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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

Farsala on 20 April 2022
SanAndreasX said:
Farsala said:

And people wonder why the US always keeps a strong military. Well, since WW2 that reason is because of Russia.

And China as well.

And as much as the Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam wars were criticized, it’s also acknowledged that the US military has a huge advantage over Russia and especially China in terms of modern warfighting experience. 

They can be criticized, but they were definitely US favored. Iraq and Afghanistan were pretty much complete victories for the US, but nobody can control what comes next except their own people. Vietnam would also be a victory for the US, but the people wouldn't allow more losses for questionable motives.

I still think the US could easily beat any single country on its own, without taking into account the will of the people.

The technology, military doctrine and tactics, logistics, and manpower is just unmatched.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 21 April 2022
Farsala said:
SanAndreasX said:

And China as well.

And as much as the Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam wars were criticized, it’s also acknowledged that the US military has a huge advantage over Russia and especially China in terms of modern warfighting experience. 

They can be criticized, but they were definitely US favored. Iraq and Afghanistan were pretty much complete victories for the US, but nobody can control what comes next except their own people. Vietnam would also be a victory for the US, but the people wouldn't allow more losses for questionable motives.

I still think the US could easily beat any single country on its own, without taking into account the will of the people.

The technology, military doctrine and tactics, logistics, and manpower is just unmatched.

The US has the strongest military, no questions asked. The thing is though that they have no clue at all what to do after they crushed the initial military opposition, which results into absolutely ineffective occupations and as a result, militias taking up arms against them.

One major problem is that for decades the US military have heavily promoted wars to be basically loss-free in terms of human lives. Of course, when the soldiers actually start dying, this mentality absolutely tanks the will of the population to continue the war.



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TallSilhouette on 21 April 2022

A commentator I follow gives his two cents on the current state of the war and Russian economy:

Tl;dw: The restabilization of the Russian economy is artificial; ok in the short term, fucked in the long term. Likely outcomes at this point are either a small territorial win or big humiliating loss for them. Time favors Ukraine.



SecondWar on 21 April 2022

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61179640

Continental Europe seeing if reducing demand/need for gas can help with the dependence on Russian energy. No sure how effectively it'll be given what people can be like but even a small dent would be something.



SanAndreasX on 21 April 2022
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

They can be criticized, but they were definitely US favored. Iraq and Afghanistan were pretty much complete victories for the US, but nobody can control what comes next except their own people. Vietnam would also be a victory for the US, but the people wouldn't allow more losses for questionable motives.

I still think the US could easily beat any single country on its own, without taking into account the will of the people.

The technology, military doctrine and tactics, logistics, and manpower is just unmatched.

The US has the strongest military, no questions asked. The thing is though that they have no clue at all what to do after they crushed the initial military opposition, which results into absolutely ineffective occupations and as a result, militias taking up arms against them.

One major problem is that for decades the US military have heavily promoted wars to be basically loss-free in terms of human lives. Of course, when the soldiers actually start dying, this mentality absolutely tanks the will of the population to continue the war.

Occupations in general are difficult. Russia didn’t do any better in Afghanistan. Occupations like Japan under MacArthur are very, very rare, and MacArthur orchestrated everything carefully. He made sure that Tojo got all the blame for WWII and portrayed Hirohito as a figurehead to Washington brass, in order to spare Hirohito from being tried and hanged. He knew that the Japanese still venerated Hirohito. He also appeared in public with Hirohito, which was unheard of for a Japanese Emperor. The Japanese had also expected to be treated the same way losers were traditionally treated in Asian wars, which was unchecked brutality, and were pleasantly surprised  

The second thing is definitely worth thinking about, and I even read an Atlantic Monthly article arguing that trying to make wars more humane actually made them worse. The article wasn’t arguing that we should go out there and commit war crimes and genocides, but it did point out the aversion to casualties that has made wars politically difficult. 



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TallSilhouette on 21 April 2022

Month old article, but a good summation of the weaknesses of authoritarian regimes and how Putin's is no exception, explaining what could have caused him to make such a massive blunder in the first place:

Putin Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap



Farsala on 22 April 2022

I think Russia will make a push on Victory Day, rather than try to achieve victory by then.

That way when they gain a tiny bit of ground from their advance, they can claim some sort of victory.



drkohler on 22 April 2022

Re: Last few Ryuu96 messages which I am unable to quote sections only from (like his previous messages...)

These leaked Moskva numbers are dead on with my estimate of 40% losses a few days ago. Seems the Russian navy is indeed as professional as the land forces...



SecondWar on 22 April 2022
Ryuu96 said

Kinda obvious that Russia hasn’t been honest about its intentions throughout the war. Figured they’d want to involve Transnistria at some point. Also, Russian make up less than 30% of the population of Transnistria, so it’s an even more poorly veiled excuse for a land-grab.

drkohler said:

Re: Last few Ryuu96 messages which I am unable to quote sections only from (like his previous messages...)

These leaked Moskva numbers are dead on with my estimate of 40% losses a few days ago. Seems the Russian navy is indeed as professional as the land forces...

You actually are. It’s a bit fiddly, but you can delete tweets out of the quote to just leave the ones you want (as I’ve done above).



Zkuq on 22 April 2022

It's actually surprising how close the Ukrainian numbers for Russian casualties are. That said, with those numbers, Ukraine doesn't really have any reason to lie about the numbers.

Ryuu96 said:

Oh no, I'm absolutely terrified! Terrified, I tell you! ...Oh wait, I'm not. Russia is not exactly doing a good job with this war thing, and we're well prepared.