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Forums - Politics Discussion - Russia and Ukraine flashpoint



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Practical solution = Telling America to do one.



NGL...This just reads like "Israel gets whatever they want from us because they're called Israel" and comes across as a lot of words but all nonsense. The missiles which Russia lobs at Ukraine are more advanced than the junk Iran lobs at Israel once every blue moon and Israel has the luxury of America, British and French fighter jets coming to their rescue as well, along with their own massive military capability and Iron Dome.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 1 day ago

@crissindahouse Who is this dude and does he have any influence?



Ryuu96 said:

Don't really get how Europe can't produce what Ukraine needs but Ukraine under war and constant bombardment can?

Unlike in the US or Ukraine where the military industry is under the defense ministry, in Europe it's all fully independent companies that no nation can direct into doing something like raising productions or opening new production lines. All they can do is order more and hope they deliver on the order on time... or at all.

Europe would need to supervise and integrate their military-industrial complex more, and that's something that countries like France already suggested for decades. Something that got blocked mostly by easter European countries mostly on the ground that "we got NATO" (and yes, Sweden also did so despite NOT being a NATO partner at the time) - and by pointing at the french state-owned company GIAT (until 2001, then rebranded as NEXTER until 2015), which operated at a loss for most of it's existence. Those losses got so big and expensive for the French state that the company merged with KMW to form KNDSm of which the french state is just a stakeholder anymore.

Had the company still in the hands of the French Government, I'm sure they would have ramped up production quite signifcantly on orders of the government, but alas now they can't do so anymore.



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Ryuu96 said:

Why do I get the feeling Scholz is going to attempt to throw Ukraine under the bus, I know he says no decisions about Ukraine's fate without the consent of Ukrainians but it just feels weird how much I'm hearing lately about Germany trying to talk to Putin, any talks with Putin should have Zelenskyy included, unless Ukraine gives permission for a country to talk to Putin about what happens in Ukraine. If Ukraine doesn't give such permission or isn't involved in the talks then it's a waste of time, it's not up to Germany what happens in Ukraine.

What I feel like lately is Europe is waiting on the US Election and that will decide what happens, if Trump wins I just have the horrible feeling that Europe is going to piss itself and throw Ukraine under the bus, likely try to force Ukraine to accept defeat and shitty concessions, to the rage of Eastern Europe. But maybe I'm just too cynical lately. 

Escalation management was and is all about managing a status quo with no commitment to bring an end to the war, neither in Ukraine or Israel. It's a strategy that logically ends with the conclusion that the whole issue will be the next elected leader's problem to solve. Additionally, the situation with the USA is especially dire because the two candidates have very different views on these wars, so weak Europe has to play the waiting game.

As for Germany specifically, the country is now entering the early stage of the next national election in September 2025. All the parties are deciding on their candidate for chancellor, so it's the time when the designated guys begin to test the waters. Softening the stance on support for Ukraine has also been done by Germany's conservative party and leader, because East Germany still romanticizes its time as a Russian satellite state. Parroting the far-right is a proven failed strategy, but politicians' memories are short-lived, so they keep doing it.

But what can Scholz actually do? Throwing Ukraine under the bus isn't something that he could get done in his coalition within the next ten months, and his chances for re-election are absolutely pathetic with the SPD polling at around half of the conservative CDU which is destined to win with ease; I very much doubt that voters' opinions will shift dramatically until the election. Are the conservatives trustworthy on Ukraine? Not really; their recipe for success is to go with the flow of public opinion, so it really depends on how the population of Germany answers in surveys. Up till now questions on the Ukraine war haven't been in clear favor of either side which is part of the reason why escalation management has been the name of the game; the other part being that Scholz is a coward.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Ryuu96 said:

@crissindahouse Who is this dude and does he have any influence?

Merz is the leader of the conservative CDU and designated candidate for chancellor in next year's election. Currently he is the leader of the biggest opposition party because the CDU isn't in the government coalition.

