There are a couple of games I think we need to see at this upcoming Xbox conference that were already announced a while ago, and if we see nothing from them should raise major red flags. In my opinion, and in no particular order:

Avowed
Fable
Contraband
Hellblade 2
Perfect Dark

Some others I would start to feel concerned about if we don’t hear anything:

The Coalition: it has been 4 years since their last game release and 3 years since the last DLC.
Compulsion: we have heard next to nothing about what they are working on since they were purchased in 2018.
Inexile: it’s been 3 years since wasteland 3, and we have heard nothing since
Id: 3 years since doom eternal
Machine Games: 4 years since Young Blood

This shit HAS to get tiring for these ppl at some point.

I don't think not seeing Fable will raise major red flags, whether it is shown at this event or not, it ain't releasing until late 2024 at the earliest, Imo. Way more likely 2025. If it isn't shown it's more likely a marketing reason than a development one, likely see Avowed, Starfield in the show and think they already have enough WRPGs and Fable can wait.

Not seeing Contraband should be the red flag because that should definitely be releasing in 2024.

I think we'll see Avowed and Hellblade II and not seeing them would be worrying.

Perfect Dark I'm 50/50 on but once again I think not seeing it won't be a red flag.

The Coalition have reportedly only just moved "fully" over to Gears 6 (I.E. Full Production) only in Feb 2023-ish and they also helped create that Matrix Demo. Taking their time wouldn't be a red flag.

Compulsion should be here and not seeing it would potentially be a red flag.

InXile wouldn't be a red flag, they're a ~100 studio whose last title was an isometric AA RPG who are now expanding to a full blown AAA ARPG, in addition Wasteland 3 received expansions in 2021. InXile's RPG ain't likely releasing until late 2025 at the earliest.

ID Software did the quite large Doom Eternal Expansions which finished the story and based on the credits had a huge portion of the studio on them, so it is more like 2 years. I think we could see them but we might not, it depends on if it's yet another Doom Sequel or a New IP.

MachineGames is an odd one, my personal speculation is that they were working on Wolfenstein III but it was shelved in favour of Indiana Jones which we already know is very early in development.

Remember...Most AAAs nowadays take 3-4 years minimum for only sequels, new IPs and reboots take about 5-6 years on average, expanding your studio from AA to AAA or creating a new studio entirely adds even longer and then the setback from COVID. Most of these wouldn't be a red flag but simply deciding how many games you want to show which aren't releasing for years still.

I want to see whatever InXile is working on the wasteland universe so much :)
I have very little hope for something to be shown at the showcase but I'm still hoping!

Won’t matter what Microsoft show, games media at large is going to utterly slam the show as a disaster. I fully expect IGN to give it a 4/10.

Sorry to disappoint but it's a new IP

Please stop.

Hope people have learnt to ignore insiders hype.

Even though I consider Exta reliable, cause he usually is, I really don't care for his hyping, insiders are always trash at this.

Ignore it everyone, look at the PS showcase and how much that was overhyped...

In-Game Asset/Trailer = 6 Months.

CG Trailer = 2 Months.

Is the consensus that Microsoft just needs to show up with some of their already announced games to put the nail in Sony's coffin?

FWIW Nate said Avowed is going well & sounds very promising.

He believes Fable is 2025 at the earliest, it is making fine progress and it had some issues last year that have been already resolved (typical AAA development).