Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Zkuq]

RolStoppable said:

Zkuq said:

^On its own, the war is going to be at best a pyrrhic victory for Russia. But depending on how things go from there - if they ever win it in the first place - it could pave the way for a proper strategic victory of some sort. Our clear willingness to wage war here in the West is certainly encouraging Putin, and sadly there's no clear indicators of that changing even if Russia swallows up Ukraine. I can understand why we didn't arm Ukraine more strongly before the war even started, but if another similar situation ever arises, we should very promptly and strongly support whatever ally is threatened. I'm just not confident we've understood that.

Within a few sentences you go from downplaying what is in it for Russia to explaining how much they have to gain from it. Russia can win because the West lets them.

We can only hope that the West shifts gears once Harris is elected to be the next president, because for the past few months the West has just been sitting on their thumbs fearing a Trump victory.

Well, Russia has performed terribly and has relatively little to gain from Ukraine alone, but the West has also done terribly and most importantly demonstrated where we stand, which opens up opportunities for Russia. I'm sure we had actual red lines too, I just don't have the faintest idea of where they might be, which leads me to thinking they're not really close. A Harris victory could help tremendously, because even our indecisiveness could be enough for a somewhat acceptable strategic outcome, because I doubt Russia can wage war at this intensity for four more years. Completely withdrawal of US support on the other hand would be terrible, which is probably the worst-case scenario if Trump wins.