He's an important guy, but his influence is limited because in order to get anything done, he would need a sizeable amount of dissenters among the government coalition of SPD, Greens and liberals, because the other two remaining parties are Russia-friendly. He has made plenty of suggestions and demands over the years, but almost everything got shot down and the few wins on his record fall usually into the category of immigration issues in Germany.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

What Rol said. His party has the biggest support in Germany right now (but younger people mostly dislike it except some living outside the bigger cities) but they have no chance to rule alone. He's from the same party chancellors like Merkel and Kohl have been from but a rather disliked politician. Merkel was always seen positive even when most weren't happy with her decisions but Merz isn't even liked by many voters of his own party lol.

He criticized Scholz to fool around with Ukraine talking about the support for them so he's definitely more pro military support to Ukraine as Scholz is but the political situation is so toxic in Germany right now and the Right with AfD and Left with newly build BSW who are pro Putin are strong now.

So yeah, even if he will be the next chancellor, there's many who will try to block his decisions



The Victory Plan consists of five points – geopolitical, two military, economic, and security-related – and three secret annexes. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the content of the Victory Plan during his address to the Verkhovna Rada.

The first point is an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. According to the Head of State, the fact of Ukraine's invitation to NATO could become fundamental for peace and serve as a signal to the Russian dictator that his geopolitical calculations have failed.

“Determination on the NATO issue for Ukraine also means the inevitability of European integration for Ukraine and the fact that there is no alternative to democracy in Ukraine. That is why this is the initial point of the Victory Plan. The first and very important point. The sign of determination. This is what the invitation is. An unconditional invitation right now,” the President emphasized.

The second point is defense. It outlines the irreversible strengthening of Ukraine's defense against the aggressor. Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned that there is a clear list of weapons capable of sustaining the necessary strength of Ukrainian warriors.

The implementation of this point envisages further operations by the Defense Forces in designated areas of Russia, strengthening Ukrainian positions, and destroying Russia's offensive potential in the occupied territories.

It is also based on the assistance of partners, in particular in equipping reserve brigades for the AFU, bolstering air defense, shooting down Russian drones and missiles jointly with partners, investing in Ukrainian defense production, lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, providing appropriate long-range capabilities and real-time satellite and intelligence data.

“The defense point of the Plan has a secret annex – and it is accessible only to those partners who have the appropriate military assistance capabilities,” the President noted.

The third point is deterrence. Ukraine offers to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory, sufficient to protect the country from any military threat posed by Russia.

“The deterrence package is the fact that Russia is either going into diplomacy or going to lose its war machine. Peace through strength,” the Head of State emphasized.

This point also contains a secret annex, already shared with the U.S., the leaders of the UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

The fourth point is strategic economic potential. Ukraine offers its strategic partners a special agreement for the joint protection of the country's critical resources, as well as joint investment and use of this economic potential.

This involves natural resources and critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars, including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and other strategically valuable resources, which are a significant advantage in global competition.

“The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with Ukraine's globally important energy and food production potential, are among the key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war. And this is our opportunity for growth,” the President said.

This point also has a secret annex that is only shared with designated partners.

The fifth point is security-related. It is designed for the post-war period and involves, if partners agree, the replacement of certain U.S. military contingents stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units that have gained real experience in modern warfare, the use of Western weapons, and cooperation with NATO troops.

“This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the defense of the entire Alliance and ensure security in Europe. This is a worthy mission for our heroes,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded.

Victory Plan Consists of Five Points and Three Secret Annexes — Official website of the President of Ukraine



Ryuu96 said:

NGL...This just reads like "Israel gets whatever they want from us because they're called Israel" and comes across as a lot of words but all nonsense. The missiles which Russia lobs at Ukraine are more advanced than the junk Iran lobs at Israel once every blue moon and Israel has the luxury of America, British and French fighter jets coming to their rescue as well, along with their own massive military capability and Iron Dome.

It is probably an attempted bribe to get Netanyahu not to attack Nuclear or Oil facilities in Iran. Iran will retaliate anyway and Netanyahu is dead set on provoking more attacks. Probably won't work anyway, Netanyahu already broke Biden's promise to Lebanon that Beirut would be off limits for further air strikes.

Yet Biden/Harris needs to keep up PR, can't have an oil crisis right before elections. So here's THAAD, please don't make a big mess in Iran. However Netanyahu will only see it as more of a reason to make a big mess...

Ukraine needs it far more, while Israel needs better protection against drones, not missiles.