If I had to choose one game to sacrifice launch near GTA 6, I would pick Halo CE Remake.

From a cost-marketing-projection expectation, if Halo is simply a CE Remake, then I really doubt it matters all that much, I doubt they'd be planning on huge multiplayer support for it, its development budget will be far less than E-Day, Fable and Forza Horizon 6. It will likely have a big launch on account of it being Halo and a CE Remake, but it's not going to need to do gangbusters. If GTA 6 cleaves off its multiplayer legs then oh well, I doubt it was projected to be a huge multiplayer project supported for years, especially since they still have Infinite and MCC, Lol.

But I do not believe for a second that Halo CE Remake will be ready for Early 2026 and I also don't believe they would launch it then even if it was because they're still going to make a big deal out of it, they will reveal it at the June Showcase and they'll launch it on the 25th Anniversary of Xbox for the marketing alone, it will be hype.

And so for that reason, I would change my pick to Forza Horizon 6.

Fable is a franchise which peaked at 5m sales IIRC, it will have a group of hardcore Fable fans like myself but will still need to sell itself to a lot more people, to those people it will be something entirely new, it won't have many direct links to previous Fables either being a reboot. It will also be a lengthy game but they'll likely be a lot of people dropping it as soon as GTA launches, the issue is getting them to return to a non-GaaS project, Lol.

Gears popularity has notably declined in recent history, I think it will lose the most against GTA 6. Folk will finish the Campaign maybe but I could see the multiplayer being dropped like a brick when GTA 6 launches aside from the hardcore who already make Gears MP a bit more difficult to get into than most other MP games, Lol. Then when people return after they get their fill of GTA the hardcore who never left will be fucking slaughtering them even harder, Lmao. It's a high skill ceiling game Imo.

Forza Horizon is the biggest IP there, not lifetime maybe but definitely currently. Hell, I think an argument could be made that Forza Horizon is currently bigger than all 3 combined, Lol. Forza Horizon is on another level right now and I believe it would be hurt the least by GTA 6. It is a game which is supported for years and has already proven to have incredible legs, it still consistently reaches top sale charts years after release (even before the PS release) and top player charts, if its legs are hurt by GTA 6, I can easily see them recovering later.

It can get away more than any of the others with a short marketing campaign. You could EASILY reveal Forza Horizon 6 at TGA's, have a deep dive at the January Direct and then release it in March and it will still do bonkers numbers, Forza Horizon doesn't need a lengthy marketing campaign and never has received one either, every single Forza Horizon has been released within 5 months of its reveal (usually 4). But the question would only be if it's ready development wise, Lol.

If Forza Horizon CAN launch in early 2026, it SHOULD. Then punt Fable to September, Gears to October and Halo to November.

Outer Worlds 2 certainly looks to be a nice step above the first game, sure, but I don't really agree that it should be more than 60 bucks. In fact, I'd argue that Obsidian's own statements, about how they look to purposefully keep budgets down and focus more on making mid tier games (in scope) rather flies in the face of MS then turning around and charging 80 bucks for them. 

We got games like Clair Obscur, and Mafia Old Country releasing for 50 bucks...it doesn't affect me, cus I'm just gonna play it through GP, but Obsidian to me very much feels like a developer that could thrive, and perhaps belongs in that 50 dollar region. I know for damn sure I wouldn't pay 70 or 80 bucks for their games. 

A lot of the marketing is about how The Outer Worlds 2 is bigger in every way than The Outer Worlds 1, I think they also said it is their biggest game ever, that is naturally going to come with a bigger budget. Obsidian's own statements can be true whilst The Outer Worlds 2 still remains a fairly expensive game to make, I think that more speaks to how gross AAA budgets are nowadays.

But I don't understand why we're telling them to make The Outer Worlds 2 cost less than The Outer Worlds 1, Lol. The Outer Worlds 1 launched on the same date as Call of Duty, without Steam and at $60 and thrived, it went on to sell 5m+ copies and that's not even including player numbers which we don't know. It caused a sequel to be almost immediately greenlit, that despite a Steam CCU almost exactly the same as Avowed!

It's bigger in every single way than the $60 The Outer Worlds so why would they make it $50 when it's bigger, cost more to make and $60 was already a proven success for them. I mean sure, $50 would be even more sales but, everything would sell more if it cost less, Lol. I think $60 is what it SHOULD be. But I just wouldn't be angry at $70. But $80 is nonsense.

Lets meet in the middle and agree on $60

Hayabusa Helmet Returns | Operation: Legacy | Halo Infinite

The legendary Dragon Ninja returns to Halo to celebrate the release of NINJA GAIDEN 4 on October 21, 2025. Sleek, lethal, and true to its roots, the next generation of Project: HAYABUSA honors its past while looking to the future. Unlock the HAYABUSA ZOKUHEN bundle from The Exchange to claim the Hayabusa helmet and the new Sigma Dragon helmet attachment.

