drkohler said:
SecondWar said:
Just to clarify, the distance between Aleppo and Damascus is 350km, which I’d say is a pretty big gap. The two cities are pretty much on the opposite sides of the country.
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Amd just to clarify one thing:
The "Rebels" are a comglomerate of mostly wannabe-fighter groups, under the control and leadership of ISIS.
The last thing you want is ISIS controlling Syria. (Aleppo was sort-of "captured" by the Kurds when they saw Assad's troups running away and ISIS not moving in - so they took the opportunity. They don't really have a chance holding Aleppo once ISIS realises their blunder).
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There's so many factions in this conflict, Tahrir al-Sham (Syrian Salvation Government) are not under the control and leadership of ISIS but do have Islamic extremists in their ranks. They (HTS) were an off-shoot of Al-Qaeda, not ISIS. In 2016 they officially broke up with Al-Qaeda and are now their enemy and since have been apparently purging extremists from their ranks in an effort to be internationally recognised and accepted. Alongside Al-Qaeda, ISIS is also their enemy and they've been fighting each other for years now.
They even killed ISIS leader last year with help from Türkiye
They've been over the recent years trying to appear more moderate in an effort to appeal to Western states.
HTS's ideology has changed dramatically since Jolani's days leading an al Qaeda affiliate. HTS's current political-religious ideology frames the group as strictly Syria-focused and religiously moderate. Since 2017, HTS has incorporated various independent religious and political leaders into its internal institutions to appease factions and build a religious bureaucracy, a process that has helped moderate the group, at least on the surface. While HTS presents itself as less ideologically extreme than al Qaeda or ISIS, the brutal measures HTS uses to maintain control over its territory are a far cry from the benevolent, citizen-led government shown on its media outlets. Today, HTS is more recognizable as an authoritarian statelet than the transnational Islamist militia it once was.
Jolani has used the group's public appearance of moderation to appeal for HTS's removal from the list of U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations. In various interviews, he has outlined a more tolerant vision of governance, explaining that HTS would uphold Sharia law, "but not according to the standard of ISIS or even Saudi Arabia." The group's public content has sought to mold Jolani's image into that of a responsible and caring leader, releasing videos of him eating iftar with orphans, attending graduations, and speaking to community leaders. HTS's public relations strategy has included clear appeals to Western media, particularly Jolani's feature on a 2021 PBS Frontline special. Beyond the messaging campaign, there have been some substantive signs of moderation within the group, including limiting the power of the so-called morality police. Despite any moves towards religious moderation, HTS has shown limited tolerance for political dissent, reacting swiftly and harshly to any protests or civilian complaints. The group has been criticized for its arrest and torture of journalists and political opponents.
Examining Extremism: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) | Examining Extremism | CSIS
It could all be bullshit and likely is bullshit, I anticipate they will be not much different than Iran's current leadership, I wish we just blew up Assad and supported the Kurds a lot more because I'd much rather them than HTS and Türkiye's support of various elements of the Syrian Rebels has been a major conflict point between Türkiye and the rest of NATO.
Türkiye also hates the Kurds who we support, Assad himself is a monster and inflicted more harm on his own people than any of these groups as well so ultimately whether they've changed or not remains to be seen, the only known positive would be weakening Russia (and killing Assad). But the situation in Syria is a lot more complex than that of Ukraine with all the factions involved.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 01 December 2024