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Ryuu96 said:

Forecasts Here.

My thoughts on some of these:

  • It seems like their Ghostwire Tokyo expectations were fairly reasonable at the time, I doubt it did that much under those goals, so maybe the planned sequel is still happening as of 2023
  • Redfall definitely didn't meet expectations, not even close. Those expectations were quite high, they were expecting about 3x the popularity of Deathloop for it and about 1/4th the popularity of  Starfield.
  • Hibiki (Hi-Fi Rush) had pretty low expectations, with the way we know it sold on Steam, I think they have met the expectations for it (albeit a year late since it was delayed)
  • Starfield performance was expected to be approximately 60% of TES 6 (that math checks out imo, based on how Starfield is actually performing I'd say it's lifetime popularity will be about 60% of Skyrim)
  • Big expectations for Doom #3, they are expecting to have 75% of the popularity of Starfield and nearly half the popularity of TES 6, don't know if it can perform that well
  • Revenue targets for Zenimax Online's Project Kestrel confirm it is a GaaS game, likely an MMO, not singleplayer like some hoped, as their revenue targets for year 2 are nearly as high as year 1 and that is only possible on a GaaS game such as an MMO. 
  • Indiana Jones expectation seem reasonable to me, less than half the popularity of Starfield is what they were expecting
  • Oblivion and Fallout 3 remaster expectations seem a tad muted to me, which tells me they either plan to sell for less than $70, or that they are indeed more remaster of the original graphics than remake with up-to-date graphics, and as such will have lower appeal
  • Project Platinum has fairly low expectations, so I don't think it is Wolfenstein 3, seems like whatever it is is expected to only about move about half of Indiana Jones. Maybe it is a Roundhouse game (the former original Prey guys)
  • The unknown licensed IP game has slightly lower revenue expectations than Indiana Jones, so I no longer think it is the Star Wars Mandalorian that Bethesda was rumored to have in the works 2 years ago, as that would definitely perform better than Indiana Jones. No idea what IP this could be now. 
  • Dishonored 3 revenue expectations seem very muted at just $90m in revenue in launch fiscal year (the same as Ghostwire Tokyo 2), they must have extremely low expectations for it after both Dishonored 2 and Dishonored Death of the Outsider underperformed. Either that or they are planning to release it very late in the fiscal year, like a early December release, without seeing 2nd year expectations for it it's hard to say.
Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 19 September 2023

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Ryuu96 said:

God I may have to take a few days break to avoid all the bad takes, console warriors, clickbait and out-of-context hot takes, Lmao.

I've skimmed through some stuff, did I miss some things? I feel like it was all business as usual and there was not that could be considered bad or smocking gun or anything else. 



I think with Zenimax line-up for the stuff that still exists we can probably just add another 2 years to the schedule and get a rough average of their release.

So FY22 becomes FY24. In which case maybe we could see Oblivion Remaster in Early 24 and Indiana Jones is further back in FY25 in late 2024.



Ryuu96 said:

God I may have to take a few days break to avoid all the bad takes, console warriors, clickbait and out-of-context hot takes, Lmao.

Pls, you live for this shit don’t even pretend like you don’t love this :P



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I expect Jaywood is working on a 10-part video series just from todays info.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Ryuu96 said:

I think with Zenimax line-up for the stuff that still exists we can probably just add another 2 years to the schedule and get a rough average of their release.

So FY22 becomes FY24. In which case maybe we could see Oblivion Remaster in Early 24 and Indiana Jones is further back in FY25 in late 2024.

Yeah, +2 years sounds about right to me, at least up until we reach the licensed IP and TES 6, which I think will be even further out that 2026. So that would make the Zenimax lineup:

2024

  • Starfield DLC
  • ESO Expansion
  • Oblivion Remaster
  • Indiana Jones (Q4 2024)

2025

  • Doom Year Zero
  • Zenimax Online Project Kestrel
  • ESO Expansion
  • Project Platinum (no idea which studio is making this one)

2026

  • Kestrel Expansion
  • ESO Expansion
  • Doom Year Zero DLC
  • Fallout 3 remaster
  • Ghostwire Tokyo 2
  • Dishonored 3

2027

  • Likely Kestrel and ESO expansion
  • Probably another smaller game from Tango
  • Licensed IP

2028

  • Likely Kestrel and ESO expansion
  • TES 6


EpicRandy said:
Ryuu96 said:

God I may have to take a few days break to avoid all the bad takes, console warriors, clickbait and out-of-context hot takes, Lmao.

I've skimmed through some stuff, did I miss some things? I feel like it was all business as usual and there was not that could be considered bad or smocking gun or anything else. 

No. You didn't, Lol.

The Zenimax line-up is actually very exciting, as long as it still remains mostly true. Sucks for the teams though.

The emails are interesting insights into how the executives think but mostly nothingburgers, it was nice to see how candid Phil was about 2022 and shows how eager he is to avoid a situation like that again.