Available for a limited time tomorrow, June 10 through July 8.

Xbox 1st Party in 2025

• Avowed - February 18th
• South of Midnight - April 8th
• The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered - April 22nd
• Doom: The Dark Ages - May 15th
• Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 3 + 4 - July 11th
• Gears of War: Reloaded - August 26th
• Keeper - October 17th
• Ninja Gaiden 4 - October 21st
• The Outer Worlds 2 - October 29th
• Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 - TBD

+ Towerborne: Early Access (April 29th) & Grounded 2: Early Access (July 29th).

Total = 10 Full Releases + 2 Early Access.

Q1 = 1 Full Release
Q2 = 3 Full Releases
Q3 = 2 Full Releases
Q4 = 4 Full Releases

Nate was spot on with his prediction of 10 releases in 2025, Lol. Should be the final line-up for 2025 as long as there's no surprise shadow-drop, Lol. What a great line-up, a nice variety of big, medium and small scale titles, a nice variety of genres, a nice variety of new and old (remasters) and quality releases thus far, I think the only one that will likely be a miss quality wise is Black Ops 7, Lol.

If I'm being honest, I thought Black Ops 7 trailer looked very interesting then I saw it was Call of Duty and was like "Eh?" but then I did enjoy Black Ops 6 campaign quite a bit and I like that this is futuristic but all rumours point towards this CoD coming in extremely hot, so I'm expecting a big mess on launch but if it is actually good then I'll check it out like I did with Black Ops 6.

Are they? My biggest gripe is that it looks identical to the first game and that one was trashed by many for having bad graphics. IMO they were fine for X1 standards but it certainly wasn't a looker. But now, 6 years later, I expected better.

You talked about how gross AAA budgets are, which is of course correct, but...do Obsidian make AAA games? I don't think so. I don't look at Avowed, Outer Worlds, or Grounded and see AAA games. Outer Worlds 1 charged the industry standard, which is fair enough when you're in a sea of games charging the industry standard, and it's a standard that's been accepted or ages. It's an entirely different matter when you're one of the first games announced to be releasing at a new, more expensive standard the industry would like to adopt. Now you're getting compared to every game we've had before that was of a higher quality and the players got for less. You gotta show people something that makes them go "holy shit!" Obsidian makes good games. But they haven't made a "holy shit" game in ages. 

Anyway, it's a moot point I suppose. MS must be making the calculation that the vast majority of players will/should come from GP, and so whoever is absolutely determined to buy it instead might as well be paying the absolute maximum...question is, how many players you lose with that approach. On Xbox, probably not a whole lot. But on PC and PS (it's releasing on PS, right?), probably a fair few.

That's what I've been seeing on social media at least.

I do agree tho, the visuals aren't exactly anything to write home about. Just goes back to my point I made a second ago tho...Obsidian don't make AAA games. The production values don't even come close.

I consider New Vegas, The Outer Worlds 2 and Avowed to all be AAA in their respective timelines. Just because a lot of AAA titles today are $150m+ doesn't mean the $50m-$100m ones aren't AAA anymore. Obsidian titles probably have a similar budget to Remedy titles which are also AAA. Also, remember that Obsidian is based in California which is extremely expensive for videogame development, Lol.

The Outer Worlds 1 has an estimated budget of $30m-$40m according to CNET. Avowed's budget would have been higher given development costs have increased, it had a bigger team and was in development for longer. The Outer Worlds 2's is almost certainly higher budget than Avowed. We're probably looking at around $60m-$70m.

Also I'm fairly certain Obsidian have straight up labelled Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2 as AAA. Not The Outer Worlds 1...That was described something like "AA but with AAA values" or some marketing mumbo jumbo like that, Lol. IIRC The Outer Worlds 1 team was less than 100 and it was also published by an "indie" label (Private Division) which was under Take-Two (Lol).

The Outer World credits are 600...Avowed credits are 1,200. The Outer Worlds 2 is described as being Obsidian's biggest project yet, and having a bigger team than Avowed, so I would say without a doubt that both Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2 are AAA. Just on the mid-range of AAA like Remedy titles, not on the high end of AAA like Halo. And like I said, Obsidian is based in California, I believe that plays a crucial part in why they don't want to grow higher than 300 employees, Lol.

There's a massive range in AAA budgets nowadays, from $50m to $500m, Lmao.

As I said, I agree the $80 price tag is bollocks/stupid but I see no logical reason why The Outer Worlds 2 should cost less than The Outer Worlds 1 and all reasons given can be applied to every other videogame to turn them all into $50 releases but that's not going to happen, Lol. $60 is fine for The Outer Worlds 2 and what it should be.