in this very forum who are voting Democrat because they don't like the MAGA movement, or Republicans currently in congress who have said they won't vote Donald Trump or Republicans who have left Congress who have publicly condemned Donald Trump.

He is part of an age group that is statistically more ideologically progressive. I am pointing out his age because we aren't talking about a 60 year old person where, statistically speaking, is more conservative. 

Statistics aren't a fact on a individual, meaning just because "statistically" his age group is more progressive, doesn't mean it's a fact that he is. Also Trump's been gaining quite a bit with the youth voter according to recent polls, it's not cut and dry.

It's possible that he was a Democrat...Then switched to Republican, not sure why that is so hard for you to believe. I don't think anyone is really saying he was always Republican, I'm certainly not, I'm saying it's plausible he switched to being a Republican.

When you add up his age, his donation to the Progressive Turnout Project, didn't like Trump (tried to assassinate him), and the fact that this was a closed primary, indicates that the shooter was likely a radical progressive democrat. Radical because he shot at a former president. Progressive because he didn't donate to a republican anti-trump group, but rather a progressive project.

Still not a fact.

I see you left out the Lincoln Project comment because it undermines the suggestion or plausible case that the shooter was an anti-trump republican. 

I left it out because Sundin addressed it but nice try

I see you addressed nothing in response LOL.



Jimbo1337 said:
sundin13 said:

"he would have made that $15 small dollar donation to the Lincoln Project" is a hell of an assumption. Sure, maybe he would have? Or maybe he saw an ad for one on TV, or his mom mentioned it to him, or he saw a post on reddit. I don't know why he chose that specific thing to donate to. Neither do you...

People make donations to things they support. They don't just blindly make a donation because they feel like it. If that were the case, that would destroy Bernie Sanders entire campaign message, which I would point out was run very well. Bernie would constantly point out that the average campaign contribution was $27, which suggested the large base of support from your average every-day American citizen. 

This all started because of what Ryuu suggested:
Non political - WRONG. He shot at a former president

Mass shooting - WRONG. Media says this was an assassination attempt. 

My narrative is created based on indicators that I previously laid out. Ryuu's narrative is based on manufactured information and then attempts to tie this back to previous mass shootings. 

Christ, okay. Lmao. Okay, I'll be more clear for you, I'll needlessly expand instead of simply saying a few words which basically sum up my point anyway but I need to be SUUUUUUPER specific for you, apparently, and only you.

I do not believe this dude decided to assassinate Donald J Trump because he's an angry Democrat who believes he can stop Donald J Trump. I believe the most likely scenario right now is he is yet another American shooter who decided to go out in a blaze of glory and make a name for himself, send a fuck you to the world after feeling like the world has let him down, another American slipped through the cracks of an awful mental health crisis, therefore I do not believe there is a political motivation even if Donald J Trump was a former President. That just makes the target more "juicy" for the shooter. It would make him go down in history. He wanted the attention and he got it. I apologise for saying it is a mass shooting because 3 people didn't die. He simply carelessly shot into a crowded area, attempted to kill one person, killed another person and critically injured 2 more, I don't know what you want me to call that, "multiple-people almost killed, one-dead shooting?" A bit of a mouthful but there you go.



Jimbo1337 said:
sundin13 said:

"he would have made that $15 small dollar donation to the Lincoln Project" is a hell of an assumption. Sure, maybe he would have? Or maybe he saw an ad for one on TV, or his mom mentioned it to him, or he saw a post on reddit. I don't know why he chose that specific thing to donate to. Neither do you...

People make donations to things they support. They don't just blindly make a donation because they feel like it. If that were the case, that would destroy Bernie Sanders entire campaign message, which I would point out was run very well. Bernie would constantly point out that the average campaign contribution was $27, which suggested the large base of support from your average every-day American citizen. 

This all started because of what Ryuu suggested:
Non political - WRONG. He shot at a former president

Mass shooting - WRONG. Media says this was an assassination attempt. 

My narrative is created based on indicators that I previously laid out. Ryuu's narrative is based on manufactured information and then attempts to tie this back to previous mass shootings. 

I mean, I've definitely donated money to things I didn't have a monumental attachment to. It's $15. It's not that serious. 

As for Ryuu's thoughts, they are mostly just his opinions. John Hinckley Jr tried to assassinate Reagan not for overtly political reasons, but because he wanted to impress Jodie Foster. We don't have enough information one way or the other to determine a motive in this case. It could have been a fame and opportunity thing (aka, motives similar to many mass shooters) and not a political thing. I don't know. Again, neither do you.

