Final Fantasy XIII surely.
Depends which game launche earlier: FF13 or GT5.
Either way it won't be in 2008.
MGS4 has a small chance, but I think it won't make it. 800.000 or so seems more realistic.
Japan may have 6 or 7 million sellers on Wii before the PS3 gets one, but the Wii million sellers will likely all be 1st party. PS3 may get the 1st million seller from a 3rd party on a current generation console. FF13 PS3, GT5 PS3, FFCC Wii, or MH3 Wii looks to be the 1st 3rd party million seller in Japan.
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I think there is a possibility of it being MGS4 but FFXIII will do for sure!
Why does someone always bring up the wii in PS3 threads...

Possibly White Knight Chronicles, depending on how Japan centric it turns out to be and when it releases (in regards to install base).
I really like the look of WKC, hope that it turns out to be a great RPG (just what the PS3 is lacking at the moment)

Undoubtedly FF XIII, that will sell over 2m copies in Japan, even with only 3 or 4m userbase
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