shikamaru317 on 19 September 2023
| Ryuu96 said: Forecasts Here. |
My thoughts on some of these:
- It seems like their Ghostwire Tokyo expectations were fairly reasonable at the time, I doubt it did that much under those goals, so maybe the planned sequel is still happening as of 2023
- Redfall definitely didn't meet expectations, not even close. Those expectations were quite high, they were expecting about 3x the popularity of Deathloop for it and about 1/4th the popularity of Starfield.
- Hibiki (Hi-Fi Rush) had pretty low expectations, with the way we know it sold on Steam, I think they have met the expectations for it (albeit a year late since it was delayed)
- Starfield performance was expected to be approximately 60% of TES 6 (that math checks out imo, based on how Starfield is actually performing I'd say it's lifetime popularity will be about 60% of Skyrim)
- Big expectations for Doom #3, they are expecting to have 75% of the popularity of Starfield and nearly half the popularity of TES 6, don't know if it can perform that well
- Revenue targets for Zenimax Online's Project Kestrel confirm it is a GaaS game, likely an MMO, not singleplayer like some hoped, as their revenue targets for year 2 are nearly as high as year 1 and that is only possible on a GaaS game such as an MMO.
- Indiana Jones expectation seem reasonable to me, less than half the popularity of Starfield is what they were expecting
- Oblivion and Fallout 3 remaster expectations seem a tad muted to me, which tells me they either plan to sell for less than $70, or that they are indeed more remaster of the original graphics than remake with up-to-date graphics, and as such will have lower appeal
- Project Platinum has fairly low expectations, so I don't think it is Wolfenstein 3, seems like whatever it is is expected to only about move about half of Indiana Jones. Maybe it is a Roundhouse game (the former original Prey guys)
- The unknown licensed IP game has slightly lower revenue expectations than Indiana Jones, so I no longer think it is the Star Wars Mandalorian that Bethesda was rumored to have in the works 2 years ago, as that would definitely perform better than Indiana Jones. No idea what IP this could be now.
- Dishonored 3 revenue expectations seem very muted at just $90m in revenue in launch fiscal year (the same as Ghostwire Tokyo 2), they must have extremely low expectations for it after both Dishonored 2 and Dishonored Death of the Outsider underperformed. Either that or they are planning to release it very late in the fiscal year, like a early December release, without seeing 2nd year expectations for it it's hard to say.
