FIFA 23 Boosts PS5 and Xbox Series X|S Sales - Worldwide Hardware Estimates for Sep 25-Oct 1

[trunkswd]

I've talked with @Machina and we decided to adjust up our Xbox One estimates based on the Microsoft install base figure for end of 2021. Here is the reasoning.

Microsoft Xbox install base at end of 2021:

• 63.7M

VGChartz estimates at end of 2021:

• X1: 50.5M
• XSX|S: 11.3M
• Combined: 61.8M

Difference:

• 1.9M

We aren't sure if it is shipped or sold, so for now we are going with shipped. So the difference would mostly be Xbox Series X|S stock on store shelves and in transit, and a very tiny bit of Xbox One stock. That would most likely be around 1 million or so, which leaves a max of ~900K to adjust up Xbox One estimates.

I'm going to work through the adjustments today. Though, it might take a bit longer to do. Machina has been a big help and worked out where we can adjust up and by how much. 

And why aren't we thinking Xbox Series X|S is undertracked? We have gotten enough data that our estimates should be close in the Americas, Europe, and Japan. Plus end of 2021 would only be 14 months of sales for Xbox Series X|S, while Xbox One is more like 8 years. 

The adjustment up is less than 3% of lifetime Xbox One estimates. 

Last edited by trunkswd - on 15 October 2022