People are losing their minds at the Nintendo email where Phil basically praises Nintendo as a prime asset in Gaming. How Xbox wants tighter collaboration with them. Talking about having opportunities for further collaboration thanks to a former Microsoft BoD member acquiring shares in Nintendo (which literally anyone in the world can do). But losing their minds at Phil suggesting he would love to acquire Nintendo despite the fact that he said he doesn't see a mutually agreeable angle where they could (as he would want Nintendo to agree to it). But would acquire Nintendo if they did agree to a merger.

Like oh shit, a big company would love to acquire a big company, breaking news! Acting as if their favourite big company wouldn't love to acquire other big companies if they could. But fantasy and dreams are just that, fantasy and dreams, and Microsoft cannot acquire Nintendo unless Nintendo agrees to it and if Nintendo agrees to it then bitch to them too. It's all irrelevant anyway, as the regulators would instantly block such a merger (as they should), Lmao. And I think after ABK that Phil would know this now.

Also it wasn't even Phil who brought the idea up at first, it was another dude he is responding to and agreeing with, Lol. If Xbox wants to acquire some shares in Nintendo though then I don't care...Not any worse than Saudi Arabia acquiring shares in Nintendo. Nintendo will likely see this, have a little chuckle, take the compliment and move on faster than "gamers" will.

Then we have your typical console warriors claiming Xbox is doomed because Sony knows every that Xbox is planning a mid-gen refresh despite the fact that Xbox already confirmed they weren't doing a Pro-console so all Sony learns is that their PS5 Pro which was already planned is going to release around the same time as a Digital Series X. Sony also learnt vague release times for certain games (despite the release dates being totally wrong now). Sony who won't even be able to change plans and react to most of this stuff in the short term just like Xbox wouldn't be able to change the Series X Digital at this stage.

Oh but they also learnt that Xbox is planning a next gen console in 2028 (which everyone expected anyway...) and they learnt that Xbox will use a GPU and CPU, Lmfao. Xbox may use a custom built GPU or a licensed GPU and if they go with custom built then we know fuck all about the performance capabilities. Oh but they may also use ARM (okay, ARM is a big fucking company, which makes tons of chipsets) so that tells us nothing on the specs either.

Half the stuff is too soon for Sony to react and the other half is vague as hell with not enough hard confirmation on plans, it's filled with "we may use this, or we may use that, we haven't even started building anything yet" with the added stipulation that things at 7 years away so new technologies will be available and it's a broad description of what they may use, it's like me saying I'm eating a packet of crips, it doesn't mean you know what damn crisps I'm eating, Lmao.

It was basically.

  • Xbox Gen 10 will launch in 2028.
  • They'll be a Series X All Digital Edition.
  • It'll be nice if we could own Nintendo if possible in my fantasy.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 19 September 2023

EpicRandy said:
Ryuu96 said:

God I may have to take a few days break to avoid all the bad takes, console warriors, clickbait and out-of-context hot takes, Lmao.

I've skimmed through some stuff, did I miss some things? I feel like it was all business as usual and there was not that could be considered bad or smocking gun or anything else. 

You need to read other sites because they are making a big deal out of the Nintendo part.  I agree nothing really all that astonishing besides their roadmap which is something they would definitely not want released to their competitors but outside of that nothing that is not expected.  There are some really good business insight into how Phil views the market which I found really interesting.



shikamaru317 said:
Ryuu96 said:

I think with Zenimax line-up for the stuff that still exists we can probably just add another 2 years to the schedule and get a rough average of their release.

So FY22 becomes FY24. In which case maybe we could see Oblivion Remaster in Early 24 and Indiana Jones is further back in FY25 in late 2024.

Yeah, +2 years sounds about right to me, at least up until we reach the licensed IP and TES 6, which I think will be even further out that 2026. So that would make the Zenimax lineup:

2024

  • Starfield DLC
  • ESO Expansion
  • Oblivion Remaster
  • Indiana Jones (Q4 2024)

2025

  • Doom Year Zero
  • Zenimax Online Project Kestrel
  • Project Platinum (no idea which studio is making this one)

2026

  • Ghostwire Tokyo 2
  • Dishonored 3

Project Platinum is MachineGames (I saw people say this, haven't confirmed it myself).

Did the rumours of Tango working on a JRPG come from a reliable source? I have a hard time believing they're working on Ghostwire Tokyo 2 Tbh...But I would expect multiple teams from Tango so maybe it's possible.

Dishonoured 3 would be led by Arkane Lyon, right? Who just finished up Deathloop?

I'm excited for Doom Year Zero, the title scream origin story but at the same time I'm a little "disappointed" that it's Doom again instead of a Quake reboot. I still love Doom though and it's an amazing franchise but I would have liked to see Quake revived properly as Doom already got that love.

Project Kestrel...2025...Seems about right...Maybe a reveal at E3 2024.

2024 will be interesting. If we get an Oblivion remaster and Indiana Jones in the same year, damn. Oblivion remaster should be moved away from Avowed which I expect will be Holiday 2024 so Oblivion ideally in Early 2024 but then we have Starfield's expansion, Lmao. Then we don't know where Hellblade, Towerborne and Flight Sim 2024 will land.

Did the Oblivion remaster leak (the original one) claim it was releasing in 2024?