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shikamaru317 said:
Barozi said:

That's way too much IMO. Those games are either new IPs or in case of Sniper Elite not necessarily mainstream. The publishers couldn't expect those games to sell 428k units at full price on a single console so I see no reason that MS dishes out that much money. Btw. $30m is almost enough to completely fund those games and in turn make them full Xbox exclusive.

You could be right, $30m may be a bit too high of an estimate, but if GOTG was $5-10m 4 months after release, I'd guess at least $15-20m for some of these  bigger day one Gamepass games. Sniper Elite is also bigger than you think, the first 8 games in the series sold a combined 20m copies (Sniper Elite 1-4 and Zombie Army 1-4, so the 20m figure was before Sniper Elite 5), which averages out to 2.5m sales per game in the series, but the later games sold more than the earlier games did. I sure hope that Xbox compensated them well for Sniper Elite 5, as the day one Gamepass majorly hurt it's Xbox sales, in the UK 92% of it's first week retail copies were on PS4/PS5, compared to just 8% on Xbox One and Xbox Series X. A normal game sells about twice that many retail copies on Xbox in the UK, so day one Gamepass effectively halved it's launch sales on Xbox.

The industry with licenses like streaming services work with a payout and bonusses for some milestones

Indie game gets initially 100.000$(something that the devs will be shocked at) but then bonusses come in...

For every 10.000 players that download it you get another sum 200$-1000$ 

For every 10.000 hours played another sum and so on....

With ofcourse a maximum sum.