@kazuyamishima @trunkswd Maybe November 2022 will be competitive with November 2021 though, with the SV OLED edition and and then SV launching 2 weeks after that. Considering how the Splatoon 3 OLED and game itself made a pretty big splash on the Switch, I can see that repeating with Pokemon in November. Ultimately, I do expect Oct-Dec 2022 to be lower than Oct-Dec 2021, but I could see them potentially still squeaking past 10m for the quarter.

Yeah Scarlet/Violet is going to be huge.

It may not be the first new Pokemon generation on Switch, but look at what Splatoon 3 accomplished in spite of Splatoon 2 already being out on the same hardware.

You are right that November 2022 could be competitive with November 2021. Pokémon is well Pokémon and as you pointed out there is the limited edition Pokémon OLED model. I do agree that Switch sales will likely be down during the holidays, but will still have strong sales. 

@curl-6 To be fair, I always thought SV would have a bigger debut than SWSH because of the bigger install base, much like how SM opened bigger than XY (buoyed by Pokemon Go, but still) and BW opening bigger than DP. The question is whether or not SV could actually outsell SWSH lifetime. You mentioned Splatoon 3, which is selling gangbusters. I did expect it to start bigger than Splatoon 2, but it has actually been much bigger than I thought.

The idea that these two games can outsell their Switch debut counterparts is pretty incredible. Makes you wonder what Tears of the Kingdom can do. I could see it selling over 30m, but still falling short of BOTW by at least close to 10m, though I originally felt that SWSH and Splatoon 2 were never going to be topped by SV & Splatoon 3. We'll see what happens!

I've talked with @Machina and we decided to adjust up our Xbox One estimates based on the Microsoft install base figure for end of 2021. Here is the reasoning.

Microsoft Xbox install base at end of 2021:

• 63.7M

VGChartz estimates at end of 2021:

• X1: 50.5M
• XSX|S: 11.3M
• Combined: 61.8M

Difference:

• 1.9M

We aren't sure if it is shipped or sold, so for now we are going with shipped. So the difference would mostly be Xbox Series X|S stock on store shelves and in transit, and a very tiny bit of Xbox One stock. That would most likely be around 1 million or so, which leaves a max of ~900K to adjust up Xbox One estimates.

I'm going to work through the adjustments today. Though, it might take a bit longer to do. Machina has been a big help and worked out where we can adjust up and by how much. 

And why aren't we thinking Xbox Series X|S is undertracked? We have gotten enough data that our estimates should be close in the Americas, Europe, and Japan. Plus end of 2021 would only be 14 months of sales for Xbox Series X|S, while Xbox One is more like 8 years. 

The adjustment up is less than 3% of lifetime Xbox One estimates.