Yeah, nearly every game that is above Hogwarts Legacy now has a boosted player count from either being on Gamepass, GWG, F2P weekends, free giveaways, or just being a F2P game to start with. Pretty darn impressive how far Hogwarts has made it up the rankings in just a week or so as a $70-80 game. If Hogwarts ever makes it to Gamepass (will take at least a year for that to happen as Sony marketing deals prevent a game from hitting Gamepass for 1 year), it will definitely make it to near the top of this list I think. Even without a Gamepass boost, 300k+ TA users lifetime seems likely to me, after it gets some price cuts and big digital sale discounts. The fact that it is still pulling in about 4k new TA users per day is quite impressive. And this game is very casual friendly, so you know it's getting alot of non-TA user sales, I've heard stories of non-gamers buying a console just to live out their dreams of being a Hogwarts student, or gamers convincing their non-gamer significant others to play Hogwarts Legacy as their first ever game.

One of the most interesting comparisons is Hogwarts vs Elden Ring. They are two of the most comparable games here, as neither of them has a boosted player count from Gamepass/GWG/Free Play weekends. Elden Ring is at 166k TA after nearly a year, Hogwarts is at 93k after about a week. It's also worth noting that Hogwarts is Xbox Series only, and thus limited to the ~21m Xbox Series install base at present, while Elden Ring is on the combined ~51m + ~21m install base of Xbox One + Xbox Series. 

Elden Ring was at ~40k about a week after launch.

https://web.archive.org/web/20220302163902/https://www.trueachievements.com/game/Elden-Ring/achievements

However (!), TA gained like 300k members since then so even that isn't fully comparable.

I'm having a great time playing Hogwarts Legacy. It's no robust rpg like Witcher or Kingdom Come: Deliverance, but it reminds me of playing Fable for the first time. A good kind of nostalgia.

Strange. Guessing they're just covering their ass no matter what, spent the last year complaining about why the deal shouldn't go ahead so they didn't accept a contract but now we're at the end, they might as well accept it just in case the deal does go through, either way, deal is blocked, or Sony gets a contract, Sony wins, Lol.

Originally asking for a perpetual license is hilarious.

Also Microsoft flew out to Japan and Sony refused to meet with them

The industry with licenses like streaming services work with a payout and bonusses for some milestones

Indie game gets initially 100.000$(something that the devs will be shocked at) but then bonusses come in...

For every 10.000 players that download it you get another sum 200$-1000$ 

For every 10.000 hours played another sum and so on....

With ofcourse a maximum sum.

Interesting comments from the two guys on ResetEra, Idas specialising in antitrust and the other is an American lawyer.

KnowinStuff Said:

There is a reasonable prospect that this deal will have drawn sufficient regulator attention to exclusivity deals that some of those will draw antitrust scrutiny. The many statements in this thread to the contrary notwithstanding, exclusivity agreements, in certain contexts, absolutely can be violations of antitrust and monopolistic practices laws in major jurisdictions.

In the United States, for example, if the dominant player in a market leverages their position as the dominant player to make it harder for others to compete, in a manner that is harmful to consumers, that is an antitrust violation unless they enjoy OPEC style sovereign immunity, or some other sort of exceptional carveout. This doesn't require a merger to be a violation

Idas Said: 

I think that this paragraph from MS’ opposition to Sony in the FTC case (from the document that was published today) could be potentially interesting:

Among other things, Microsoft is aware that PlayStation requires many third-party publishers to agree to exclusivity provisions, including preventing the publishers from putting their games on Xbox's multi-game subscription service. But Microsoft does not fully understand the extent of SIE's arrangements or how they impact the industry's competitiveness.

If the deal fails, could MS go after Sony‘s exclusive agreements from an antitrust perspective? After all, not every exclusivity provision is legal, specially if you are the dominant market power.

Back in August 2022, the first time that in this case we heard about those agreements through CADE in Brazil, I already shared how those exclusivity clauses cloud be problematic for Sony.

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Idas Thoughts on Acquisitions After

ABK is the biggest third party target that MS could try to acquire. If they succeed, and excluding platforms holders, everything else could be possible.

But I think that if they fail, lots of potential targets get automatically excluded. Any publisher with an IP that has: a long history as a franchise, lots of success with each new entry and relevant network effects, could be very problematic.

So, no Take-Two (GTA, NBK2), Electronic Arts (FIFA, Apex) or Epic (Fortnite). But I think that that could also affect Ubisoft (Ass Creed), Square Enix (Final Fantasy), Capcom (Resident Evil), Krafton (PUBG) and a few more. All those IPs are Top 15 worldwide from a revenue perspective.

Add to that that from now on cloud gaming is going to be a relevant market and MS is already the dominant power there. So, any new acquisition that adds relevant content and could potentially be foreclosed, can be problematic.

There would lots of medium and small targets for MS yet. But if the deal fails I think that lots of the big ones wouldn’t be a realistic option for MS.

Idas Thoughts on Sony Meeting Microsoft

Realistically speaking, the deal has a 20-25% chance of going through (some deal trackers are even less optimistic, giving it a 10-15%). If it goes through, it will be with extremely generous behavioural remedies in favor of third parties or with divestments (something very different to the the original plan, then).

That means that Sony is very close to get what they wished for: the deal being blocked or abandoned.

Therefore, if Sony is willing to accept an agreement NOW, there has to be a very good reason after how negative they have been about it.

Lol Sony getting their fake exclusives blocked would be hilarious. Couldn't happen to a more deserving company.

Philly heard you Shika!

^^Where tf is Ys and Trails at.

SMT, persona spinoffs etc re e e e e e e