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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 17.1m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 17.1m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 30 million 72 7.06%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 34 3.33%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 61 5.98%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 143 14.02%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 151 14.80%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 247 24.22%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 192 18.82%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 58 5.69%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 30 2.94%
 
More than 110 million 32 3.14%
 
Total:1,020

Since Microsoft does not provide shipment numbers, VGC's estimates are the next best thing for global numbers. The September figure was chosen to bring Xbox in line with the timeframe used by both Nintendo and Sony.

Just like with the recent PS5 poll, the ranges for the current Xbox in the poll remain the same. The low end may be a bit ridiculous by now, but it would be unfair to not serve the rampant hatred for Xbox here. Or rather, there's no good reason yet to increase the high end either, nor is there much of a point in condensing the ranges this early.

Below are the results from the previous two polls, the first one from October 2020, the second one from November 2021. A small improvement over the Xbox One was the most popular option both times, but the second time around the higher options gained notably at the expense of the lower options.

Your lifetime sales expectations for Xbox Series X|S?
Less than 30 million 101 8.40%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 85 7.07%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 126 10.47%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 224 18.62%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 255 21.20%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 186 15.46%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 130 10.81%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 23 1.91%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 27 2.24%
 
More than 110 million 46 3.82%
 
1,203
VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations?
Less than 30 million 47 5.84%
 
30.0 - 39.9 million 28 3.48%
 
40.0 - 49.9 million 34 4.22%
 
50.0 - 59.9 million 107 13.29%
 
60.0 - 69.9 million 188 23.35%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 171 21.24%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 153 19.01%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 33 4.10%
 
100.0 - 110.0 million 22 2.73%
 
More than 110 million 22 2.73%
 
805



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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I'm thinking it'll get around 360 numbers by the end of the generation. Maaaaaaaybe barely surpass the 360 to become MS's best-selling console ever.

It'll really depend on how quickly first-party output can ramp up in 2023. Game Pass is awesome and there's been some great Day 1 third-party games, but first-party is where the console will gain huge strides. There's a lot already confirmed, barring any further delays, in the first half of 2023. So, if the big names can get released in that timeframe, then at E3 2023, we'll find out which major titles will release Holiday 2023 to drive more console sales and really shape how the remainder of the generation for Xbox will be. I'm hoping for Hellblade 2, Avowed, and Contraband to be for late 2023.



88



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Forgive me for sounding like a broken record but I'll say it again because a certain penis erased my post history:

It may not be quantifiable because I think Series S will stop being mandated in the middle of or late in the generation. Whether we count the S and X as the same console will be a controversial topic in and of itself.

If developing for Series S continues to be a requirement throughout the generation, and Microsoft regularly sell it for $150 (or $200 with a free game) in the 2nd half of the generation while also significantly improving Series X production, I predict an optimistic 65-70 million units in this scenario.



who are the duds who voted for less than 30 Million? 



steve

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Around 70m is my guess. I can't really see it ending up a lot lower or higher than that.

Last edited by Norion - on 22 November 2022

It’s already doing pretty well with the only major games being Halo and Forza. I have to imagine that sales will increase even further when Starfield, Hellblade, Fable etc hit so I see it in the 80s maybe ending up around 90M.



Based on my reasoning here, and my running theory on PlayStation and Xbox totals, 40% of 175-185 million = 70-74 million for Xbox Series.

So I'll tick the 70-79.9 option in the poll, but I'm obviously expecting it to be at the lower end of that poll option's range.



It is currently tracking well above both 360 and Xbox One launch aligned (see below) in spite of shortages, and this gen is shaping up to be a long one, 8 or 9 years. I think 80m+ is a given, with 90m+ or even 100m+ being possible. Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6 will move alot of consoles due to how popular BGS is, as will CoD once it becomes day one Gamepass starting in 2026. Xbox's first party in general is shaping up to be much better than it has ever been, and exclusives move consoles. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 28 November 2022

Well, at least we have a more solid evidence that this generation will be a long one. There is a chance of both PS5 and Xbox Series getting portable versions like SteamDeck later in the gen, especially if Series S remains a requirement. I'm bumping up my B scenario prediction from 65-70 to 72-77 million. More if the unlikely handheld is released.