Zkuq

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Zkuq 1 day ago

RolStoppable said:

Zkuq said:

^On its own, the war is going to be at best a pyrrhic victory for Russia. But depending on how things go from there - if they ever win it in the first place - it could pave the way for a proper strategic victory of some sort. Our clear willingness to wage war here in the West is certainly encouraging Putin, and sadly there's no clear indicators of that changing even if Russia swallows up Ukraine. I can understand why we didn't arm Ukraine more strongly before the war even started, but if another similar situation ever arises, we should very promptly and strongly support whatever ally is threatened. I'm just not confident we've understood that.

Within a few sentences you go from downplaying what is in it for Russia to explaining how much they have to gain from it. Russia can win because the West lets them.

We can only hope that the West shifts gears once Harris is elected to be the next president, because for the past few months the West has just been sitting on their thumbs fearing a Trump victory.

Well, Russia has performed terribly and has relatively little to gain from Ukraine alone, but the West has also done terribly and most importantly demonstrated where we stand, which opens up opportunities for Russia. I'm sure we had actual red lines too, I just don't have the faintest idea of where they might be, which leads me to thinking they're not really close. A Harris victory could help tremendously, because even our indecisiveness could be enough for a somewhat acceptable strategic outcome, because I doubt Russia can wage war at this intensity for four more years. Completely withdrawal of US support on the other hand would be terrible, which is probably the worst-case scenario if Trump wins.

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BFR 1 day ago

With only ~40% of the Diaspora left to count (where Sandu leads comfortably with over 80%), the gap with Stoianoglo is now over 5%.

Sandu wins over her Pro-Russian opponent. pic.twitter.com/bTll6QhVO5
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 3, 2024

Last edited by BFR - 1 day ago

shavenferret

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shavenferret 20 hours ago

Instruction manual for digging mass graves given to Russian troops
The 20-page textbook details the equipment and manpower needed to bury the growing number of casualties in Ukraine

https://today.yougov.com/elections/us/2024

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shavenferret 20 hours ago

North Koreans Fire on Russian Soldiers in Kursk! Russian Soldiers Surrender to Ukraine

How is this working for you, putin? lmao

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shavenferret 20 hours ago

https://global.espreso.tv/ukraine-ukraine-to-have-its-own-cruise-ballistic-missiles-by-2025?amp

Ukraine is working on its own cruise and ballistic missiles, which could be in service with the Defense Forces as early as 2025.

I've read elsewhere that full production will be achieved in mid 2025. So, next year for kerch bridge to kaput?

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shavenferret 11 hours ago

Russian troops have 700K casualties, reported by Ukrainian general staff

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Bofferbrauer2 7 hours ago

Covert Cabal is counting vehicles at bases again, this time at the 111th Central Tank Storage Base

While the base still has 272 (out of 1030 originally) tanks left and 830 (out of originally 941) BMPs, the vehicles that are left are mostly deeply rusted and look like the vehicles from a Fallout game or some post-apocalyptic movie, as evidenced by some drone pictures that people made from the mostly totally unsecured base.

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Ryuu96 4 hours ago

1. There has been "zero" response to North Korean troops in Russia prepared to fight Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine has been prohibited to strike North Koreans by the US until they come on Ukraine soil. Some say this is a sign of the West's defeat 2/https://t.co/DenHOoH7b3
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 2, 2024

2. Russia has escalated attacks on Ukrainian cities, with 2000 Shahed drones in October up by 40% from September. This is 66 drones every day. 3/https://t.co/a6IlZlUV1C
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 2, 2024

So, instead of responding in kind and increasing support, the US has supplied only 10% of defense aid authorized by the Congress this year 5/https://t.co/UrS3ibcFGH
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 2, 2024

Most amazingly, there is still talk in Washington and other western capitals about "de-escalation" or "not escalating further". It is Russia that is escalating in response to weakness of the West and, specifically, the US administration 7X https://t.co/DcyPTTjQlH
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 2, 2024

“Strategic arthritis” pretty much explains this. https://t.co/dLvqu61hkU
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) November 2, 2024

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Ryuu96 4 hours ago

Russia has genuine weaknesses, but short-term manpower is low on list. Ru faces problem w/ rising fiscal burden of recruitment & pol risk of having to widen recruitment base. Bigger issue is artillery/armour shortages in 2025. But Ukr has acute issues that will manifest sooner. https://t.co/PSnW6ZpxWn
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) November 2, 2024

Challenge for Ukraine (& allies) is maintaining its defences & hanging on until such a time that Russian problems pile up. If that doesn't happen risk is either deeper & more serious Ru advances or bad deal that leaves Ukr vulnerable to another invasion. https://t.co/fLEeZBzRje
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) November 2, 2024

The western fear of escalation has reached such high levels, that the US feels the need to separately emphasize that North Korean soldiers fighting the Ukrainians are legitimate military targets.

Saying that out loud is almost comical. What would even be the alternative?… https://t.co/c8Y1GLGuvz
— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) November 2, 2024

Correct, we have seen this same narrative of desperate Putin hiring North Korean soldiers coming from Britain's UN office and from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte

Russia uses NK troops to augment defensive operations in Kursk at a time when Ukraine has manpower shortages https://t.co/L5fszgK600
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) November 2, 2024

Three more awkward questions:

What is the point of Western countries announcing a ‘pivot to Asia’ or an ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’, if when Asia’s super-rogue state — North Korea — comes knocking on Europe’s door with soldiers armed by the enemy to kill Europeans, the door is left… https://t.co/dlzTyep3bx
— Sir John Chipman IISS (@chipmanj) November 2, 2024

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Ryuu96 4 hours ago

“We have the rockets. But we can’t use them to wallop Russian airfields,” Isaiev said. “Until the US gets over its nervousness, we will lose territory.” https://t.co/yNxDsul0iX
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) November 3, 2024

Apart from VDV reinforcement arrived to 155 marine brigade (also my flank).

So right now there a couple of Russian units that will have Korean soldiers:

- 810 marine brigade (centre);
- 11 VDV brigade (right flank);
- 106 VDV division: left flank;
- 56 VDV: left flank
— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) November 2, 2024

And what do we hear from the West?

«We don’t know what they gonna do».

Pathetic cowards.

Sometimes I think that Ukraine like Cadia from W40K — must hold and fight with everyone. But what happened with Cadia?
— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) November 2, 2024

If Russia used a tenth of the effort they do meddling in other countries to actually make Russia a normal country it would be a prosperous, democratic, stable country at peace at home and with its neighbors https://t.co/av4L6iLQFo
— Bakhti Nishanov (@b_nishanov) November 3, 2024

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