EDIT: Lol, pi guy beat me to the Hinckley anecdote...



the-pi-guy said:

Donald Trump was supposedly a Democrat for a long time. And he switched when he was an older person, which is a lot less common than it is for a 17 year old.  

Nah, Trump ain't a Republican, he donated to Democrats once, people can't change their stance.

Seriously though yeah, young men are becoming more right-wing, it's women who are more left-wing.

I partly blame people like Andrew Tate though he is taking them to an extreme and creating a whole generation of angry incels.



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I mean yeah, I've said multiple times my opinion is just a theory but it's the one I believe is more plausible with the facts we have right now.

We still don't have enough information to say with upmost certainty what his motivation was.

Neither theory is a fact right now.

It is a fact he was a registered Republican though.

It is not a fact he was a Democrat posing as a Republican to vote against them.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 July 2024

Jimbo1337 said:
Zkuq said:

He is part of an age group that is statistically more ideologically progressive. I am pointing out his age because we aren't talking about a 60 year old person where, statistically speaking, is more conservative. 

This was mentioned in a link before but I was curious about your feelings here so I took a screenshot of the graph. Seems like this dude's age group is most likely to be moderate or conservative. Does this change your analysis?



...

sundin13 said:
Jimbo1337 said:

People make donations to things they support. They don't just blindly make a donation because they feel like it. If that were the case, that would destroy Bernie Sanders entire campaign message, which I would point out was run very well. Bernie would constantly point out that the average campaign contribution was $27, which suggested the large base of support from your average every-day American citizen. 

This all started because of what Ryuu suggested:
Non political - WRONG. He shot at a former president

Mass shooting - WRONG. Media says this was an assassination attempt. 

My narrative is created based on indicators that I previously laid out. Ryuu's narrative is based on manufactured information and then attempts to tie this back to previous mass shootings. 

I mean, I've definitely donated money to things I didn't have a monumental attachment to. It's $15. It's not that serious. 

As for Ryuu's thoughts, they are mostly just his opinions. John Hinckley Jr tried to assassinate Reagan not for overtly political reasons, but because he wanted to impress Jodie Foster. We don't have enough information one way or the other to determine a motive in this case. It could have been a fame and opportunity thing (aka, motives similar to many mass shooters) and not a political thing. I don't know. Again, neither do you.

EDIT: Lol, pi guy beat me to the Hinckley anecdote...

Thank you for pointing out that Ryuu's posts are just opinions and not based on facts.



Jimbo1337 said:
sundin13 said:

I mean, I've definitely donated money to things I didn't have a monumental attachment to. It's $15. It's not that serious. 

As for Ryuu's thoughts, they are mostly just his opinions. John Hinckley Jr tried to assassinate Reagan not for overtly political reasons, but because he wanted to impress Jodie Foster. We don't have enough information one way or the other to determine a motive in this case. It could have been a fame and opportunity thing (aka, motives similar to many mass shooters) and not a political thing. I don't know. Again, neither do you.

EDIT: Lol, pi guy beat me to the Hinckley anecdote...

Thank you for pointing out that Ryuu's posts are just opinions and not based on facts.

Brother, I labelled it right from the start as a "theory" and a "likely scenario" and "plausible" and even in the very first reply say I could be wrong because I was never saying my whole theory was a fact, I was saying based on the facts, I find my theory/scenario to be more plausible/likely, that isn't me saying "BASED ON THE FACTS I'M 100% CORRECT AND THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED"

===

"instead find the "typical mass shooter" scenario to be the most plausible with the facts we have right now."

"Maybe I'm wrong but with the evidence we have right now, I'd argue that your scenario is far more implausible."

US Politics |OT|

"Everything else is theory and I find my theory holds more water than yours with the facts that we have."

US Politics |OT|

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 14 July 2024

Jimbo1337 said:
sundin13 said:

I mean, I've definitely donated money to things I didn't have a monumental attachment to. It's $15. It's not that serious. 

As for Ryuu's thoughts, they are mostly just his opinions. John Hinckley Jr tried to assassinate Reagan not for overtly political reasons, but because he wanted to impress Jodie Foster. We don't have enough information one way or the other to determine a motive in this case. It could have been a fame and opportunity thing (aka, motives similar to many mass shooters) and not a political thing. I don't know. Again, neither do you.

EDIT: Lol, pi guy beat me to the Hinckley anecdote...

Thank you for pointing out that Ryuu's posts are just opinions and not based on facts.

Opinions can be based on facts. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive.

In my opinion, you are the one who keeps taking things too far with your assertions, not Ryuu...